Zelenskiy: Political Corpse

In the Hopes of a Funeral

Zelenskiy has been referred to as a “political corpse” by the Secretary of the Ukrainian National Security Council and advised, given that status, to focus his attention on saving Ukraine as opposed to saving his Presidency. In other words, if he is being forced towards a ceasefire or frozen conflict situation (neither of which is going to happen right now, in my view), then he can no longer legally extend the period in which elections are postponed, there will have to be elections, and he will lose the elections. Why? Because he is a horrible politician, a liar, a foreign agent, a sociapath who has sacrificed hundreds of thousands of the lives of his own countrymen and countrywomen, ruined his entire nation and its future, simply because he hoisted himself to the fantasy that being a member of NATO would somehow, with no evidence whatsoever to support the notion, miraculously bring about heaven on earth for Ukraine.

Maybe he will be replaced by Zaluzhnyi. Zaluzhnyi’s record in this war is not a good one and I see nothing good for Ukraine that a Zaluzhnyi presidency will bring about. Other than a presidential candidate who is prepared to sign off on Ukraine’s immediate capitulation, there is nobody likely to come to power who will aim to make things better for Ukraine. Which means that they will get worse, considerably worse, thus preparing the ground, as Gordon Hahn has recently argued, for a revolution.

I dont see the war coming to an end. Zelenskiy is doing everything possible to keep the war going. His administration talks of the foothold in Krynky as a manouver which will ultimately form part of a renewed Ukrainian counteroffensive on Crimea (to be distinghished, therefore, from a procedure for sending inexperienced soldiers in small boats and freezing temperatures across the Dnieper to be exterminated by Russian FPV drones).

Given the strength of Russian fortifications between the Dnieper and Crimea this is simply never going to happen. But it extends the war. Every bit of Western aid, even as it is running down and running low on operability, recency and overall quality, is a further argument for Zelenskiy that the new, whatever it is, will help Ukraine win the war. It is not impossible that Washington will vote through some more aid for Ukraine in the coming weeks, so that too will be used by Zelenskiy as another reason why he can focus on saving himself, and not Ukraine. Talk of F16s, as though these can possibly compete with Russian Suhoi 34s and 35s or make any difference to the war in Ukraine’s favor, is just another fantasy that serves the same function.

In the meantime, in the real Ukraine, Ukraine’s air defenses are teetering on the edge of viability, and Russia has more and more convincing control in the air, rendering the importance of Ukrainian drones insignificant.

As I argued yesterday the big question is whether we should be expecting a major Russian offensive: there are strong advantages for Russia in maintaining a relatively low-intensity attritional war: it is cheaper, at any one time; it attrites not just Ukraine, but also the enemy; this weakens the enemy in many ways, including in the emerging Middle East war as the ground is laid for a Western provocation against Lebanon and Iran and, further down the line, in China; it is more controlable, more predictable. On the other hand, Russia has to be ready for a moment when the advantages are so stacked in its favor that it must seize its chance to make a dramatic difference to the conflict and take away whatever initiative remains in the hands of Ukraine or the collective West.

Battlefields

There has been another major Russian missile and drone strike across Ukraine. For the first time Ukraine has admitted to not being able to shoot down more than 50% of all projectiles, including four kinzhals, an X-22, and a ballistic missile. This turnaround in accuracy of reporting shoot-downs is probably Zelenskiy’s attempt to whip up growing concern in the collective West and attempting to force further assistance in the supply of weapons. There was a heavy strike on Khmelnitskiy; two power plants were destroyed in Kharkiv which, at least for a time, lacked electric power and transportation; there was a massive strike on drone warehouses and railways in the town of Zelenskiy’s birth, namely Krbyi Rix.

Russia continues to make moderate progress in Kupyansk and Lyman (especially in the area east of Terny and Nevske). In the Bakhmut area Russia is advancing in the Poprovka forest, south of Bohdanivka, and strengthening Russian positions close to Kleshchiivka. In Avdiivka, Russia is advancing up the railway line towards Ochertyne, strengthening positions south of Tonenke and Sieverne, and enjoying increasing control over supply routes into Avdiivka while inflicting heavy casualties on Ukraine. West of Marinka, it is advancing beyond the Osykovo reservoir. South of Novomykhailivka, Russia is stepping back: this may be a retreat to a line of Russian fortification to the south of the settlement, and it may be because Russia wishes to continue to throw FAB bombs on the settlement without threatening its own men.

Gaza

A stream of Western chatter continues apace without any effective moves to engage in meaningful conversation with anyone that matters whether that be Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran, Iraq, Syria, the Arab States, Russia, while, in the meantime, the number of deaths and wounded approaches 60,000 or more and the Israeli regime and the people of Israel are given liberty to float above rational thought and create the conditions for World War 3 which, this time around, looks likely to destroy the collective West and Israel. Mainstream western media including, so shamefully, CNN, give voice only to the lies of Tel Aviv, while their governments exert pressure on social media to drown out the human wail of anger against their enforced silence and complicity and even many of the most rational commentators in the alternative media sphere strive to give the appearance that this is simply a conflict between two equal combatants as though this makes them look “sensible,” and “ balanced.” It makes them look like patsies.