World War Three?

Dima of the Military Summary Channel reported around midday yesterday (California time) that there have been three “Ukrainian” (I.e. NATO) attacks in the last two to three days using cruise missiles on Russian ammo depots in Tver and Krasnodar regions. These have caused significant damage, showing, most importantly, that even some of the largest of Russia’s many thousands of ammo depots have insufficient or perhaps no air defense.

Western media sources that I have so far seen appear to be downplaying these Ukrainian attacks or ignoring them. It tends to be assumed that these attacks are “drone” attacks. I note that Dima claims that cruise missiles were involved, but he does not return to this story in his broadcast earlier this morning of Sunday, September 22 (California time). To my mind there is a major contradiction between what we so far know to be the low explosive capacity of drones and the magnitude of damage that has been captured in satellite photos.

If indeed, Western crusise missiles are indeed involved in these attacks, then conditions have now been met for Russia to consider itself at war directly with NATO. Russia has presumed this outcome and will have readied its responses.

I note that in his most recent broadcast a couple of hours or so ago by Alexander Mercouris he is skeptical that cruise missiles were involved, but presumes that the destructive capacity of Ukrainian drones have simply been amplified. While he may be right, I see no good reason for such complacency in the absence of much better information. It is possible, to my mind, that both sides right now are finding it convenient not to acknowledge the use of cruise missiles.

Bear in mind that these recent Ukrainian attacks are occurring in a context in which Russia continues on a nightly basis to target Ukrainian energy facilities, and that Russian forces are making significant advances along all combat lines from Zapporizhzhia to Kupyansk. Ukraine continues to exert nuisance value in Kursk but I don’t believe this is fatal.

Dima cites Ukrainian sources to the effect that Russia will now escalate to attacking the perimeters of Ukrainian nuclear power stations with a view to compelling Ukrainian authorities to close these down. He also considers that these attacks may represent a form of “pilot” prior to Zelenskiy’s meeting with Biden early in the coming week, at which point the two leaders may be drawing their conclusions as to the opening phase of what has been called Zelenskiy’s “victory plan.”

I shall return to this column within the next 12 hours or so.