World War Roundup

Russia’s Oreshnik/Hazel Missile

The Russian command center in Kursk that was the target of a NATO Storm Shadow attack that then provoked the launch by Russia of an intermediate ballistic kinzhal missile (the Oreshnik) on a missile production factory in Kursk on Thursday was unlikely, according to one commentator (Simplicius the Thinker) to have had the most powerful air defense assets, given the small size of the settlement, so that it is not surprising that not all Storm Shadows were shot down. Any air defenses would have been targets for Ukrainian drones.

The command center was unlikely to have been very important, but rather one that functioned at battalion level or lower. The Russian Ministry has said that Russian defense minister Belousov had been visiting Kursk to meet Commander Lapin of the Russian Forces North and it is not inconceivable that the command center at which Belousov met with Lapin was the target of the Storm Shadow attack or that NATO forces mistakenly believed that Belousov and Lapin were present there. Alexander Mercouris notes in his podcast yesterday that the 12 Storm Shadows and HIMARS rockets involved would be incredible overkill to attack just one small command center.

Belousov, presumably uninjured, appears to have been available for a meeting later with Putin at which he claimed that Moscow had ground down Kiev’s best military units and derailed Ukraine’s military objectives for 2025.

Russian Economy

For Intellinews, Ben Aris, no friend of Russia, has recently dissected the bad news for Russia’s economy in 2025 (Aris), starting with the Central Bank’s high interest rate of 21% (applied precisely in order to slow down a booming economy, we should understand), reaching 25% once bank premiums are factored in. Aris sees a danger for Russia of significant commercial debt with floating rate interest payments.

The cost of borrowing, he claims, is pushing many companies towards a dangerous debt spiral, with interest payments consuming one out of every four rubles they earn. Late payments from customers and partners have also been climbing. The share of corporate loans issued at floating rates has risen from 20% in 2022 to 53% today, in part reflecting the pressures of businesses driven by the need for capital to support import substitution after the imposition of sanctions and to acquire assets as foreign companies left Russia.

Demand for loans has increased in anticipation of further restrictions on lending. Loan portfolios of leading companies have expended 22% in the last year. A slowdown in 2025 will increase the pressure.

Aris is pessimistic about the prospects that the Central Bank might ease monetary policy, although that is exactly what one might expect in the event of a slowdown in growth once inflation is showing signs of being contained. Corporate bankruptcies in Russia have jumped by 20% this year although mainly, Aris concedes, in the first quarter. The percentage of businesses for whom late payments is a problem has risen from 22% to 37%.

Aris notes that Russia’s Union of Shopping Centres has petitioned the government for critical relief measures, including subsidised interest rates of 7-10%, debt restructuring, and payment deferrals of five to 10 years, reports - measures that I would think are hardly inconceivable given Russia’s low level of debt. In the corporate bond market, high rates are making bonds unaffordable as a source of capital. “Some” companies spend three out of four rubles they earn to servicing debt. To refinance maturing bonds, companies are now forced to offer yields around 27% to attract investors wary of default risks.

The construction sector, particularly vulnerable to delayed payments, has been hit after a generous mortgage subsidy programme was ended on July 1. Mortgage loan applications halved in July alone as Russia’s real estate market was rocked by the decision. Real estate companies have responded by offering their own financing programmes, similar, claims Aris, to the subprime model used in the US that caused the 2008 global financial crisis. The United Credit Bureau has reported a notable decline in average credit scores across Russia. By October 2024, the likelihood of default among consumers had risen by 12% compared to the previous year.

While it is becoming increasingly clear that Russia faces a tougher economic climate in 2025 than in 2024 I would venture the following offsets to Aris’ gloom namely, that: (1) many of the concerns expressed by Aris are common to any economy entering the post-boom phase of the business cycle; (2) the Central Bank is handling the phase aggressively, in a manner that has worked successfully in the past; (3) overall real wages and household wealth in Russia have been improving, along with more generous social programs; (4) Russia's low rate of debt provides it with sufficient margin for coping effectively with the fallout of a cooling economy; (5) the market for Russian oil and gas in the Global South has grown rapidly; (6) while the war is costly, there are important long-term economic benefits from the absorption of Donbas mineral and mining wealth into the Russian Federation; (7) Russia has freed itself from the Western-dominated global financial system and the future profitability of its businesses will not be siphoned off to Western capitals nor to investment in Western projects.

West Asia

Gaza

The Ministry of Health in Gaza has warned that hospitals across the besieged Gaza Strip will cease operations within 48 hours due to severe fuel shortage. Israeli airstrikes continue to target critical infrastructure, exacerbating an already catastrophic humanitarian crisis.

Yemen

For Countercurrents, Vijay Prashad reports (Preshad) how towards the end of 2023, Yemeni commandos took control of Galaxy Leader, a cargo ship that is registered in the Bahamas and is operated by the Japanese NYK shipping line but that is partially owned by Abraham Ungar (one of Israel’s richest men) It is still held in Yemen’s territorial waters in the port of Saleef, with its 25 crew members as hostages in Al-Hudaydah governorate.

“This assault on Galaxy Leader, and then on several other Israeli-owned vessels, halted the traffic of goods to the Port of Eliat, which sits at the end of the Gulf of Aqaba. Squeezed between Egypt and Jordan, this port, which is the only non-Mediterranean Sea access for Israel, no longer has the level of cargo ships that it had before October 2023 and the private operator of the port has said it is almost bankrupt. Over the course of the past year, the port has been hit by drone and missile strikes emanating from Bahrain, Iraq, and Yemen”.

U. S. Vice Admiral George Wikoff, who leads Operation Prosperity Guardian, has said that the United States cannot “find a centralized center of gravity” for the Yemenis, which means that it cannot apply “a classic deterrence policy.” If the United States cannot strike fear into the leadership of the Yemeni government, then it cannot halt the Yemeni attacks on Israeli shipping or infrastructure. Each of the Yemeni missiles and drones cost about $2,000, while the U.S. missiles used to shoot them down cost $2 million. The U.S. is running low on air-defense missiles and has spent $1 billion on its war on Yemen since October 2023.

For the Orinoco Tribune, Khalil Nasrallah ((Nasrallah) assesses the impact of Yemeni’s attacks on US naval assets in the Red Sea in mid-November, involving the targeting of the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea and two US destroyers in the Red Sea. Yemeni armed forces conducted rocket strikes over an eight-hour period, using ballistic and winged missiles alongside various drones. The strikes were preemptive, thwarting the advancement of a large-scale US air operation in the making, which would have targeted vital areas inside Yemen. Conducting an eight-hour operation against such formidable targets required extensive intelligence, meticulous coordination, and advanced technology The operation demonstrates:

“First, Yemeni intelligence’s capabilities in detecting hostile US and UK military plans. This level of intelligence gathering suggests that Sanaa has infiltrated sources of information that provide real-time updates on enemy movements and intentions. Second, conducting a preemptive strike means that Yemen can anticipate military strategies, maneuver, and repel attacks before they materialize. This ability puts Sanaa in a proactive rather than reactive position, giving it a strategic edge. Third, Yemeni forces are steadily improving their military and intelligence capabilities, challenging US dominance in the region. This consistent enhancement of ballistic missile technology, drone capabilities, and real-time surveillance is what continues to reshape the military balance in the region. Fourth, the operation serves as a stark warning to anyone with aggressive intentions in the region, especially as the US-backed, Saudi/UAE-led war on Yemen remains unresolved. The preemptive strike demonstrates that Sanaa will not hesitate to use force to protect its sovereignty and strategic interests”.

Yemen’s role in supporting the Palestinian and Lebanese causes also means, says Nasrallah, that Israel and its allies cannot brush away the devastating debris of those wars via ‘ceasefires’ because that will not solve their ‘Yemeni problem.’ Despite what happens in the Levant, strategic – and now powerful Axis leader, Yemen – will hold the keys to many regional and resistance decisions.

Venezuela/Brazil

Telesur reports today that Venezuelan authorities have complained of direct participation by the CIA and DEA in last July’s attempt to overthrow the Venezuelan government. The Minister of the Interior denounced the campaign of destabilization centered in the state of Zulia in the northeast with the participation of businessmen, judges, prosecutors and military personnel tied to the extreme right. One of the objectives was to train paramilitary to attack energy infrastructure. The Venezuelan prosecutor’s office has indigted Maria Corina Machado on the grounds that the incited the US to establish new sanctions against the country.

The World Socialist Website yesterday reported that Brazil’s Federal Police (PF) indicted fascistic former president Jair Bolsonaro and 36 other members of his government on Thursday, November 21, for the crimes of violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, coup d’état, and criminal organization for the attempted coup of January 8, 2023.

Climate

This, just in from the New York Times:

“Negotiators at this year’s United Nations climate summit struck an agreement early on Sunday in Baku, Azerbaijan, to triple the flow of money to help developing countries adopt cleaner energy and cope with the effects of climate change. Under the deal, wealthy nations pledged to reach $300 billion per year in support by 2035, up from a current target of $100 billion.

Independent experts, however, have placed the needs of developing countries much higher, at $1.3 trillion per year. That is the amount they say must be invested in the energy transitions of lower-income countries, in addition to what those countries already spend, to keep the planet’s average temperature rise under 1.5 degrees Celsius. Beyond that threshold, scientists say, global warming will become more dangerous and harder to reverse”.