West Asian War (Final Sunday Update)
A quick comment. So far as I can understand the US used MOABs (one or more? - one source that I find less credible says as many as 14, or two-thirds of US entire supply) on Fordow, but only Tomahawk cruise missiles on Natanz and Isfahan. There are many conflicting accounts, however, with some saying that a MOAB was also used at Natanz. The US B2As were said to have flown at too high an altitude for Iranian air defenses.
Why have not more impenetrable air defenses been installed? Again, the situation points towards a very leaky air defense system in Iran, perhaps rather more leaky that Israel’s paper dome. This could certainly have been avoided had Iran agreed to collaborate with Russia in development of an joint integrated air defense system. But then Russia is all about trying to suppress any Iranian ambitions to develop a nuclear weapon, as this is in its own security interest, and Iran, on the other hand, wants full discretion.
The IAEA says there is no radiation leakage detectable suggesting, as Iran says, the strikes have only damaged but not destroyed these facilities. They may have been intended only to take out entrance and exit points. Another possibility, if not likelihood, is that enriched uranium was moved from all of these sites in the days prior to the attack and is being stored elsewhere, perhaps not even in Iran.
Iran says it is at war with the US. The US seems to think that the attacks are something different than the US joining in the war with Israel against Iran, and as for that possibility, well, that is what Trump is talking about when he says he will make a decision in two weeks time. How convenient. In two weeks’ time, Israel will be running out of air defense interceptors. It will be close to July 4th.
Anyway, for the time being, the US is making the judgement that it is not at war and it hopes that its attacks have put an end to the matter. Iran apparently thinks differently. An end to the matter? Fat chance. Will Congress get a say or will the future of the world be just down to one grumpy, demented old man who thinks he is the Messiah, and has surrounded himself with know-nothing Christian Zionists. Democracy? Fat chance?.
As the evening closes on Sunday June 22nd there are reports that the Iranian Majlis has approved the closure of the Hormuz strait. I dont know if this is just a greenlighting of the possibility or something tantamount to an executive decision. Earlier reports today suggested that Iran was already beginning to mine the Strait.
Closure of the Strait, perhaps accompanied by a renewed Houthi operation on the Red Sea will significantly slow down global trade and put major pressure on oil prices.
The US attack did not include the largely Russian constructed nuclear power station at Bushehr nor two other plants whose development Russia is financing.
The US probably wanted to prioritize centrifuges and uranium enrichment facilities and would also have wanted to avoid direct engagement with Russian assets.
There is likely an element of theatre here in which Russia and maybe Iran had been given advance notice (my speculation entirely). If not then Trump has shown the world that preemption is the key to success and everyone should try it.
But on the other hand, Russia is making increasingly strident comments on the US strikes, in Iran’s favor. Tomorrow, Monday June 23rd., Iranian foreign minister Araghchi flies to Moscow. This will be an extremely important meeting and will doubtless entail further conversations between Putin and Xi Jinping.
The US has evacuated many bases in the region; there have been no reported Iranian retaliations to my knowledge on US assets. I believe but do not know that strikes on Israel are continuing.
Actually I heard this confirmed earlier today by Prof Marandi in Tehran who says also that the damage is not severe but there will be Iranian retaliation, but that this will be proportionate. Noting that Iran can strike at the US more easily than at Israel he sees possible targets against shipping in the Gulf and even on Diego Garcia, the British base the US uses for its B2A bombers.
It seems unlikely that Russia will be comfortable supporting Iran if Iran at this juncture chooses to attack US bases (which would likely compel further US escalation). But Russia will almost certainly want to provide economic if not military support; and support will be forthcoming from Pakistan, China and North Korea.
Once again, as Marandi points out, the US has torn up the UN charter. He does not think it likely the European dominated IAEA can expect continuing Iranian cooperation. I would say it is a lot more likely that Iran will now go for a nuke weapon.
The West has isolated itself as a rogue bloc.