West Asian Fog (Update One)
Tensions are escalating in West Asia but from several contradictory points of conflagration leaving the question as to when these contradictions balance one another out and at what point a superpower interest will force a transformative change.
In Syria we see a very peculiar push by Israel into Southern Syria that Israel retrospectively justifies in terms of protecting Druze communities around Sweida from the State’s HTS extreme-Sunni forces. The latest clashes between HTS and Israel seem to have been ignited by a relatively small incident that normally might easily be resolved, were it not for the fact that Israel needs the clashes to justify moving further into Syria. Many if not most local Druze don’t want Israeli protection and the dependency that it brings with it. Complicating the situation is the large community of Druze from the Israeli side of the border who have been fired up by media reports and are trying to storm across the border with the purpose of defending their Syrian brethren. Following orders from Netanyahu the IDF says it is trying to stop them. Because this instability has been used to call a pause in the corruption trial of Netanyahu it is now possibly in Netanyahu’s interest that the clashes are allowed to grow worse. A ceasefire took effect yesterday and early reports say that Syrian forces have begun to withdraw. But this was not before Israeli fighter jets several times attacked the Ministry of Defense compound in Damascus killing at least one and injuring 18 and also hit targets in Daraa.
“Mediated” by the US, which of course is the region’s principal trouble maker, the Turkish-supported al- Qaeda style illegal government of Jolani/Sharah in Damascus, now freed by an adoring Trump of the severe sanctions that Trump and Biden had used to cripple the former Assad regime irredeemably, reached an uneasy peace with Israel which is now barely meaningful.
What are the implications? The events may put to one side for the moment recent talk of a deal between Israel and Syria to divide up Lebanon between them. The US pressure on the Lebanese government to crush Hezbollah there would have made plan easier to implement but any such joint action right now would be passing strange.
The Zionist agenda of Netanyahu’s regime now playing out in the Israeli invasions of Gaza, the West Bank, Southern Syria and Southern Lebanon sees multiple opportunities for further advances towards an end point that might swallow up all of Lebanon, all of Syria, all of Iraq, all of Jordan and parts of Egypt and Saudi Arabia. But first Israel has Turkey to deal with. That conflict could spell the end of Israel. Turkey controls the flow of pipeline gas to Israel. But Israel can ally with the Kurds so as to sabotage to the recent Turkish-Ocalan truce and establish Kurdistan as a buffer that can be manipulated by Israel against Turkey. Were that to happen it might puncture the burgeoning alliance between Turkey and Israel over Azerbaijan, which could provide a relief to both Iran and Russia. A good part of the reason Israel is in Syria has to do with its successful covert war against Hezbollah and other pro-Iranian militia in Syria which contributed to the fall of Assad. Assad and his Allawite-dominated military was good news for the Druze in as much as the regime’s legitimacy more than anything depended on Allawite muscle to protect minorities against the periodical uprisings inspired by the Muslim Brotherhood or other sources, usually foreign financed, of extremist Sunni opposition to the Assads.
The messier Syria becomes the more open is the entire area to Israeli manipulation, adding strength to the push for a further Israeli attack on Iran. But here Israel’s dependence on air power and US financing of that power is also a liability as in terms of ground forces Israeli is utterly over-extended and dependent on unstable proxy forces.
Update:
Since writing the above earlier today, I have noticed a very useful post by Larry Johnson on his blog Sonar 21, which provides what I think is likely to prove an important corrective to the Azeri narrative I was relaying yesterday and, by implication today. The upshot may be that Armenia may have fabricated a story about Azeri airspace being used by Israel for some of its attacks on Iran during the 12-day war, and that in fact Israel may have launched drone attacks from the Iranian province (east and west) of Azerbaijan that may have flown over this space Ardabil province on the Caspian, dropping disposable fuel tanks, on route to Tehran. This would indicate that Iranian-Azeri relations may actually be quite good. Azeri relations with Russia on the other hand are possibly a lot rougher on account of strong Azeri ties to Ukraine
Here it is:
“Staying in the region, but shifting to a neighboring country, I have received a terrific email from a reader who provides excellent insights into the the dynamics at play among Azerbaijan, Iran, Ukraine and Russia. Both Western media and social media outlets have reported in the aftermath of the 12 Day War (we got to call it something pithy) that Iran used Azerbaijan as a launching pad for some of its attacks on Iran. I think my new friend provides a credible explanation for why that it not true:
How do I know this? Firstly, on the 27th of June, 2025 - only days after the 12 day war between Israel and Iran was halted - Iran's new Ambassador to Azerbaijan was officially received by the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, and warmly greeted. (Go to azertag.az/en - the Azerbaijan State News Agency in English, click on Official News, and move to the fourth page of listed news items. Here you will find photos documenting this important event.)
On the 4th of July, 2025, the President of Iran - Pezeshkian - at the head of a large Iranian governmental delegation traveled to Khankendi in the newly incorporated Azeri territory in Nagorno Karabakh for a state meeting with the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan and many Azeri Ministers. For photos you can go to azertag.az/en and click on Official News and move to the 2nd page.
So, as a former analyst, what do you think the chances are that Iran would send a new Ambassador, and the President of Iran would travel to a country that only days earlier had allowed its territory to be used by Israel to launch deadly surprise attacks on Tehran. Less than zero?
FYI relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Iran are cordial, business relations are developing, and the north south rail corridor project between Russia and Iran through Azerbaijan is proceeding apace.
With this in mind, where is this easily debunk-able narrative about the Republic of Azerbaijan allowing Israel to use its territory for sneak attacks on Iran coming from? To explain I need to take you on a short history lesson. In 2020 I was present in Azerbaijan during the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The hysterical narratives coming out of Armenia at that time would have made Bagdad Bob blush. When Armenia disastrously lost this war, and the Armenian President Pashinian acknowledged in writing that he recognized the Nagorno Karabakh territories as Azeri, Western pundits siding with Armenia had a lot of egg on their faces.
Since the Iraq war in 2003, the ethnic Kurds have carved out a semi-autonomous state in the north of Iraq and parts of north east Syria. These Kurdish enclaves directly border the West and East Azerbaijan Provinces of Iran, (located in north west Iran, just south of the Republic of Azerbaijan - check a provincial map of Iran for details). The Israelis have established deep ties in these Kurdish enclaves, and it is entirely conceivable that their sneak attacks on northern Iran were launched from precisely these Kurdish held enclaves THROUGH the territories of West and East Azerbaijan provinces, further through Ardabil province to the Caspian Sea, over the Caspian Sea for a 100 kilometers or so, and directly south onto Teheran and other nearby targets. This is why some disposable extra fuel tanks for drones were discovered off the northern coast of Iran.
Armenian narrators, ever looking for a chance to increase tension between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan, have apparently launched a carefully crafted deception, confusing the two Azerbaijan provinces of Iran with the actual Republic of Azerbaijan. Unfortunately, many otherwise reliable bloggers have jumped on the band wagon without doing their due diligence. I would recommend to you that you never take any possible anti-Azeri narrative at face value without double checking.
As concerns Russian - Azeri tensions, here we have to go back to the Second World War. After the war, large regions of today's Ukraine were essentially depopulated. Thousands of ethnic Azeris, who had fought the Wehrmacht in Ukraine and in Berlin, married ethnic Ukrainian ladies and settled in the country. During my 25 years in and around the Republic of Azerbaijan, I was almost astonished at how many familial ties there actually were between ethic Ukrainians and Azeris. Azeris are also excellent business people and established solid investments in the oil and gas industries in Ukraine, the oil refinery in Kremenchug that Russia destroyed recently was owned by Azeri interests linked to President Aliyev.
Apparently there had been some sort of "understanding" that Russia would not seriously disable this refinery during the special military operation. In exchange, the Russians may have negotiated the right to use existing Soviet era pipelines to pipe their oil and gas south to the Republic of Azerbaijan, reflag it as Azeri, and then pump it through the newly constructed BTC and other existing pipelines from Azerbaijan to Turkey, and onward to western markets. No need for "ghost oil tankers" on the high seas, which may simply be a diversion. It looks as though the Spider's Web operation tarnished these "understandings". Ukrainian intelligence may have engaged certain ethnic Azeri criminal networks operating in Russia to assist with this operation. This operation, however, was not officially approved in any manner by the actual government of the Republic of Azerbaijan. The Russian response was not long in waiting and, as usual, heavy-handed, as it probably should be.
This Russian response and subsequent clamp down on ethnic Azeri "businessmen" has opened old wounds between the Russian government and ethnic Azeris living in Russia and Azerbaijan, with predictable results. However, don't expect any major fireworks, or attacks on Azeri oilfields, although our friends in MI6 may stage a false flag or two to heat matters up. We should never forget the prominent position that BP Azerbaijan holds within the Republic of Azerbaijan - although it operates VERY carefully.
Finally, the Zangezur corridor in southern Armenia located between the two Azeri territories of the Republic of Azerbaijan proper and Nakhichevan. At the end of the 2020 war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, there were discussions about opening this corridor, and this initiative has continued to this day. Now it looks as if the US State Department has proposed leasing this Armenian territory to a US entity for 100 years to supervise the orderly transit of goods and services between Turkey - through Nakhichevan - to the Republic of Azerbaijan. A modern road, railroad, oil and gas pipelines and a fiber optic magistral are proposed. The Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan have just recently met in the UAE and may have come to an understanding on this matter, (again, go to azertag.az/en for confirmation and photos). Iran and Russia may not actually halt this initiative if they are guaranteed open access to this corridor and it may serve their economic interests as well. It looks as if the US State Department has finally come up with a good idea that may come to fruition, although the actual operator of the Zangezur corridor may not eventually be a direct US interest.
The recent visit of the current President of Syria to the Republic of Azerbaijan may be directly connected to the Zangezur corridor developments. The President of Turkmenistan has also just recently visited the Republic of Azerbaijan, possibly discussing a trans-Caspian gas pipeline to hookup to the planned pipeline links to Turkey that are to be built in the Zangezur corridor. In short, there is a LOT of activity behind the scenes.”