War and Peace Offensives

New readers should know that my Substack posts are dedicated to surveillance of matters related to a central premise, and that premise, put at its simplest, is that the collective West, made ever more desperate and ruthless because of its unsustainable debt load, is attempting to beat back the multiple forces of multipolarity. It is currently doing this on three main fronts: against Russia over the proxy excuse of defending Ukraine; against Iran over the proxy excuse of defending Israel; against China over the proxy excuse of defending Taiwan. But there is no limit to the number of fronts that the West will entertain.

Neo Neo-Imperial

News of Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement is further evidence, to my mind of significant fissures in the Collective West’s prostration before
Washington and its fanatical anti-BRICS posturing following, as it does, the resignation a few weeks ago of arch Ukrainian nationalist Chrysta Freeland, Trudeau’s former finance minister.

More and more, the Trump team looks to extend the imperial legacy of the “white man’s burden” towards more white men and women (in Canada) and Greenland, and more brown men and women in Panama (and doubtless, eventually - were it have its way - to places like Mexico, Honduras, Cuba, Venezuela and Guinea, to name but a few).

The prospects of a Collective West consolidation around this revived Washington imperial ambition are dim, even as Trump moves to kick out millions of the displaced victims its previous imperial adventures from the US.

The likelihood of further fracture is immense.

My thanks to Patrick Lawrence who in his piece today for Consortium News cites Charles Augustin Sainte–Beuve (1847)

“There are now but two great nations — the first is Russia, still barbarian but large, and worthy of respect…. The other nation is America, an intoxicated, immature democracy that knows no obstacles. The future of the world lies between these two great nations. One day they will collide, and then we will see struggles the like of which no one has dreamed of.”

Ukraine’s New Offensives

Dima of the Military Summary Channel has promised us two significant Ukrainian offensives, the first already taking place in the form of three waves of Ukrainian attacks in the Sudzha section of Ukraine’s previous Kursk invasion. (Mercouris today expresses skepticism that this is of a magnitude that would warrant the description as an offensive, although it may indicate a Russian expectation that it will be followed up by other strikes into Russian territory). The other is forecast for the spring, when Ukraine has mobilized its new army ofx 18-24 year olds.

In the Sudzha area, Ukrainian troops over the weekend moved north of Martynovka and northeast of Cherkasskoe Porechnoe, achieving an advance seven kilometers deep into the settlements of Berdin, and Novosotnikskii in the direction of Bol’shoyi Soldstskoye. They are said to have used fiber-optic drones that are resistant to Russian jamming.

Details of Ukraine’s offensive were reportedly available on the site of a Spanish blogger some 48 hours in advance of its occurrence, and it is also reported that Russia had advance knowledge of the Ukrainian attacks.

Russian forces meanwhile have been moving south of Sudzha, establishing new positions inside Maknovka (at least half of which is currently controlled by Russia) and Dmitriukov. Northwest of Sudzha, Russian forces have recovered Leonidovo, and moved east to the outskirts of Malaya Lokhnya. Several Russian tanks were destroyed in this area by mines and FPV drones.

The Ukrainian offensive in Kursk is taking place just as Russia completes a significant victory in taking all of Kurakhovo, the conclusion to a campaign that reportedly cost Ukraine some 12,000 lives, 3 000 weapons and military hardware, including 40 tanks and other armed fighting vehicles. Russian forces are moving significantly westwards from the western end of the the Kurakhove reservoir towards Dachne and Andriivka, beyond which there are no Ukrainian fortifications to speak of before Russian forces reach the Dnieper.

West of Kurakhove, Russia is now in an excellent position to close the gap between Shevchenko in the north to Zelenivka further south, and to form a cauldron that will entrap Ukrainian forces in this area. As a result of its success in Kurakhove, Russia is reported by Dima of the Military Summary Channel to have suppressed a significant source of Ukrainian artillery fire against Donetsk City, which has suffered Ukrainian terrorism since around 2015.

Can a MAGA President Go Great?

The main purpose, I surmise, of Ukraine’s offensives (actual, predicted or imagined) is to persuade the incoming Trump team in the US that the war is still continuing and that Ukraine can be portrayed as winning it and that therefore Trump needs to hold off from forcing a negotiation (if he even could) and continue supplying arms and cash to Ukraine.

This does again raise the question of what it is that Trump could then do that would still push towards peace, yet conveying an impression of US strength, and that would be palatable to Trump’s domestic allies?

I have for some time explored the view that the only decent prospect for peace negotiations is if, instead of maintaining the pretense that this is just a local confict between Russia and Ukraine, all parties acknowledge the vastly more imposing and realistic view that the conflict is in fact civilizational, one that pits the Global Majority represented by China and other members of the BRICS seeking a multipolar, law-based world order, against the unipolar, rules-based hegemonic order of Washington and its subalterns. This path would have to embrace the demolition of NATO and commit to a radical, new conversation about the European and global security architecture.

I do not think it is inconceivable that Trump would recognize some of the advantage of “going bold” and of seizing firmly in his grasp the nettle of what this conflict is really about, and doing so in a proactive manner that would come across to his base as decisive, courageous and big. He would be thinking clearly were he to recognize that the current global order is unsustainable and that if the US resists the birth of a new order it will do so to its great and ultimate disadvantage.

But, there are two big problems. One is the hundreds of years of Western anti-Russian and anti-Chinese propaganda in support of a Western ideology of Western imperial and neo-imperial entitlement. The vast majority of Western citizens fail to benefit from this, yet most are thoroughly, perhaps irrevocably brainwashed by it. And they are brainwashed, secondly, by what some analysts have rightly described as the US “superweapon,” namely a compliant, corporate mainstream media system that does not see it in its business interest to interrupt or in any serious way challenge the long reign of Washington’s neocon supremicists.

The Coming War with Iran

In discussion with Judge Napolitano this morning of January 6th, expert analyst Alastair Crooke offered a gloomy prognosis on the Israel-Iran crisis, pointing out that the conditions are ripe for an Israeli offensive given Israel’s successful destruction (continuing both north and south of Syria) of Syria’s air defenses, and amidst a fragile Iranian economy that is registering an inflation rate of over 30%. (Incidentally, I would also note that Turkiye’s rate of inflation is over 40%, and Russia’s is only 10%).

Crooke’s argument is that the invasion of Syria by HTS with mainly Turkish backing has devastated a web of checks and balances in the region that were orchestrated by former US President Obama, and introduced a period of relative chaos that Netanyahu’s Israel is best positioned to take advantage of.

While conceding that the situation is very dangerous, noting the long-standing US neocon lust for just such a war, and the very recent Sullivan-Biden conversation as to how the US itself might bomb Iran, I would take some measure of comfort from the upcoming signing on January 17 of the Russian-Iranian strategic partnership agreement, and recent signs that Turkiye-HTS very much want Russia to maintain its presence in Latakia and to develop a good relationship with Iran.

The role of Iraq, which separates Syria from Iran is very mixed, harboring as it does (1) a large Kurdish community which is the target of constant Turkish harrasment, (2) the continuing presence of at least 2,000 US troops who claim to be there to root out ISIS elements (although the US was if anything likely protecting former ISIS fighters at Al Tanf in Syria and putting them into action in support the HTS invasion), US troops which (3) the Iraqi government is constantly saying it wants to kick out, even though sections of the political class owe their survival to the US occupation and (4) a medley of Shi’a and other militia. In general, I would tentatively conlude that Iraq as a sovereign nation will exercise little muscle in the unfolding tragedy of Syria and the Iran crisis.

What I have suggested in previous posts, and am inclined to retain this on the table, is my proposition that we seeing the emergence in Syria of a strange HTS-Turkish-Russian (and, perhaps, because of Russian concentration in Latakia, even the HTS-persecuted Alawaites) block, setting off against an Israeli-Kurdish-US block. If so, neither of these blocks would be particularly stable or advantageous for ordinary Syrians no matter how much Western mainstream media insist on feeding us images of “liberated” Syrians enjoying new-found freedoms and even a feminist paradise in Damascus. I strongly sense that this is all rubbish.

The Weakness of Lebanon

For the World Socialist Web Site, Jean Shaoul notes that Lebanon’s parliament is due to meet on January 9 in another bid to elect a president, under intense pressure from the US, France and Saudi Arabia to select someone of whom they approve. They want a pro-US/Israel government and an end to Iranian influence in the country via Hezbollah and its political allies. Lebanon has been without a president for more than two years after Michel Aoun’s term ended in October 2022.

“This left the country without a functioning government. Headed by Najib Mikati, Lebanon’s richest man, the government has been unable to impose the “economic reforms” demanded by the International Monetary Fund and international banks in return for a restructuring of the country’s debts—amid bankruptcy, soaring inflation and mass poverty caused by the looting of the country’s wealth by the handful of billionaires that have run Lebanon since the end of the civil war in 1990.

Aoun, a candidate for the presidency, now heads Lebanon’s armed forces in southern Lebanon where he is charged with disarming Hezbollah. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have made it clear they will not help Lebanon rebuild if Hezbollah remains the dominant force in the country

“The US is building a new $1.2 billion fortified embassy on a 43-acre site near Beirut whose declared purpose is to counter the “Axis of Resistance”, meaning Iran. Its scale, out of all proportion to the country’s size, is indicative of US geo-political interests in Lebanon, with its strategic location and newly found sources of gas and oil under the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Following the settlement of a longstanding maritime border dispute between Israel and Lebanon, a French, Italian and Qatari consortium began drilling in 2023, while Israel has already begun extraction”.

The US has exercised at least as much influence, financially, in Lebanon, as has Iran, paying $3 billion to Lebanese security forces since 2006 as part of its $10 billion aid programme to the country. The US has troops stationed at two Lebanese military air strips not far from Beirut where large C130 style military planes have been seen landing.

US/Israeli operations in the Middle East, Shaoul argues, constitute nothing less than a war to eliminate Iran’s allies, encircle it and provoke retaliatory action against US forces that could be used as the pretext for an all-out war against Tehran. US support for Israel’s genocide of Palestinians in the name of support for Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza has a parallel in its support for the genocide of Lebanese in the name of support for Israel’s war on Hezbollah.

“The IDF’s October ground invasion of southern Lebanon caused widespread destruction, about which little has been said. It forced more than 1.2 million, including 400,000 children, of Lebanon’s 6 million population to flee their homes. It killed around 4,000 people, mostly civilians, and injured more than 16,000, according to the Ministry of Health. Nearly 250,000 homes were completely or partially destroyed, 20,000 public buildings damaged and hundreds of small and medium-sized businesses closed down. According to the UN’s Economic and Social Commission for West Asia (UNESCWA), this devastation includes the destruction of 13 hospitals and 130 ambulances, and the closure of 100 primary healthcare centres, which has left vast sections of the population without access to essential care. Furthermore, the overcrowded shelters (908 of the 1,095 are at full capacity) exacerbate the risk of infectious diseases and compound care needs”.

Israel has continued its air strikes on Lebanon in defiance of the 60-day ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal imposed by Washington in late November. Beirut claims that there have been 300 violations of the truce. The truce was based on an agreement which called for Hezbollah to give up its fortified positions in southern Lebanon and withdraw its forces to the north of the Litani River, and included a US letter granting Israel the right “to take military action” if “Hezbollah looks to be preparing an attack”.

BBC-CIA-Mossad Zionist Propaganda

For Mint Press News, veteran investigative reporter Alan Macleod pursues the story of a senior BBC editor many of whose colleagues complained was acting as principal gatekeeper weeding out anything that might be too embarrassing for the Zionist-Genocidal State of Israel. Macleod reports that Raffi Berg, an Englishman who heads the BBC’s Middle East desk, formerly worked for the U.S. State Department’s Foreign Broadcast Information Service, a unit that, by his own admission, was a CIA front group. His critics have blamed him for a culture of “extreme fear” at the BBC about publishing anything critical of Israel. (The BBC has disputed these claims).

Berg was an employee of the U.S. State Department’s Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS) three years before joining the BBC. The FBIS is understood the world over to be a CIA front group known for gathering intelligence for the agency. In 2005, the FBIS was subsumed into the CIA’s new Open Source Enterprise

Berg also has a rich professional relationship with Mossad, Israel’s premier intelligence agency. His 2020 book, “Red Sea Spies: The True Story of Mossad’s Fake Diving Resort,” was written “in collaboration” with Mossad commander Dani Limor, whom he relied on extensively. In August 2020, Berg shared a picture of Netanyahu at his desk in front of a copy of his book.

“The BBC sells itself as an impartial distributor of news on the Middle East and beyond. And yet, Berg, who, by most accounts, calls the shots when it comes to the network’s Israel-Palestine coverage, clearly believes that this is acceptable and unremarkable behavior…(Yet)…The BBC suspended six of its reporters for simply liking pro-Palestine tweets. And yet, in Berg’s case, his overt pro-Israel advocacy has been treated as entirely unproblematic”.

Macleod correctly places this episode within the context of a long-standing history of intimacy between the CIA and Western mainstream media (see CIA Media).

Brazil BRICS

As Poland takes over from Hungary in the leadership of the European Commission in a move that will fortify neo-con aggression against Russia in Ukraine, Brazil takes over from Russia in leadership of the BRICS, in a move that some commentators have worried - in view of Brazil’s 2025 responsibility for the next COP30 summit - may slow the further development of that principal icon of multipolarity.

Nine new members are set to join: Cuba, Bolivia, Indonesia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda and Uzbekistan. This follows BRICS 2024 growth to include Iran, UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia. The original members were Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Intellinews today reports that the Brazilian Foreign Ministry has yet to specify whether the newest additions will join as full members or partners, the latter having limited voting rights. BRICS now represents over 40% of global population and 37% of world GDP by purchasing power, exceeding the G7's economic influence. Over 100 official BRICS meetings are planned between February and July. Most will take place in Brasilia.