Waiting on Iranian Retaliation, Israeli Invasion

Yesterday

For reasons I cannot determine it seems that my post yesterday, Waiting for Apocalypse was never sent out to the broader circle of free subscribers at the time that I believe I had scheduled. I believe the piece contains a great deal of interesting and updating information, so readers who did not see it and would like a bit more background as to recent events, are encouraged to scroll down from this or in some other way to seek this story out from my site Empire, Communication and NATO Wars.

Middle East

As I write, there has been no Iranian retaliation for Israel’s assassination of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders in Beirut and Tehran in recent days, but there are clearly preparations for such a retaliation, in Iran, in other parts of the Middle East, and by the US (which is sending a flotilla of 12 warships to the Meditteranean).

The general expectation is that the retaliation will be on a significantly bigger scale than when Iran responded, in a very measured way, to an earlier Isrseli provocation thst killed Hezbollah leaders in a strike on the Syrian capital of Damascus.

Today, the British Embassy in Beirut has advised British citizens to leave Lebanon immediately; the US Embassy has advised US citizens they cannot rely on the Embassy for help.

This suggests, in my view, an expectation that even before an Iranian retaliation (likely to take the form of missile and drone attacks on Israel from Syria, Yemen and Lebanon), or timed to coincide with it, there will be an invasion of Lebanon by Israel.

Whatever the outcome the consequences will be catastrophic for millions.

As I have argued on several occassions in recent posts, I agree with those commentators who express concern that we are once again on the precipice of a Third World War which could quickly be converted into a nuclear war. I don’t intend to go over this ground again in this post. I note with some curiosity a recent divergence of opinion as to whether the Israeli strike on Tehran was the result of a missile strike or, as the New York Times and Daily Telegraph have claimed in recent days, the result of a bomb planted a couple of months ago by Mossad agents in possible liasion with Iranian assets.

For what it is worth, I consider the “bomb” theory smells highly likely to be a Mossad or Western intelligence plant, working as always through highly pliable mainstream media. The purpose is to incite distrust and suspicion inside Terhan and to discredit Iran in the eyes of the international community. But whether it was a short-range missile (suggesting that it may have been fired from within Iran) or a bomb, the assassination does suggest a worrying degree of laxity or incompetence in Iranian security that cannot be easily dismissed.

Just as Israeli defense against retaliation is likely to involve the usual suspects lead by the usual gang of imperialists and former imperialists (US, Britain, France) and Washington-compliant Middle Eastern countries (Jordan, foremost), Iran will be backed up by Hezbollah from Lebanon and from Syria (where, until recently Russia has been scaling back its forces) and possibly, if there is irrepressible force towards World War, from Russia and even China. On Jordan, incidentally, NATO has recently announced the opening of its first liaison office in the Arab region, located in Amman. The office aims to deepen the partnership between NATO and Jordan through political dialogue and practical cooperation.

The choice is attributed to Jordan’s status as a long-term and highly valuable partner for NATO. It is another demonstration of how it is possible for the Empire to corrupt local elites so thoroughly and to bolster their machineries of anti-democratic suppression so ruthlessly that the presence of three million (!) Palestinians (as in the case of Jordan) or many tens of millions of Arab loyalists (as in Egypt) is of no consequence.

That, at any rate, applies so far. One day, perhaps quite soon, the Western-constructed dam against Arab nationalism will burst.

The Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, announced on 1 August that the Lebanese resistance is no longer just “a support front” in the fight against Israel and asserts that there will be response to the assassination earlier this week of top war commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut.

“We are now in an open battle against the Israeli enemy, on all frontiers – we have entered a new stage.”

Russia

In its post yesterday, The Bell, a pro-Western source that I do not frequently cite, provided a summary of some interesting statistics on the Russian economy, published from Rosstat. These lend further credence to the idea I have frequently aired in recent posts as to the overall robustness of the Russian economy, even while noting with some concern the threats that Ukrainian strikes constantly pose to Russian energy, oil, power and even nuclear-related installations, particularly in the border regions.

In particular, the figures show a rapid increase in production of civilian and military goods, accompanied in some cases by large price hikes (contributing, of course, to a still high inflation rate of around 9%, which the Central Bank is attempting to redress by its recent increase in interest rates to 18%, an endeavor which seems to be supported by a decline in retail trade), and very steep increases in real wages.

I quote directly (see The Bell):

“The production of some key military-linked goods rose more than 30% in the first half of this year, according to a recent report by the State Statistics Service (Rosstat). The production of finished metal items (excluding cars and equipment) was up 36% in the first six months of 2024, with year-on-year growth hitting 30.9% in June alone. The production of other military items also rose sharply in the first six months of the year: motor vehicle manufacture was up 27.4%, and optics and computers climbed 35%. Clothing categories that include military uniforms also had double-digit growth: 43.6% for “men’s suits,” and 16.7% for workwear. Industrial sectors without a military connection do not show anywhere this level of growth. Military goods are also getting more expensive – because the growth in total production costs is greater than the growth of volume. In several sectors (fabricated metal products, optics and computers, vehicles) prices are up as much as 40%.

“Unemployment among Russians aged fifteen and over fell to 2.4% in June, according to Rosstat, a new post-Soviet low.

“The year-on-year increase in disposable income in the second quarter (April-June) hit an all-time record of 9.6%, according to Rosstat. Disposable income was up 8.1% in the first six months of this year compared with the equivalent period in 2023. This is due to a labor shortage driving wages higher and higher.

“Retail trade in Russia is slowing, according to Rosstat. In June, year-on-year growth was 6.3%. That’s the lowest rate since spring 2023. This could bring down inflation.

“Inflation was down 0.08% between July 23 and July 29. Annual inflation was running at 9.11%, down from 9.18% the previous week.

“Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday doubled upfront payments for volunteers to fight in Ukraine in a bid to boost military recruitment. The sign-on fee is now 400,000 rubles ($4,700).”

The Battlefields

Dima for the Military Summary channel reports that there have been up to 100 incidents in the Kiev area of military vehicles having been set on fire. These vehicles most likely belong to military recruiters (press gangers, in effect). The burnings, along with strikes and other recent civil unrest, and the fleeing from Ukraine (according to former Zelenskiy spokesman Arestovich) of up to 3,000 or even 6,000 young men a day, or attempting to do so, in an effort to escape mobilization, testify to a state of near despair in many parts of Ukraine.

On the battlefields everything continues much as it has been since the fall to Russia of Avdiivka last February namely, slow but sure Russian advances westwards. Ukrainian resistance is slackening significantly except in north Kharkiv direction where Ukrainian forces appear to outnumber Russian. The overall logic of the battlefield is difficult to exlain other than in terms of a war of attrition by Russia against Ukraine, one which is also conservative with respect to Russian lives and equipment, challenged as they always must be by the novel reality of drone warfare.

In southern Donetsk area, the battle for Kostianynivka proceeds, with a Russian view to penetrating Vodiane, and finally taking down or neutralizing Vuhledar and the mines of that region. Ukraine’s 79th Brigade is expected to lose this battle; they have been incentivized for the time being by promises that following the battle they will be given a period of rest and recuperation. Russia is hitting the settlement of Katerynivksa to the north west, threatening to penetrate the latest line of Ukraine’s defense. Russia is hunting Ukrainian forces on the move west of Yasnobrodivka, between Karlivka and Krasnohoriivka where the Ukrainian presence remains strong.

In the direction of Pokrovsk, Russian forces have taken much of the settlements of Vesele and Zhelanne, are moving on Novozhelanne and Mykolaiivka to the south, and on Serhiivka - a settlement that lies north of Zhelanne - and are attacking Ukrainian vehicles on the run to Mezhove and Skuchne. Moving up towards Avdiivka, Russia now controls settlements as far west as Pohres, (completely) and are attacking the center of Ivanivka to the north. In the Toretsk direction, Russia has taken much of Zalizne, is moving on Nelivka; it has taken the mining lyceum in Pivnichne and entered the first outskirts of Toretsk itself.

Moving towards Bakhmut, Russia is clearing remaining Ukrainian forces from Klishchiivka, and attacking central Chasiv Yar. Northwards, it has tsken Rozdolivka and, very likely, Pereizne, as it progresses up the railways towards Kuzmynivka and Vyimka. West of Verkhnokemianske Russia is taking fields and supply roads in the direction of that settement from Ivano-Danivka and Spirne. Further north, in Kupyansk, Russisa is inside Makiivka but has yet to displace Ukrainian forces. It is bombing Petropavlivka, possibly in advance of a ground operation. In northern Kharkiv, from Staryitsa eastwards to Vovchansk, Russian tactics are reportedly switching from offensive to defensive mode.

Europe

Overall, Europe is exhibiting a curious mixture of (1) panic in the face of the possibillity of a Trump administration from January 2025 that will withdraw aid from Ukraine, push Europe to greater financial support of NATO, and apply tariffs on European imports to the US; (2) tolerance for, if not encouragement of the rise or resuscitation of fascism and (3) militarization.

Nowhere are these tendencies more in evidence than in Germany. For the World Socialist Web Site Johannes Stern (Stern) this week published an overview of relevant developments in the German army which now asserts that it bases itself on the tradition of the Wehrmacht, the army of the Nazi regime that massacred and starved tens of millions of civilians during World War II. It explicitly names top officers of the Nazi Wehrmacht as “tradition-forming” and “identity-creating” for the Bundeswehr, today’s German army.

Paradoxically, the German government supports Israeli genocide of Palestinians today, even as it seeks to rehabilitate agencies responsible for the genocide of German Jews in the 1930s and 1940s. Stern writes that this is a prelude to recreating a military machine comparable to the Hitler era, using as pretext NATO’s provocation of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“Despite the unspeakable crimes top Nazi officers committed during the Second World War, it (i.e. a document published by the Bundeswehr on July 11) hails them as “role models” and “heroes,” as the German ruling class once again prepares to wage war against Russia. Its purpose in so doing, the text states, is to “name examples that create tradition, strengthen identification and, as a result, increase the operational value of units and formations of the respective organisational area.

“…German imperialism, which had already attStevensempted to annex Ukraine and defeat Russia militarily during the First and Second World Wars, is playing a leading role in the war offensive against Russia.”

Further, and ominously, the document also advocated the valoration of “military skill over character and ability to function in society”.

Great Britain has in recent days experienced an outbreak of fascist violence supported and perhaps even instigated, notes David Miller in a recent X posting that names names, by Israeli Zionist assets. Robert Stevens, also writing in the World Socialist Web Site, provides some of the background:

“Several more days of riots by far-right forces have taken place in British towns and cities utilising the excuse of the stabbing deaths of three children in Southport on Monday. Asian workers have been beaten up, mosques attacked, and asylum seeker hostels laid siege to by mobs chanting anti-migrant and anti-Muslim slogans.

On Tuesday, several hundred fascists travelled to Southport and laid siege to the town, attacking a local mosque. The fascists, seeking to whip up anti-immigrant sentiment, claimed Monday’s murder of the three children and hospitalisation of others was carried out by a Muslim immigrant. The 17-year-old accused was later named as Axel Rudakubana, a Christian who was born in Cardiff, Wales, of parents who emigrated from Rwanda to Britain.”

Far-right protests have also taken place in London, Hartlepool, Manchester, and Aldershot. They build on decades of elite encouragement of Islamaphobia and anti-immigration sentiment (except when the immigrants are from Ukraine, it would seem) and provide a pretext for continuing British support for Israel’s genocide of Palestinians, in which Britain is implicated, not least through the support it provides to Israel from its air force base in the Greek sector of Cyrpus. The new Labour government is committed to developing and setting up a Gestapo-like Border Security Command and forming a “returns and enforcement unit, with an additional 1,000 staff, to fast-track removals to safe countries for people who do not have the right to stay here.”

Color Revolutions

In the wake of the latest Color Revolution failure in Venezuela and preparations for another in Georgia in October, readers will be interested in an account by Kit Klarenberg and Max Blumenthal of how the prime Color Revolution instigator, the Nationl Endowment for Democracy, is collapsing under the weight of a feud between long-time neocon Count Dracula (aka Carl Gershman) and a team of relatively new, more naive, “woke” hires. See NED.