Ukraine Advances

I shall be traveling for much of today but expect to write a longer report later today or tomorrow. From Dima’s report earlier this morning of Thursday (California time) I ascertain that we should expect continuing Ukrainian advances in all directions in Kursk from Sudzha while Russia continues construction of a line of fortification south of and westwards from Kursk. Much of the Kursk oblast is being evacuated. Highest figure for evacuees in this region suggests 200,000 already, so we can expect this to rise significantly.

The continued expansion of operations by Ukraine suggests to me that this was never just about the Kursk nuclear power plant but about grabbing territory to force a negotiation. The number of Ukrainians so far involved in the Kursk operation has been cited at a fairly modest level of 11,000 as of yesterday but new troops and vehicles are coming in all of the time. Two Ukrainian brigades so far have been rendered inoperational.

Russia appears not to have redeployed troops from the Donbass so far but is bringing in fresh troops. In other parts of the combat lines Russia is making modest gains in the Lyptsi area of Kharkiv and may now consider an advance on Kharkiv city (which, if so, would be a departure from existing stated intentions); there is no recent news of Vovchansk. In North Kupyansk area Russia continues to make advances in and around Tabaivka area where Ukrainian forces are encircled. Further south there are significant Russian gains in the Toretsk and Niu-York areas. Russian forces are taking several villages around the city of Pokrovsk. No news of Chasiv Yar today nor from west Avdiivka or Siversk. In Southern Donbass it appears that Russia has physical control over several stretches of the main supply road, T05-24, between Kostyintynivka and Vuhledar.