Two Patriots to Save Neoliberal Ukraine from Catastrophe (Not)(R)

Kharkiv Dilemmas

Zelinsky is in Kharkiv - it is reported today on the Military Summary Channel - doubtless trying to repair the damage caused by the incompetence of Budanov and Syrski and the Ukrainian contractors who failed (or accepted bribes not) to build decent fortifications in the area of the borderlands.

Zelinsky told an ABC reporter that he particularly needs two Patriot missiles for the defense of Kharkiv. I can see why he would want these (I suppose two is as many as even he, ever the supplicant, imagines he can possiby get) but I dont understand his confidence that this would be sufficient to protect Kharkiv from anything very much. First off, Russia has already destroyed many Patriot systems in Ukraine, and has destroyed most if not all of the air defense systems around Kharkiv; secondly the Patriot missiles are not suitable against approaching land forces; and thirdly, Patriot missiles will be pretty useless against Russian forces once they have penetrated the defense system that Ukraine is hurriedly arranging around the city. I think Zelenskiy, ever the showman, is posturing in order to give the false impression that there is something, anything, that might change the situation to the advantage of his regime.

The whole business of Zelenskiy’s request for Patriots presumes that Russia is indeed interested in acquiring Kharkiv and is not simply focused on the development of a buffer zone. I think the chances are that Russia is still more focused on the buffer zone than on taking Kharkiv. I suspect the two goals are mutually contradictory.

If Russia wants to bring an end to Ukrainian attacks on civilian targets in Belgorod, then it has further work to do, firstly in taking Lyptsi (where it has entered the settlement from the north and from the east, but must still cross the Kharkiv river) and secondly in taking Vovchansk (whose northern section above the Volcha river is now under Russisan control, while Russia has fire control over the supply roads into the southern section, and has destroyed some 20 Ukrainian armored vehicles to date), So these are things that Russia is currently doing but has not yet finished. It must also stretch the line of invasion to above Udy and Kosacha Lopan to the west, from which attacks on Belgorod are also made.

If and when Lyptsi falls, Russia may at that point move west towards Mali Prokhody and Velyk Prohody. Russia has been striking Ruski Tyshky, directly south of Lyptsi either to discourage a Ukrainian counterattack or in preparation for moving southwards. Redeployment of Ukrainian brigades is focusing on a defense ring around Kharkiv and may be hindered as a result of Russia’s relentless recent attacks on energy facilities across Ukraine. Ukraine has counterattacked on the western flank of Vovchansk at the village of Starytsia which it has retaken, while Buhruvatka remains under Russian control.

But I dont think Russia is particularly interested in controlling Kharkiv for the sake of controlling Kharkiv. Russia is primarily interested in winning the war so as to complete it satisfactorily, in a manner which is not dependent on totally undependable Ukrainian or NATO treaties and agreements, yet secures Russia’s legitimate national interests. As I explained in my post yesterday, these are far broader than just Ukraine. But for the moment, it may be enough for Russia that for Ukraine the combat line is greatly extended and that Ukrainian forces are further stretched, simply because this enhances the overall efficacy of Russia’s attritional warfare.

Elsewhere, Ukraine has launched a drone and missile attack on targets across Crimea. This occurred during daylight hours, perhaps indicating energy problems that make nighttime operations more difficult. I have yet to see dependable assessments of the damage accomplished. These reportedly include the loss of two Russisan MiG31s and one S400m air defense system. A Ukrainian effort to deploy marine drones on the west of Crimea appears to have been largely rebuffed.

The Battlefields

In Northern Kupyansk area, recent Russian activity seems still to be focused on Berestove which Russia was reported recently to have entered, but there are also suggestions that Russia may bypass Berestove to make headway directly westwards to Pischane. In the Siversk area, the Russian pummeling of Sprine continues while in the Bakhmut/Chasiv Yar area Russian forces close in on Kalynivke to the north, the eastern microdistrict of Chasiv Yar, and the forest that borders the Siverski-Donetsk Kanal to the south.

In Avdiivka area there are indications that Russian forces are digging in to the west of Ocheretyne in preparation to deal with Ukrainian counterattacks (one of which pushed back Russian forces moving in the direction of Sokil), even as Russia continues to bomb Novopoktrovske snd Novoselivka Persha in likely preparation for a ground offensive.

Immediately south, Russia is completing operations in Umankse which is 90% controlled by Russian forces, and Netailove which is completely controlled by Russisn forces. Ukrainian troops are being pushed back in the direction of Karlivka which, as I suggested in yesterday’s post, is likely to form a key component of a new Ukrainian defense line west of Avdiivka. Operations by Russian forces in Krasnohoriivka aim to take the final, high-rise area northwest of the settlement.

The Russian MoD confirms that Russian forces are in control of Robotyne to the southwest and pushing Ukraine back northwards to Novodanylivka.

Blinken Rock(y) Star

LtCol Tony Shaffer told Judge Napolitano earlier today of May 16th that the numbers required for a Ukrainian victory were never there. “There is nothing real about this Administration.” Blinken’s talentless, virtue-signalling rendition of Keep on Rocking in the Free World, an anti-war song which runs contrary to everything the US has stood for to this point in the conflict, is symptomatic of an administration that is fundamentally out of touch and out of synch. Shaffer considers that Russia is three months from Kiev, because so much of the money that Ukraine has received from Washington goes to corruption. Hundreds of so-called tiger-teeth cement defensive fortifications have been identified lying unused, unpositioned, in the very same area where they should have been in place during the Russian offensive.

I note that the Biden administration today is threatening to send in “advisers” which, were it to happen, might, at best, but might not, keep the theatricality going until immediately after the US presidential election in November. Britain’s Sunak, never shy of outdoing the US in vainglorious hypocrisy on behalf of the UK’s tiny army, is talking in charmingly Victorian terms about sending an “expeditionary force,” which will surely be eliminated by Russia.

The Endpoint of Neoliberal Ideology is Its Opposite

Alexander Mercouris in his daily broadcast today makes the interesting observation that consumer and every other positive kind of confidence in Russia are at a peak, not least because Russia has entirely gotten over its fad for neoliberalism, originally and innocently spearheaded by Gorbachev’s capitalist turn and its further, more wilful execution by his nemesis, Yeltsin.

This led in the 1990s to economic and cultural catastrophe, a catastrophe whose underlying cause and fundamental deception was further exposed by the global financial crisis of monopoly capitalism of 2008. Putin has supported Russian statism, and brought the oligarchs under control. He has left private enterprise alone, but ensured that vital parts of economy, including weapons production, are controlled by state-owned institutions (so unlike in the US where weapons companies set outrageous prices, politicians spend the money and the taxpayers cough up). This semi-statist model is one that suits Russian history, and Russian culture.

Palestine

Symptomatic of the horrific assaults on the first amendment being carried out by law enforcement at the behest of University administrations across the USA, peaceful students, protesting on a campus green at UMass Amherst have been brutalized by police, called in by a new President, hog-tied and not allowed to use the bathroom. There was no violence until the cops arrived. A previous, comparable protest two years ago caused no such violence.

The students have been charged with trespass on their own campus, not permitted access to their own dormitories they have paid for. Max Blumenthal today, interviewed by Judge Napolitano, cites the CEO of Palantir (biggest US private spying firm, working for Israel) as saying that if the student protests are not controlled then the US will not longer be able to send armies to war. The student protests “do truly threaten American empire,” says Blumenthal.

At UCLA the cops conveniently disappeared or stood by for four hours as pro-Israeli thugs beat protesting students.

This national scandal is exposing links between University board members and senior members of the Security state, often the same people, and between the oppressive role of University donors and pro-Israeli plutocrats. To be victimized by the Security state now, it is enough for those concerned about genocide in Gaza just to express what their opponents calls “anti-American” ideas to suffer violence, derision and persecution.