Ukraine Battlefields
Russian forces are accelerating, and in conjunction with that acceleration the conditions for peace are hardening.
In south Donetsk, Russian forces are now well north of Urozhaine and Staramaiorske, heading up via Makarivka with a view to eventually taking Volyka Novosika. Already Russian forces are bombing villages north of Volyka Novosika around Rozdoine and Novocheretuvate which are due west of Russian-held Shaklarske which, in turn, is due west of what is now Russian-held Bohoiavtenka, north of Vuhledar. Russian forces are moving north of Bohoiavtenake towards Usponivka and Hannivka and, northeastwards to Illinka, which is close what is now Russian-held Antonivka and Katerynivka.
In the Kurakhove area, much of the borders of the Kurakhove resevoir are still held by Ukraine, but Russia has taken the eastern end of the resevoir around Stepanivka and Ostrivksa, while Russian forces are storming Berestky on the northern banks and moving on Illinka, while north of Stari Terry at the western end of the resevoir, they have entered Sontshka.
Further north still, Russian forces are bombing Novoselydivka and have just taken Kreminna Balka to its north. The settlement of Selydove on the route to Pokransk is now entirely under Russian control and to the west, Russian forces are advancing on Selidovo, between Noovoloksiivks and Novodmytrivka. To the east of Selydove, Russian forces have taken the coal mine west of Krutyi Yar.
There has been a significant set-back to the Russian advance on Siversk north of Ivano Darivka, although Russia continues to hold Vyimka. In the Kupyansk area, Russians have enterered the village of Terni to the south and Seknovk to the north.
In Kursk, it has been said that Syrski has ordered the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops, even while reinforcements have been sent to protect existing Ukrainian troops from a third wave of the Russian counteroffensive from the east expected in the direction of Montynivko.
RT cites RFE/RL (posted at Natylie’s Place (Baldwin) as reporting that the Ukrainian military has reportedly instructed soldiers to avoid using the term “retreat” in communication with the press, according to a reporter from RFE/RL, the US state-run foreign media network. A source claimed that reports based on reality are often withheld from the top command as commanders fear disciplinary actions or job loss. Ukraine’s manpower and logistical challenges are exacerbated by 100,000 cases of desertion. Not only is the army faltering, so too is the legislature. A contributor to Le Monde in a piece also republished st Natylie’s Place (Baldwin2) writes that since the start of the invasion, the number of MPs has fallen to 401 out of 450 seats:
“28 have lost their mandates or resigned, two have been killed, and the remaining seats were already empty since the annexation of Crimea and the occupation of part of the Donbas in 2014. The priority is clear: Everyone must stay in their posts. According to political analyst Ihor Kohut, a deal has reportedly been struck with the resigners to convince them to stay. "This is a huge challenge in terms of democracy, since their mandate has expired," said the expert. "But they have to stay until new elections are held, and nobody knows when that will be possible!"“
Geopolitics of the Ukrainian Conflict
It remains to be confirmed as to whether President Elect Trump will bring the conflict to an end, as he has promised, by stopping the flow of Western aid to Ukraine in return for the entry of Russia into negotiations. This could only have a positive outcome, I surmise, if Trump offers direct negotiation with Russia as opposed to Trump giving the impression of banging Russian and Ukrainian heads together.
This is a conflict, first and foremost, between the collective West and Russia and that relationship is the propor locus for any negotiation. Besides which, Russia will not negotiate with Zelenskiy who is himself now ruling illegitimately, as is his government. Because Russia’s position on the battlefield is strong, Russian terms will be high and they will surely require the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the entirety of the four oblasts already absorbed into the Russian Federation, along with all of Russia’s other conditions at Istanbul in 2022, plus some and the “some” will likely be further consolidated by Russian gains between now and the end of January. Trump’s proposed alternative in the event that Russia does not enter into negotiation - which is that the US will intensify the flow of weapons - is less than compelling at a time when Western weapons stocks are low and the US is contemplating wars on three fronts in the dismal effort to shore up Western hegemony.
Just as the Western war effort in Ukraine is undermined by the electoral success of Trump, the EU is weakened by the collapse of the Germany’s governing coalition. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister on Wednesday, leaving the government teetering on the brink of collapse, only days after negotiation between the key members of Germany’s coalition - Scholz of the Social Democratic Party, Lindner of the Free Democratic Party, and Robert Habeck of the Green Party. Scholz plans to call a confidence vote for January 15, which could allow elections to be held by the end of March next year. Lindner’s party believed in the necessity for a partly fundamental revision of key political decisions is necessary in order to avert damage to Germany as a business location. Lindner has accused Scholz of having asked him to pause the “debt brake” – a constitutional article that prevents the government from borrowing excessively and amassing debt. The collapse of the coalition has been welcomed by far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
West Asian Crisis
For the World Socialist Web Site, Jean Shaoul notes that Israel. Noting thst at least 772 Isrseli soldiers and security personnel have lost their lives in the genocidal assault on Gaza and at least 12,000 more have been injured, and that tens of thousands of reservists have been forced to do months of reserve duty, provoking anger among secular Israelis already alienated by the increasing dominance of the religious authorities over daily life, she assesses the impact of Trump’s success in the recent US election. This comes at the same time as Netanyahu’s sacking of Gallant, who has been perceived as closer to Washington’s foreign policy preferences than Netanyahu, and somewhat more disposed to a ceasefire.
“Netanyahu congratulated Trump effusively for what he called “history’s greatest comeback” and called his campaign “a huge victory” and “a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.”
“Trump, who draws significant support from the US evangelical Christian movement, which has long supported the Zionist project, has made contradictory remarks on the campaign trail about the war in Gaza, alternately condemning the anti-Israel protests while promising peace in Gaza and Lebanon to US voters of Arab origin. But Netanyahu calculates that he will be backed by Trump once he becomes president.
“During his 2017-2021 term of office, Trump gave Netanyahu his full support—closing down the Palestine Liberation Organisation’s office in Washington; recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital; moving the US embassy to Jerusalem; recognising Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Syrian Golan Heights; withdrawing from the United Nations Human Rights Council; cutting $200 million funding to the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank; unilaterally abandoning the nuclear treaty with Iran; negotiating the Abraham Accords between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco; designating Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terrorist organisation; assassinating its leader General Qassem Soleimani; and strengthening US ties with the dictators in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
“Recognising the threat posed by Trump’s call for Israel to end its wars in Gaza and Lebanon before he takes office in January, and sacking Gallant, Netanyahu is following Israel’s well-worn policy of “creating facts on the ground”—preparing for an even more aggressive military policy now so that the incoming Trump administration will have to support him.”