Trump-Netanyahu

For West Asia the success of Donald Trump in the US presidential election theoretically signifies more intensive US support for an expansion of Israeli borders. This in turn however implicates the US in an ever more dangerous conflict in which not only Iran is drawn but also, and in a way that is not good for Israel, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey not to mention Syria, Iraq, Jordan and Egypt.

The election of Trump, furthermore, may finally convey to Iran the message that restraint does not work for Iran, that it must now strike.

Not least because of the seriousness of the political crisis in Tel Aviv which weakens Israel in this moment. Gallant has been fired over tensions with Netanyahu over the mobilization of Orthodox Jews, Israel’s continuing responsibility for the hostages still held by Hamas, and charges and investigations by Shin Bet concerning Netanyahu’s implementation in effect of a “let it happen” policy on October 7 2023 (I would argue this should be understood as a “make it happen” policy) and of mishandling of classified intelligence. Meanwhile Malaysia plans to propose to the UN that Israel should be expelled. There could be an embarrassing measure of support for that proposition.

Considerable controversy continues to swirl over the issue of whether Israel did or did not inflict significant damage on Iran on October 26. I trust the voices of Crooke, Ritter, Macgregor, McGovern and Johnson more than I trust Israeli claims or those of the Pentagon. Iran is a technologically advanced entity, a country of 100 million people with powerful alliances and major historical grievances with the rules-based order. It’s enemies do not seem to understand that.