Too Reasonable

A quick comment as to where we are as this week draws towards an end.

First, Gaza. Hamas is taking a huge risk in agreeing to give up its hostages in exchange for Israeli-held prisoners/hostages as part of the first phase of a multi-phase agreement. Hamas negotiators must know that they are investing huge trust in the totally untrustworthy US and Netanyahu’s government. They presumably are doing this because they feel the pressure of responsibility for the lives of up to two million Palestinians in Gaza and know that without an agreement these lives will be considerably more vulnerable, even, than they already are.

With an agreement, even, it is still quite possible, likely, that Israel will backtrack on some pretext or another, and that the US will fail to honor any security guarantees. If negotiations do continue towards a second or third phase, there is every likelihood, I would say probability, that they will fail. Particularly sticky will be the questions surrounding the future governance of Gaza, the extent to which it can be possibly a Palestinian entity, how its members would be selected, one that even includes (as Trump has indicated) a role for Hamas, and the very sensitive issues to do with Arab and any other category of peace-keepers (with Egypt’s Sisi recently reported as saying these would need to include US troops - he possibly has a good sense for just how unpopular his own forces will prove to be). I have yet to see any meaningful reference in the negotiations so far to the future of the West Bank, to Zionist objectives for a Greater Israel, and to the possibility of a meaningful Palestinian state that can actually surmount all of the physical and other hurdles embedded in the Abram Accords that undermine the practical possibility of coexistence between an overreaching, geographically solid, relatively wealthy Zionist State and a weak, geographically fragmented, impoverished Palestine.

Second, Russia. There is genuine scope for debate as to whether Putin has what it takes for Russia to take advantage of the fact that the West currently is weak. Am I say I want nuclear war? Of course not, but nuclear war is what we will get if the Neocons are allowed their way.

Europe, grasping at what remains of stolen Russian assets (riding roughshod over EuroClear and the Belgium government, because the EU is now Ursula von der Leyen’s little empire) and with the US still very much a player in the background - since US technicians, satellite data, intelligence support etc. will be needed for the Himars that are almost certainly already being fired from Ukraine against Russian oil refineries, and for the Tomahawks that the US will likely end up sending, not forgetting to mention the German technicians that will be necessary for the firing of Taurus missiles - continues to prepare for World War Three.

For this event German Chancellor Merz has kindly advised us to put a red circle on our calendar around the date April 1, 2029 (well, 2029, if not exactly Fool’s Day although that would be appropriate), although we should wonder whether Germany or any of its companions will have avoided utter bankruptcy in the meantime.

Why would Putin want to take such theatrics seriously?

Putin may be so focused on winning the war in Ukraine - and I believe that he will, soon (given Ukraine’s effective bankruptcy already and Russian destruction of its energy system). And because Zelenskiy will hold on to Presidential power illegally, Russia will raise the price of Ukraine’s defeat to include four more oblasts - in addition to Crimea and the four oblasts that are already integrated into the Russian Federation - to include Odessa and the rest of the Black Sea litoral as well as Cherniviv, Sumy, Kharkiv. But Putin’s focus on Ukraine is distracting him from the attention and preparation for the already unfolding World War, giving valuable time for Russia’s enemies to rebuild their armories and armies.

China, and Russia and the BRICS, if they are interested in their sovereignty and the freedom of their peoples, need to get off the fence, now. Manifest consolidation of their stength in timely fashion will change their destinies and save the world. This could begin with a change of Putin’s strategy on Ukraine, moving from attrition to decapitation: not a sound moral position, I know, but just noting that this would mean a quick end of the war, sending a compelling message to a Quixotic and divided Europe and providing more time for Russia, with its allies, to finalize their strategy for heading off the US threat perhaps by some form of unanswerable show of strength leveragable for ushering in a new and gentler, multipolar world.

Thirdly, Venezuala: Trump has broadened the coming war to include Colombia or some kind of Colombian involvement by murdering a boat-load of Colombian citizens without any legal or any other kind of justification. Has Trump bought Brazilian silence by offering a better deal on tariffs to Lula, and confirmed Argentine silence by bailing out Argentina from the latest economic fiasco of its ruling class as wrought by Milei? Probably. Lula like Erdogan, and Modi need to stop playing narrowly domestic games of cat and mouse with the interests of Washington and the interests of the Global South.

Fourthly, Iran: Does not look good. Russia and China are unlikely to ramp up their own protections for Iran in time and to the necessary degree to ensure a crushing defeat for Israel and for the US. Israel will certainly take a major hit, but probably not incapacitating. The humiliating implications of a dismembered Iran and a resurgent Turkey-Armenia-Azerbaijan buffer for Russia and China to the north and a Greater Israel entity to the south incorporating much of Lebanon, Syria and Iraq may be the final stimulus to Russia, China and the BRICS to finally get their shit together.