The Published 28 Point Proposal: Another Washington Hoax (UpDate)

This has appeared in Larry Johnson’s Sonar21 blog here: - Sonar 21

Dima at the Military Summary Channel notes this morning of November 21 that there are several versions circulating of this proposal. The differences between different versions are major, probably because this is all still in process.

The primary thing to notice is that on Wednesday 19th Russian foreign office spokeswoman Maria Zakharove stated the the ministry had not yet received an official copy of the proposal. If true, and I can see no reason why she would lie, we know we are dealing with a load more hogwash from Washington or, at least, from Witkoff and his enablers; Dmitriev has no official status to agree anything on behalf of Moscow.

As I worried yesterday, none of what I see in the Johnson version seems serious. There is no reason whatsoever why Russia, winning on the battlefield, with Putin’s June 2024 terms long outdated by battlefield advances, amidst a forever stream of evidence that confirms that the US is agreement-incapable, would want to pick up on this insane mishmash, let alone why Ukraine or Europe would sign it either. Don’t forget that that the Minsk agreements were UNSC endorsed but violated anyway.

Note that it is only “expected” that NATO will not expand. Yes, Ukraine would have to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO and NATO would agree a statute prohibiting acceptance of NATO as a member, but Ukraine would retain the right to EU membership (even while the EU grows indistinguishable from NATO by the day).

Once again, after four miserable years of comparable US stupidity, the whole thing is being framed as Mr. Nice USA sorting out a playground scruffle between two equally pugnacious little boys. The Washington mindset, in other words, is a fantasy of benign hegemony. That the US continues talking this way reminds us that even if there is “peace” in Ukraine nothing fundamental will have changed in the global order.

Ukraine would be allowed an absolutely idiotic 600,000-sized army (Russia in 2022 was talking of a cap of 85,000!) and given “reliable” security guarantees (but perhaps for only 10 years according to one version). No foreign troops in Ukraine (I assume, but do not see this as explicitly stated) but European/NATO fighter aircraft would be stationed in Poland (where they already are). Since I first wrote that last sentence I learn from Dima that, as it stands, the agreement would not prevent individual NATO countries from sending troops into Ukraine. The British are preparing troops to send once the agreement is signed; a Russian attack on such troops would lead the US to pronounce Russia in violation of the agreement and we would return to sanctions and Western war on Russia.

Thus the hoax.

And the kicker: US to get paid for being such a very helpful mediator and giving guarantees. And the US would cooperate with Ukraine in a whole wide raft of joint reconstruction, development and modernization projects, with lucrative business opportunities for the US, including in the area of minerals and natural resources, with the gracious help of that famously independent institute of absolute integrity, the World Bank.

Russia meanwhile would benefit only from a slow-track journey to a new order without sanctions, and with a new companion in Arctic projects, namely the US. And would be allowed re-entry to the G7 which it doesn’t want anyway.

Oh, and $100 billion of frozen Russian assets would be invested in US-led reconstruction and investment efforts in Ukraine and in a separate joint US-Russian investment vehicle. Doctorow this morning seems to take comfort from what he says will be UN involvement in these processes. He entirely ignores the point that the assets are Russian and it is for Russia to decide what it will do with its own assets. Granted that European powers will be asked to provide an equivalent amount. Fat chance.

Talking about the UN - where the hell is it?

There is a nod in the right direction towards extending the validity of non-proliferation treaties, including START. Ukraine would continue to be a non-nuclear state. The ZNPP (now under Russian control) would be restarted under IAEA control and the electricity split between Russia and Ukraine. None of this will be of interest to Russia. There would be measures towards religious and linguistic tolerance according to EU rules (why would Russia be impressed by that?) and Nazi ideology and activity prohibited.

Kherson and Zapporizhzhia would be frozen along the line of contact; Russia would give up other annexed territories (other than Crimea and the Donbass).Again, Russia will not accept that.

Ukraine would hold elections within 100 days after the agreements are signed, and a ceasefire would enter into force upon agreement.

Indeed, Dima earlier today interprets the situation as an attempt to establish a ceasefire that will last long enough for presidential and parliamentary elections which will bring new faces to the makeup of Ukrainian leadership and after which there will be a protracted period of (hopefully) negotiation.

Putin has now explicitly welcomed the plan as the basis for a possible final solution. It is difficult to see that he can do anything else until such time as he can take the measure of a new political regime in Kiev to succeed the corruption addled-Zelenskiy regime, now discredited everywhere it seems except among European leaders who may be party to the corruption.

I don’t think it is going to work, given what we know about all the players, many if not most of whom, for their different reasons, need a continuation of war. Putin knows that. I don’t think he is expecting “peace” any time soon.