The Mannerheim Moment
Russian advances around Bakhmut, Marinka etc. are unmistakable. Russia’s latest missile barrage is de-energizing Ukraine well beyond the 50% point, as well as its transportation system. Senior Ukrainian officials, notably including the commander in chief, General Zaluzhny (a rightg-winger, supporter of Bandera), are telling the West that Ukraine has reached a critical point. Either the West provides Ukraine with pretty much all the remaining weapons in NATO’s armoury, or Ukraine will have reached the “Mannerheim point,” - that is, the same point at which in March 1940, Finland surrendered to Soviet Union given the unwillingness of the West to provide the necessary weapons and support.
Britain, as indicated in the flagship of neoconservatism, The Economist, and in recent comments from Zelenskiy’s greatest Western fan, former prime minister Boris Johnson, is at the forefront of attempts to persuade NATO powers to go “all-in.” In the US, surprisingly, there is considerably more controversy and skepticism. Even senior Democrat Adam Schiff is talking about “managing the war,” rather than major escalation and arguing the need to talk with Russia
If the support that Zelenskiy and Zaluzhny are demanding (in a climate in which there is growing tiredness in NATO countries with Ukraine, and nervousness about how things are actually turning out) is not forthcoming, then things are looking bad for Ukraine. Ukraine has only 200,000 men in combat (even if it has another 500,000 ‘in uniform”) while Russia has 500,000, with a capability of bringing in another 1.5 million. Zaluzhny admits that Ukraine’s Kharkiv counteroffensive has petered out. He admits that Russia’s mobilization has been successful. He talks of the Ukrainian army “bleeding” on the frontlines even as he claims to be trying to build up strength in the rear. He indicates that the possibility of a Ukrainian strike from Zapporizhzhia down to Azov is inconceivable.
As Alexander Mercouris notes in The Duran earlier today, the Neocons always start strong and end catastrophically (but, we can add, then try to doubtle-down, persisting with the same strategies that brought them to catastrophe. The US is now telling the Europeans that they will have to double their war expenditure if they want to sustain Ukraine: it is difficult to see how even the effete leaders of Europe , mired in energy crisis, general economic crisis and recession, can justify this nonsense. Even as the Netherlands and other supposed “liberals” look for regime change in Moscow and human rights tribunals in The Hague etc…..typical one-sided neocon virtue-signalling fantasy land that is perhaps aimed at intimidating Moscow as much as anything, referencing the Magnitsky Act of 2013 that ushered in the sanctioning of individuals). Increasingly, Ukraine looks like Vietnam 1975. Victory is impossible because the resources required to achieve it are beyond reason.