The Issue is Global Security Architecture (GSA)

Putin Speech to Russian Duma

I am pleased to hear President Putin verify in his recent “state of the nation” address to the Russian Federation Assembly, something that I have long been insisting here is the case namely, that before Russia and the collective West agree anything there will have to be agreement on a framework for a new global security architecture, an agreement in which the voices of the Global Majority will be every bit as thunderous as those of the West and of Russia.

“Our position is clear: if you want to discuss security and stability issues that are critical for the entire planet, this must be done as a package including, of course, all aspects that have to do with our national interests and have a direct bearing on the security of our country, the security of Russia….

Clearly, a new equal and indivisible security framework must be created in Eurasia in the foreseeable future. We are ready for a substantive discussion on this subject with all countries and associations that may be interested in it. At the same time, I would like to reiterate (I think this is important for everyone) that no enduring international order is possible without a strong and sovereign Russia”.

(My thanks for a link to the Kremlin Website transcript provided today by Natalyie Baldwin at Baldwin)

The main implications of this, therefore, are (1) NATO’s proxy war with Russia to the last Ukrainian has never been a “local” conflict; (2) Ukraine has knowingly rented itself out to the selfish geopolitical aspirations of the Western neocon cabal. Like a doting grandfather to his three year old grandson, the neocons have been allowed free access to the driver seat of Western foreign policies, vacated by inept globalist elites; (3) the Ukraine conflict cannot be resolved in talks between Russia and Ukraine because Ukraine is in the pocket of NATO; it is not now, if it has ever been, an authentically independent state - Ukraine has no authority over the factors that need to be controlled if there is to be a lasting peace; besides, a good part of Ukraine is more secure within Russia and is existentially more Russian than Ukrainian; (4) because this state of affairs is an horrendous affront to their sense of importance, and because this generation of European elites and the upper middle classes they represent is utterly dependent on the USA for their continued social class privileges (comparable to these of East European elites in Soviet times) there can be no peaceful settlement to the conflict, at least until the US pulls the plug on Europe in order to concentrate on what it believes is its next heroic mission (also doomed to failure) against China; (5) the European elite’s capacity for stubbornness in protection of their privilege will endanger the world with the potential for nuclear conflict. For this, Russia appears better prepared, enjoys superior weaponry and greater flexibility than the collective West - though it remains doubtful that there can be anything “winning” about nuclear war; (6) the rational way is the way of multipolarity; the institutional infrastructure for this is now at an advanced stage; (7) prevailing global fissures today are those between globalists (under the umbrella of US hegemony) and nationalists (under the umbrella of multipolar institutions); (8) upon settlement of a new era of multipolar balance, the world cannot avoid a reintroduction of older left-versus-right discourses. These will reinstate the standards of social democratic populist legacy. There can be no social justice within frameworks (be they US, Chinese or Russian) of unregulated capitalism. Capitalists of any stripe cannot be trusted as long term guarantors of social justice. Yes, I know that in Russia Putin’s dirigiste approach to governance currently seems to be working well in terms of favoring the interests of the masses, but this beneficence is not untypical of regimes that want to be regarded as progressive and who need to curry popular support - we saw this is in Britain in the 1940s but it was not to last; (9) I do not see the current UN as the appropriate authenticator of the new global order, even if its replacement or reformed version will build consciously and respectfully on the foundations laid by the UN. But the UN itself, its systems of governance are now so deeply penetrated by globalist upper classes, neoliberal ideological presumptions and US hegemony (not to mention its situation in New York), that so routinely fail, that a root and branch reformulation is a necessity.

Battlefields

Canada has said that it is open to sending “non-combatant” troops to Ukraine; France has said it will send special forces (which, of course, it has done in the past) - France says it will not send troops to Ukraine to die for Ukraine but it will send troops to die for France. Several other European countries have denied interest in putting troops into Ukraine.

Olof Scholz of Germany says he does not want the war to continue yet Germany continues to send weapons supplies to Ukraine, and leaked recent appear to show German-French collaboration in a plan to fire Taurus missiles from French planes against the Kerch bridge (20 such missiles are said to be needed for the operation). British and US special troops or contracted civilians are said to have been involved in doing all the programming for Ukraine in preparation for the firing of Storm Shadow missiles from Su24s. Similar levels of NATO (German?) involvement would be needed in the event of Germany sending Taurus missiles, where, Putin has warned them, Russia may engage in retaliatory strikes with hypersonic Zircon missiles.

It is clearer than ever before that NATO is already involved on the ground in Ukraine. The only reason why Putin is not already firing Zircons and Kinzhals on Paris, Berlin and London is because he finds it convenient to pretend he believes NATO protestations of innocence.

The US says it has come up with a missing $4 billion which it may use to provide ATACMS missiles for htting targets deep in Russia, another potential escalation that could lead to the launch by Russia of Kinzhal and Kircon missiles.

The Scholz disclosures are suggestive of emerging fissures between Germany on the one hand; and France and London, on the other.

Russia has warned NATO that it can expect the same fate as Ukraine should it places forces directly into the field. It has the right to hit back and it has the means, said Putin yesterday in his annual address to the Duma reminding the world that anyone who has tried to move on Russia in the past has come to grief and that the same will happen to anyone who tries it again. Western commentators have called these statements “threats” and “bluffs,” whereas they were, in fact, statements of fact and of deterrence.

The Wall Street Journal’s publications of the draft peace deal that was on the table in March 2022 and that was rejected by Zelenskiy and by NATO, even after endorsed by signatories to the draft, confirms that the peace burden on Ukraine was very light, focusing on its neutrality so far as NATO was concerned.

There have been Ukrainian attacks on Crimea. These appear not to have been successful. Russia shot down two Ukrainian planes, one of which was a carrier of Storm Shadow missiles. Note that the Kerch Bridge is no longer as strategic as it once was, given Russian progress in road and raid communications in the landbridge established between Crimea and the Russian “mainland.”

We have no further evidence of Russian attacks west of Avdiivka. Further south, Russian forces are now penetrating Kostiantynivka, which is west of Novomykhailivka (which Russia has penetrated but which is not under total Russian control). There has been more Russian activity in the direction of Krasnohorivka. Russia is moving increasingly on the second Ukrainian defense belt, the first having collapsed at various points. Ukraine is said to be surrounding Kiev with three rings of fortification and surrounding Khakiv with two such rings - all of which sounds extremely ambitious if these attempts are really of recent origin. Near Bakhmut, there are heavy clashes around Ivanivske.

The Russian MoD claims that Ukraine is losing lives at the rate of over 1,000 a day.