The Fate of Color Revolution

Color Revolution, Birth of

This piece on the so-called (non) massacre at Tiananmen Square in Beijing in 1989 (see link below) is a good reminder of the constant Western mischief involved in establishing and maintaining its hegemony by means of the weaponization of “democracy” movements worldwide, usually in very undemocratic and nontransparent and sometimes in very violent ways, and has a long history. The methodology of creating and then promoting “pro-democracy” US or Atlanticist hegemony (i.e. authoritarian “democratic” control) played out in the US-funded Maidan coup d’etat of 2013-2014, and its usefulness is by no means over, even as, in response to the strengthening of a resistant, multipolar world, the West is forced to supplement its regime-change antics with pirouettes on the precipice of nuclear annihilation.

https://swprs.org/tiananmen-square-massacre-deception/

Ukraine Nuclear Escalations

Much discussion over the past few days has dwelt on the implications of US/NATO relaxation of rules on the use by Ukraine of Western weapons on Russian targets in Russia and the firing of Western air defense missiles such as the Patriot on Russian missile over Russia.

None of this is actually new. For example a few months ago, Ukraine used a Patriot missile to down a Russian Ilyushin jet flying over Belgorod. The plane was carrying Ukrainian prisoners-of-war who were destined for a prisoner swap, had they survived, which they didn’t. But talk of such “permissions” has ratcheted up the escalatory rhetoric, in the context of something that is definitely original, namely Ukrainian strikes (not hugely successful, so far as we know) on Russian nuclear early-warning radar stations, whose purpose is to “blind” Russia to incoming ICBM missiles. Even with this ground-based radar system Russia still has significantly less warning time than does the US, and without the radar it is considerably handicapped.

Blinding Russia makes sense for an opposing power (yes that very same power that is preparing yet more tediously provocative “exercises” along Russian borders) that is intending a first nuclear strike. It does not prevent a response, but creates conditions in which nuclear uncertainties are greatly magnified and less-than-rational decisions are more likely. This being the case, Gilbert Doctorow is probably right to say in his recent argument, that the escalation to nuclear war is unlikely to be a straight path but, at least so far as Russia is concerned - Russia has consistently shown that it is not easily riled up to anger or irrationality, never takes the bait, in other words - we should expect Russia to respond to provocations (as Putin, Lavrov and Rybakov have all recently assured us) but to do so with a high degree of deliberation. In this instance, in the event of a Western nuclear attack (presumably not on the same scale as was once plotted by the Pentagon back in the 1950s on the premise that even if the US was reduced by 75%, its remaining 25% would still be stronger than its Soviet counterpart), Doctorow predicts that Russia would destroy Kiev. This I believe it can probably do via the use of conventional weapons. In so far as the usefulness of nuclear weapons on Ukraine is concerned, Russia must be mindful of how the considerable after-shock will impact Russia itself. It might later consider targeting nuclear or other Western facilities in any part of the globalist empire.

So Doctorow is saying that the escalation will be relatively slow. But it is still escalation. And the nuclear authorities who have thought this thing through, as did the late Daniel Ellsburg in his final book (The Doomsday Machine) calculate with great certainty that once this thing gets under way, slowly or quickly, the whole world will perish. There are mutliple reasons for this and if you are concerned that you and your family will die, whether they live in Moscow, Washington or Timbuktu, please read the book.

It should be a consolation to understand that the NATO powers, with the exception of the USA itself are, in the words of Chairman Mao, piper tigers with fragile economies, small armies, depleted stocks of weapons, big on noise and small on substance, and little relevant experience (if they had any, they would have won in Ukraine by now). But there are few things more alarming these days than the extent which Europe - its leaders, politicians, journalists, financial captains, intellectuals, inhabit a delusional bubble fed by its own mediated propaganda machine and by layers upon layers of ideological filtering though political parties, classist education systems, state-inflected media and churches. Europe’s self-delusion will be its undoing, and we should hope that it will not undo us all.

On Offensives and Counteroffensives

There is continuing evidence of a buildup of Russian concentrations of forces north of the border, but these are not being deployed, so far I know, either in the Lyptsi or Vovchansk areas nor, as has been anticipated for several weeks, in the Sumy area, despite reports of the Ukrainian destruction of a Russian convoy on the way to Sumy, reports which seem to have simply disappeared subsequently.

There is continuing evidence of a build up of Ukrainian forces in the area of the borderlands, amidst increasing evidence of alarm in Ukraine about the insufficient numbers of eligible men available for the mobilization effort, the intensity of attempts by those who are eligible to escape into Romania (many of whom are now the victims of mines laid by Ukraine itself to destroy them), and the extreme unpreparedness of those who are mobilized to fight on the front lines, some of these younger and demotivated troops not having received enough training even to know how to manage their weapons. In the meantime the US embassy in Kiev is warning US citizens who have dual Ukrainian nationality to stay at home in order to avoid being drafted, and contact the embassy.

Yet there are Ukrainian counterattacks against Russian positions and at least some of these have been successful, sufficiently successful, it would seem, to impede further Russian advance towards the city of Kharkiv. There is even talk of a Ukrainian counteroffensive that would extend into Russia itself and create a Vovchansk type situation on the Russian mainland.

We should be mindful first, that it was this time last year that Ukraine launched a catastrophically inept counteroffensive that cost it the lives of several hundred thousand troops and, second, that the Russian goal is, as Putin has helpfully explained, to establish a ten-mile buffer zone to better protect Russian towns and villages from Ukraine western-gifted missiles. If the result of more Ukrainian use of western weapons against targets in Russia is more Russian deaths then certainly we might have more urgent reason to think that Russia would, after all, advance on Kharkiv if not on Kiev.

There are many ways in which Western escalations are counterproductive. For example, one retaliatory Russian measure againt Western missile attacks and attacks on Russian nuclear infrastructure will be more intense Russian jamming of Western satellite surveillance and drones over the Black Sea, including the US Global Hawk. This may already be undermining Ukraine’s missile capability. And if the jamming does not work well enough, Russia has already said that it may shoot down the satellites and drones of “third parties” to the conflict.

We should not forget that it is still the case, after two years of bloody war, that there are considerable numbers of men and of weapons on both sides even if, as I explained yesterday, Russia has the strong advantage on the battlefield. So it is inevitable that without a ceasefire, highly unlikely prior to the US presidential election, there will be continuing and very damaging conflict, there will be ebbs and flows, ups and downs, for both sides, although the mathematics ultimately promise a Russian victory short of nuclear annihilation. The notion by the way - in the light not simply of the bloodshed but of the extremely slow progress Russia has made in taking the Donbass and securing the People’s Repubics into the Russian Federation - that Russia has malicious designs on Europe, is patently ridiculous, and there is no evidence whatsoever that Russia has any such intention.

Europe, all by itself, is by far the most likely actor to bring about the collapse and ruination of Europe.

The Battlefields

Russia appears to be recovering somewhat from Ukrainian counterattacks in Vovchansk, has penetrated the industrial zone in the northern sector and is pummeling the center and south of the city. In Kupyansk, Russia is bypassing Synkivka and advancing on Petropavlivka from Vilshana. There are intense artillery duels around Ukrainian positions in Stepova Novoselivka. Russia has suffered setbacks in the area of Stelmakhivka, but continues to advance on the settlement from the east and the north (Berestove). Russia has captured territory and destroyed most of the bridges around Rogova and is advancing on Miasozhsarivka, with the possibility of a later move towards Vyshnavo, the ultimate aim being to take all of the eastern side of the Oskil river.

In the Siversk area, Russia is attacking Verkhnokamienske, possibly with a view to later moving towards Perizne and Feorivka, which are vulnerable also to Russian advances northwards from Sakko I Vantsetti and Mykolaivka. In the Chasiv Yar arwa, Russian forces are moving on Orikhoyo Vasylivka, Bondarme, Pryillia ansd Novomarkove. Ukraine is attempting to counterattack against Russian forces to the north of Chasiv Yar near Kalyrivka.

In Avdiivka area, further south, Russian forces are in the process of semi-encircling Sokil to the west and Novooeleksandra to the northwest of Ocheretyne . To the southwest they are in the process of encircling Yasnobrodivka and have taken the road that connects Umanske (now Russian) to the north of Yasnobrodivka with Netailove (also Russian) to the south. Russia has established control over Heoriivka and has moved to the eastern end of Maksymilianivka to the west with a likely view to establishing control over the H15 highway. This will assist in the southward move of Russian forces from Pobieda and Maksymilianivka on Kostyantynivka, next to which Russia now has control over Paraskovivka and is semi-encircling Kostyantynivka from the east, north and south. From Pavlivka, Russia is intensifying its bombing and shelling of Vuhladar.

Not much has been happening over the past 24 hours in either Staramaiorske or Robotyne. In Kherson by contrast there is sudden intensity of Russian activity across the Dnieper from Kherson city where Russian forces are in the process of taking Dachi and Russian bombing of Ukrainian settlements towards the estuary such as Dniprovokse, Yantarne, Berehove, Deienske, and Kizomys, suggests a possible future Russian advance in this area north of the Dnieper.