Swiss War Conference Amidst Nuclear Threats; Russian Forces Taper on the Battlefield

Nuclear Escalation

Reuters reported on June 12, a statement by NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg concerning what he says are NATO’s efforts to adapt its capabilities to what he called current security threats. He described nuclear weapons as NATO's "ultimate security guarantee" and a means to preserve peace. He has since indicated that the military alliance is considering whether to increase the number of available nuclear weapons, claiming that NATO could face threats from both Russia and China and that it may be necessary to increase the number of deployable warheads as a deterrent. Reuters reported that Stoltenberg told Britain's Telegraph newspaper that NATO members were consulting about taking warheads out of storage and placing them on standby. The Kremlin has today called this an "escalation of tension".

There is no evidence at this time that Russia has any designs whatsoever on NATO members, while evidence of a Chinese interest in threatening NATO are less than zero. But increasingly both Washington and NATO are making assertions as to what they claim is China’s intention to launch an attack on Taiwan in order to forestall its declaration of independence and also say that China is supplying Russia with more weapons (as though it never occurred to anyone in the innocent, collective West that Western countries could supply weapons to anybody). Both the US and Russia have a similar number of nuclear warheads positioned on missiles or located at bases with operational forces. China has only 24. The global number of nuclear warheads in stockpiles is 9,585 as of January, with Russia accounting for over 4,000, the US for close to 4,000.

Meanwhile in Havana a fleet of Russian warships, including a nuclear-powered submarine (not the same thing as a submarine armed with nuclear weapons), left port today after a five-day visit to Cuba following planned military drills in the Atlantic Ocean. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Biden administration officials said last week that they were monitoring the vessels and confirmed that they did not pose a threat to the region or indicate a transfer of missiles. The Russian ships had arrived at the port after they conducted military drills in the Atlantic Ocean, simulating a missile attack on targets that could be more than 600 kilometers (375 miles) away. Cuban officials were irritated by the decision of the US to dock a submarine, the USS Helena, at its Guantanamo Bay Naval Base in Cuba.

Swiss War Conference

The so-called Peace Conference in OBBÜRGEN, Switzerland over the weekend was thought by many to have been primarily an initiative by Zelensiky, with the assistance of non-neutral Switzerland, to buttress the perceived legitimacy of an illegitimate President and to provide support for his maximalist negotiating position. This calls for a complete withdrawal of Russia to 1991 borders, along with payments by Russia of reparations, the prosecution of senior Kremlin leaders for war crimes, amongst other things. Yet of 10 points that constituted Zelenskiy’s peace demands, only three were discussed at the conference and the choice of even these, and the language in which they were couched, were one-sided in favor of Ukraine.

Of the 180 countries invited, only 92 attended. Only about half of U.N. member countries took part. A minority of the world’s population was represented by the countries that signed the communique. Absentees included Russia, which was not invited, totally undermining the credibility of the proceedings. Other absentees included China. The presidents of some large countries such as the USA and India did not attend. 14 of those countries that did attend, declined to sign the final conference communique.

The majority of the 78 countries that signed the communique were European or European institutions. Some that did sign the communique had already expressed their disquiet over the direction that the collective West was taking in the NATO-provoked proxy conflict between NATO and Russia over Ukraine; some doubtless feared that if they did not attend or if they did not sign they would suffer recriminations from Washington and Brussels. None of the BRICS countries signed the communique. India, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand and the United Arab Emeriates were among those who did not sign. Brazil was merely an “observer,” so did not sign. The only Middle Eastern country that signed was Qatar.

The communique called for the “territorial integrity” (a contentious concept) of Ukraine to be the basis for any peace agreement. The topics focused on nuclear safety (no mention of Ukraine’s bombing of the Zapporizhzhia nuclear power plant); food security (no mention of how that been exacerbated by the resistance from Polish and Romanian farmers to Ukrainian food exports) and the exchange of prisoners (no mention of Ukraine’s shooting down of a plane full of Ukrainian POWs due to have been exchanged).

A second peace summit has been canvassed. According to the Kiev Post, “Switzerland has not ruled out that a new “peace summit” will be held before November of this year, when the presidential elections in the United States will begin and nobody will have no time for Zelensky. This was stated by Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis, adding that he sees no problems with Vladimir Putin’s participation in the conference, despite the order of the International Criminal Court (ICC).” All of this is clearly a non-starter: Russia has already spelt out its conditions for peace; Russia will not find Switzerland a suitable location for talks; and the idea that the conference would need to take place in time for the US presidential elections suggests both that the conflict needs to be resolved at the convenience of US domestic politics and that any resolution is at the mercy of a change in the governing party of the USA.

The Swiss Peace Conference might better be described as the Swiss War Conference, its main outcome being to further clarify division of the world into two camps, and the determination of the “liberal authoritarian” class of Europe to further progress what the Prime Minister of Poland made clear was the ultimate objective namely, the “decolonization” of Russia, which is collective Western code for the disintegration of the Federation into small, powerless satrapies of Western financial capital.

The Battlefields

Short of men, Ukraine has recently recruited 2750 prisoners for the combat lines. Ukraine is also reported to be increasingly concerned by the rate at which prices for arms are rising - five or six-fold since the start of the Russian SMO. The British Sunday Times reports that Ukraine is increasingly forced to buy weapons from intermediaries which adds to inflationary pressure. While the notion of Ukraine having to “buy” anything within a context of Western largesse in its depleting of Western armouries in favor of Ukraine is faintly absurd, but clearly, economic laws continue to work: increased demand leads to higher prices. Higher prices in turn stimulate greater supply, but this is a slow process in the armaments industry, captained as it is by very privileged insider monopolies often benefitting from limited competition.

The situation on the battlefields appears less than sterling for Russia. Ukrainian counterattacks on the settlement of Hlyboke that Russia seized within the first few days of its invasion of Kharkiv a month ago continue to contain the Russian presence and are, indeed, threatening it with entrapment by the movement of Ukrainian troops from a Ukrainian held territory to the West of Hlyboke to the north of Hlyboke. Russians say they have repelled Ukrainian attacks from the north.

The situation in Lyptsi, which Russia did not manage to capture in the original invasion, are also less than promising, with a significant Ukrainian counter-attack on Russian forces north of the settlement expected within the next few days. In Vovchansk, Russia has been struggling in the north eastern sector of the city, above the Volcha river. The Military Summary Channel today confirms that Russian forces did indeed manage to capture the Aggregate Plant in the industrial zone back in May, and that holding the Aggregate Plant is key to control of the three major supply routes into the northern sector. However for several weeks, Russian troops at the plant were encircled by Ukrainian fire-power. Russia maintained supplies to the men in the plant by means of drone. More recently, Russian troops have driven a hole through Ukrainian defenses so as to be better able to supply Russian troops in the Aggregate plant with provisions carried in on personnel carriers and perhaps even with tanks. Ukraine says that Russia has only around 50 men in the plant.

But the conflict for Vovchansk remains very much in the balance. Russia says that it has encircled Urkranian troops in the Citadel area a little north of the Aggregate plant. To the east ov Vovchansk, Ukraine has retaken the settlement of Tykhe and will likely attempt to force entry from Tyke back into northeast Vovchansk, taking control over one the main supply roads in that direction.

Elsewhere, I would say that a pattern of very slow Russian advance in the other major locations of combat is being maintained. In Kupyansk, Russian forces have entered the settlement of Pishchane from Berestove, are advancing on Verkhnokamaimske, and storming the village of Rozdolivka, having control of 15-20% of that settlement, including the railway station. In Chasiv Yar the action continues as it has now for many weeks or months, mainly concentrated in the eastern microdistrict east of the Kanal. In Avdiivka area Russian forces appear to be moving in the direction of Vozdvyzhenke, south of Novooleksandrivka, using Novooleksandrivka as a nodal point for advances, eventually, that would establish a Russian outer circle comprising Baranivk, Yelyzavetivka, Ivanka, Prohres, and Yevhenivka. Russian forces are enlarging the area they control around Sokil. They are bombing the town of Kalivka. In Krasnnohoriivka the battle for the north west, now going on for several months, never seems to end. Russia claims to control 95% of the high rise section of this enclave and continues to try to push remaining Ukrainian forces out in a northwesterly direction. In the Vuhledar area Russia seems to be aiming to establish a swathe of Russian territory that would form a circle comprising Solodke (R), Vodiane, Vuhledar, Pavlivka (R), Mykilske (R) and Volodymyrivka (R). Russia is claiming to have captured the quarry area north of Volodymyrivka.

As I suggested at the beginning of this section, the situation along the combat lines does not seem as promising as maybe it did a few weeks ago. This may because Russia is actually and unintentionally losing; it may be another manifestation of attritional warfare whereby Russia maintains only modest superiority against Ukrainian forces, so as further draw them forward and to further debilitate the weaker side; it may be a reflection also of more conservative offensive tactics that are designed to reduce the loss of Russian lives; it may represent an operational pause of some kind until the world has had a chance to digest the Putin peace plan issued last week. In this latter connection, it is interesting that the New York Times has published a version of the draft peace agreement reached in Istanbul in March to April 2022 - at the time and prior to NATO sabotage, was 70-80% on the way to consensus (although the published version does not show all Ukrainian concessions made then that now might embarrass Kiev). This could indicate that the New York Times, on behalf of the US Department of State, has finally caught up with the narrative and wishes to nudge policy makers in Washington and Kiev in the direction of using Istanbul (not 1991!) as the starting point for a meaningful peace process.