State of Affairs Along the Three Fronts of Defense of US Hegemony

Ukraine Battlefields

A new Russian offensive in Zapporizhzhia is taking Russian forces well north of Pryiutne (west of Urozhaine) in Russian breakthroughs towards Rivnopil, Novodarivka, and Makerovka (which is north of Urozhaine).

One objective is to cut the T05 10 road that is a supply route for Velyka Novosilka to the east (north of Blahodotne), while Russian forces from Russian-held Shakhtarske are threatening another supply route to Velyka Novoskilka, the T05 18, with the possibility of creating a new cauldron for Ukrainian forces to the east.

To the north, Russia is bombing all villages along the line between Yelyzevetrivka in the east to Zelenivka to the west. North of that, Russian forces have occupied about 50% of the settlement of Dalnie, with the prospect that Russia will be able to establish a line between Dalnie and Antonivka, creating a further new cauldron for Ukrainian forces east of that line.

All this is happening just south of Kurakhove, on the southern bank of the Kurakhove reservoir. Russian forces have penetrated eastern Kurakhove. On the northern bank, Russian forces are taking, or have taken, Novoselydivka, Voznesenka and Illinka. At the western end of the reservoir severe battle-caused flooding is making life more difficult still for Ukrainian forces as these seek to exit from Berestky on the northern bank in the direction of Shevchenko to the west. To the northwest, and west of Russian-held Selydove, Russian forces are advancing on Petrivka and Yurivka, moving south of Novooleksinovka, FPV droning Zhovte and putting ever greater pressure on Pokrovsk.

Further north, Russian forces control most of the Toretsk conurbation; maintain pressure on Chasiv Yar and now striking with missiles the Cherevkovka area in the southeast of the important city of Sloviansk, north west of Bakhmut.

South of Kupyansk, Russian forces make further progress in taking control of the highway between Yampolivka and Terny, while north of Kupyansk, Russian forces have secured control of Kolisnykivka on the Oskil river, providing a strong foothold for moves further northward.

In the Kursk area there is heavy fighting in the western end of that area that is still controlled by Ukrainian forces east of Snagost, around Nikolyevo-Darino, Darino and Nizhniy Klin, up to Malaya Loknya in the north and then down, on the eastern side, in the direction of Martynovka, Guyevo and Russian-held Borki. Ukraine continues to hold Kasachya Loknya. Russian forces are surrounding Ukrainian around Ptyokhovo, west of Borki, and, west of Ptyokhovo they have attacked Yanakivka. In short, the area controlled by Ukraine is very much smaller now than at the peak of the Ukrainian assault on Kursk, and is likely to be further and further constricted.

West Asia

Lebanon

Israel is expanding its aggression in Lebanon. The Economist (Economist) reports that Israel is increasingly operating in parts of Lebanon which are not widely populated by Shias, who are most likely to support Hizbullah. Israel may be trying to inflame Lebanon’s long-standing sectarian divisions to foment political change and to get a new president in place who might push back against the Shia group and be more friendly to the West.

Lebanese worry that Israel’s war aims in their country now go far beyond the immediate destruction of Hizbullah’s fighting capabilities near the border.

“Across Lebanon’s various religious sects people speak of a creeping “Gazafication” of the war. They say that Israel’s campaign, which had been more targeted than in Gaza, is widening. They fear that the killing of civilians as “collateral damage” is becoming widespread and accepted. According to Lebanon’s health ministry, almost 3,000 people have died since October 2023 (it does not specify how many were civilians). Satellite imagery and video footage from the south show whole villages being destroyed by Israel’s forces”.

Syria

Israel and the US are expanding their war into Syria. For Antiwar.com, David DeCamp reports that the US military this week launched multiple strikes against “Iranian-aligned” targets in Syria, referring to Shia militias that are allied with Iran, allegedly in retaliation for attacks on its personnel in the region, although there have been no recent reports of any attacks that have damaged US bases or harmed US troops. There were nine targets in two locations that the US military claimed were associated with Iranian groups in Syria.

Also for Antiwar.com, Jason Ditz reports that Israeli airstrikes struck a distribution center for humanitarian aid in the village of Shinshar on the highway between Homs and Damascus. Pro-Israeli social media insist the site or the trucks that were hit were somehow in league with Iran and/or Hezbollah. Shinshar is a relatively small Sunni village, so it wouldn’t make much sense, says Ditz, for Shi’ite Hezbollah to set up a military site there. This is the seventh Israeli airstrike in Syria since the start of November. Yesterday Israel attacked apartment buildings in the Damascus suburb of Sayeda Zeinab, killing at least nine civilians and wounding 20 others.

AP reports today that Israel has begun a construction project along the so-called Alpha Line that separates the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from Syria, and thst Israeli troops have entered the demilitarized zone during the work in violation of the cease-fire rules governing the area. It appears to be a buffer zone along the Gaza Strip’s frontier with Israel. The Israel military also has begun demolishing villages in Lebanon, where United Nations peacekeepers have come under fire.

“While Israel hasn’t acknowledged the construction, it sent a 71-page letter in June to the U.N. outlining what it described as “Syrian violations of the Alpha Line and armed presence in the area of separation (that) occur daily.” The letter cited numerous Israeli-alleged violations by Syrian civilians crossing the line”.

Palestine

For Fanack.com Erik Prins (Prins), provides an assessment of the damage wrought on the economy of Palestine by Israel’s war.

The Palestinian economy has always been characterised by stagnant GDP per capita and persistent high unemployment, driven more by donor aid than by sustainable development.

Now, the destruction of the agricultural sector has dealt a devastating blow. Israeli forces continue to systematically target Gaza’s agricultural areas, bulldozing fields, orchards, and livestock farms, resulting in a level of destruction not seen in over a century. More than 75% of Gaza’s agricultural land has been destroyed so far.

In the past, Gaza’s agricultural sector has contributed approximately 11% to the Palestinian GDP (2022). That same year, agricultural exports accounted for 55% of Gaza’s total exports, valued at $32.8 million. Key products such as tomatoes and cucumbers made up a substantial portion of these exports, collectively worth $16.1 million. Longstanding Israeli-imposed restrictions on trade, movement, and access on both the West Bank and Gaza have played a major role in stifling economic growth.

“These constraints have left the Palestinian economy heavily reliant on external aid and under significant control of the Israeli government. Key sectors, such as manufacturing and agriculture, have seen a troubling decline in recent years. The share of manufacturing and agriculture in Palestine’s GDP has dropped while investment rates remain low”.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is minimal compared to other economies in the region. Additionally, private savings rates have been largely negative. Restrictions on movement and access to Area C alone are estimated to have reduced GDP by around 35 percent. There has been a 74 percent reduction in GDP due to Israeli restrictions in recent years. Without these political and security constraints, GDP per capita could have been 37-130 percent higher.

“Since the outbreak of the war on Gaza on October 7, 2023, economic indicators have further worsened in the West Bank, while in Gaza the economy collapsed. While prior to October 7, a growth of 3 per cent had been estimated, the GDP of the combined territories declined by 6.2% percent in 2023, driven by heightened movement restrictions, diminished trade, loss of income from jobs in Israel, and substantial infrastructure destruction, particularly in Gaza.

“The revocation of work permits for over 170,000 Palestinians employed in Israel and a steep reduction in clearance revenue transfers from the Israeli government have exacerbated fiscal pressures.

“Israel has also intensified land-use restrictions and limited water access, while allowing increased settler violence and settlement expansion. This has further fragmented the West Bank, stifling any hope for growth. Meanwhile, Gaza’s economy has come to a complete halt, leaving the region in a state of economic paralysis.

In the West Bank, the PA relies heavily on clearance revenues—customs duties collected by Israel—which make up 68 per cent of its budget. However, since November 2023, Israel has increased its deductions from these revenues, cutting an additional $75 million each month, further squeezing the PA’s already strained finances.

In 2022, the Palestinian Authority (PA) faced a $682 million budget deficit, despite receiving $243 million in international donor support. By 2024, aid had decreased even further, potentially widening the PA’s financing gap to as much as $1.2 billion.

To stay afloat, the PA has turned to bank loans, now totalling $2.5 billion, and delayed payments to private sector suppliers and pension funds. Public sector workers have only received 80% of their salaries since late 2021, adding $800 million in unpaid wages. One in four private sector employees in the West Bank—about 144,000 jobs—have been laid off, causing unemployment to skyrocket from 13% in the third quarter of 2023 to 32% by the fourth quarter. The closure of the Israeli labour market to Palestinians, which previously employed 150,000-200,000 workers, has been particularly impactful. As many Palestinians relied on their work in Israel, it was a critical pillar of the West Bank economy. Over 80% of Palestinian workers lost their jobs, contributing to a 32% decline in Palestinian GDP so far…

In Gaza, the widespread destruction of infrastructure and the displacement of millions have nearly wiped out all economic production in the region. By early 2024, between 80% and 96% of Gaza’s agricultural assets—such as irrigation systems, livestock farms, orchards, and machinery—had been destroyed, according to data collected by IPSOS. This has crippled food production, worsening already severe levels of food insecurity.

Furthermore, the private sector has been gravely impacted, with 82% of businesses and 83% of retail facilities damaged or destroyed, including supermarkets, grocers, and bakeries. The ongoing conflict continues to erode Gaza’s economic foundation, leaving little hope for recovery in the near future.

Gaza’s GDP experienced an unprecedented collapse, plunging by 81% in the last quarter of 2023, from approximately US$670 million to roughly US$90 in less than four months. For 2023, this resulted in a 22% contraction. By mid-2024, Gaza’s economy had shrunk to less than one-sixth of its 2022 size, according to a World Bank report.

The World Bank estimates that the destruction of critical infrastructure, including electricity systems, would require nearly US$280 million in repairs or replacements. The Palestinian Electricity and Natural Resources Authority (PENRA) and Gaza Electricity Distribution Company (GEDCO) reported that targeted strikes have rendered much of Gaza’s electricity equipment irreparable, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.

Gaza’s water and sanitation infrastructure is in a similar detrimental state. Israeli military attacks have severely damaged key sites, resulting in an 84% reduction in water production. In Gaza City, 88% of water wells and all desalination plants have been damaged or destroyed, leaving the population with almost no clean water access.In addition, external water supplies from Israel’s national water company, Mekorot, have dropped by 78%.

Sewage systems have also been decimated, with 70% of Gaza’s sewage pumps and all wastewater treatment plants destroyed. This has led to severe public health consequences, with 26% of Gaza’s population now suffering from preventable diseases due to the lack of clean water and sanitation.

Beyond the infrastructure, the human toll is immense. Approximately 1.2 million people have been left homeless, and 62% of residential buildings have sustained damage. Homes have been levelled, with 141,000 completely destroyed and 70,300 severely damaged. The UN Shelter Cluster estimates that 1.7 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) now reside in Gaza, making up nearly 75% of the population.

Public infrastructure, including roads, has been devastated, with 62% of all roads damaged or destroyed, significantly hampering transportation and relief efforts. Primary roads are the most affected, with 92% sustaining damage and nearly 60% completely unusable. This destruction of fixed assets and the lack of accessibility due to the ongoing assault has further paralyzed Gaza’s already fragile economy and worsened living conditions for its population”.

The Saudi Factor

For Mint Press News, Robert Inlakesh (Inlakesh) raises some anxiety that neither Saudi Arabia’s membership of the BRICS nor its recent rapprochement with Israel will bring succor to Palestine. Negotiations may still be underway between Riyadh and Washington toward securing a U.S.-Saudi security agreement before President Biden’s term concludes. Progress had been delayed by the events of October 7th 2023. The U.S.-Saudi agreement was part of a sweeping strategy encompassing the entire West Asia region. There was speculation in 2022 that such an alliance could include Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other U.S.-aligned Arab nations—all working in tandem with Israel and the United States to counterbalance Iran’s Axis of Resistance. The alliance would have required normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Saudi Arabia has recently emphasized that establishing a Palestinian state is a prerequisite for any normalization agreement with Israel. Two other areas of difficuly for the alliance would be Saudi’s insistence on a nuclear power program and worry that the alliance might upend Saudi Arabia’s truce with the Houthis.

China

Taiwan

The Financial Times has reported that Taiwan is considering a $15 billion military package to impress Trump that it is “serious about strengthening its own defense,” further suggesting that in order to purchase US “protection,” client states must buy US weapons. The FT claims that Taiwan "would probably" request Lockheed Martin vessels and Northrop Grumman's E-2D Advanced Hawkeye, an airborne radar system. It also wants more Patriot missiles and may request F-35 fighter jets. According to Global Times, Some media outlets in Taiwan, such as ET Today, likened such an arms deal to paying "protection fee" to the US. The US Department of Defense has previously approved arms sales worth nearly $2 billion to Taiwan.

Philippines

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, speaking after a meeting with Australian counterpart Richard Marles, claimed today that the Philippines is a "victim of Chinese aggression.” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian responded that it was the Philippines who had undertaken provocative action and that China had to take necessary measures in accordance with law to safeguard its rights and interests. The Philippines has recently enacted the Philippine Maritime Zones (PMZ) Act and the Philippine Archipelagic Sea Lanes (PASL) Act attempting to solidify what China regards as the illegal ruling of the 2016 arbitration case through domestic legislation, including China's Huangyan Dao (also known as Huangyan Island) and most of the islands and reefs in the Nansha Islands and their related waters in its maritime zones.

Europe

Meanwhile, Germany's junior economy minister Udo Philipp is scheduled to visit Taiwan this week for talks with local officials and a visit to a TSMC chip factory. China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian has noted in response that there is only one China in the world, and Taiwan is an inseparable part of Chinese territory.

Climate

Writing on IPS, Norwegian diplomat Erik Solheim (Solheim) notes that as anti-environmentalist Donald Trump takes power in the US and UN climate talks are held in Baku, Azerbaijan, US carbon emissions are 8 times those of the Chinese, and 25 times those of India, and that 2024 promises to be the hottest year since the 1200s. Yet Trump will withdraw the US from the Paris agreement, and perhaps even from the UN Climate Convention.

In contrast, China, India and Europe lead on climate.

“Last year China contributed 2/3 of all global renewable energy. It produced 60% or more of everything green – electric cars, buses and batteries, solar panels and wind mills, hydropower and high speed rail. China is also the world´s largest tree planter, by far. India is aiming for 500 gigawatt of solar, wind and hydro by 2030. Prime minister Modi is launching «green missions» for India by the day, for instance a program for ten million homes with solar panels. Indian states like Gujarat have massive green ambitions. Indonesia, the second largest rain forest nation, has drastically reduced deforestation. Brazil is following. Europe was once the climate leader, even if it is now surpassed by Asia. The Green New Deal brings green development to Europe”.

Fortunately, even if the US federal government is an enemy in the battle to save the planet, powerful US states including California and New York will probably fight Trump tooth and nail.

“The economy of California alone is among the ten biggest in the world. Business is leading the charge, not the government. No major US business saluted when Trump last time took US out of Paris agreement. US business see opportunities for profits and jobs in climate action The efforts of the US tech industry to source green power for its data center is more important than most government programs”.

“Business will be lukewarm to Trump´s desire to curb US climate action. He has portrayed the shift to electric cars as a «win for Beijing». The opposite is obviously the case. If Detroit doesnt start turning out electic cars, China will capture the entire global market. The Chinese domestic car market is already bigger then the American, and its electric. Buses, scooters and taxis, half of all new cars in China, are now electric”.