Silence Before the Deluge
Gilbert Doctorow earlier today reports on an FBI raid on the home of dual US-Russian citizen Dimitry Simes who is anchorman for the influential Russian televison show, The Great Game. This follows the recent FBI assault on the home of Scott Ritter who has now lost his passport, the manuscript for his latest book, and materials that go back as far as the WMD hoax ahead of the illegal US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. Doctorow mentions some similar harrassment that has afflicted former CIA analyst and major antiwar spokesperson, Larry Johnson, but does not provide details. Further, Doctorow claims that since Thursday Judge Napolitano has been unable to load new interviews to YouTube for his Judging Freedom channel. I also note, by the way, the unusual absence of a midday report from the Military Summary channel. I will shortly summarize the key points that are included in Dima’s early morning report of August 17th (California time).
Doctorow mentions the 12-ATACMS Ukrainian attack on Crimea yesterday (all intercepted by Russia, according to the Russian MoD) of which at least some were targeted at the Crimean Bridge. He comments, as did I earlier this week, on the US promise of delivery of JASSM missiles to Ukraine, noting that there are in fact two versions, one with 450km range, the other with a 900 km range. I believe, but cannot be certain, that at this stage we are talking about the shorter-range version. But Doctorow counsels that previous experience suggests that when the US says it is going to make such a delivery it means that the weapons have already been delivered and perhaps being put to use in combat. The significance of these missiles, which I had missed, is that they can be fitted to F-16s, allowing F-16s to fire these missiles from within Ukrainian borders. Doctorow is clearly worried that Russia will resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons to destroy F-16s prior to takeoff from either Moldova or Romania, although I don’t see why tactical nukes would be needed in preference to, say, Iskanders.
Russia’s Iskander missiles, Dima informed us first thing today, have been very successful in allowing Russia to take out an IRIS-T air defense system and radar near Myropillia in Sumy; to destroy two Patriot systems, one radar and one control unit at Zholobok near Novoviazivske; to destroy a Ukrainian Su-24 at Aviatorske near Dnipro where it would have been employed for a further attack on Crimea; to destroy a Patriot missile battery (2 launchers and 1 radar) south of Liubymivksa, near Dnipro.
Dima claims that these recent hits have enabled Russia to restore air superiority over Ukraine. This had been dented in recent weeks by newly installed air defense systems gifted by the West. But as combat intensified in Kursk and Pokrovsk, Ukraine was obliged to redeploy air defense systems closer to the combat lines and, in doing so, revealed its positions.
In Kursk the situation continues overall to be much as I reported in my recent posts namely, a stalled Ukrainian advance. But it is a bit more complex than that. Three further Ukrainian assaults, mostly involving fairly small numbers, have occurred against Korenevo to the northwest of Sudzha (all repelled). A Ukrainian attempt to break through at Troitskoye was also repelled. Ukraine has continued to try to encircle Sudzha, north and south, via Russkoye, Porechnoye and Kositsa.
The primary target to the west continues to be Glushkovo, where Ukraine recently destroyed a supply bridge over the river Seym. But Russia is in the process of installing possibly dozens of pontoon bridges to compensate. Everything to the south of the river Seym is vulnerable to Ukrainian expansion.
In the direction north of Sudzha, there is a concentration of Ukrainian forces west of Pogrebki which Russia continues to attack. In an easterly direction, Ukraine continues to assault Russkoe Porechnoc and to use that as a base for an attack southwest (an assault that has been repelled). In a southeasterly direction, Ukraine has taken the village of Borki. An assault in the direction of Ulanok has been repelled.
In other parts of the combat lines, Russia is about to fully capture Niu-York and Toretsk. 80% of Pivnichne has fallen to the Russians, along with the Severnaya mine and terrikon. Russia has taken control of Zalizne and an electrical substation in that area. Russia has entered the high-rise area of eastern Toretsk. Only 2.5 kms separate Russian positions in Niu York to Russian positions in Pivdenne, creating a cauldron for Ukrainian forces trapped inside around Nelipivka.
Around Pokrovsk, Russia has taken control or is in the process of taking control over a wide semi-circle of settlements including Hrodivka, Ivanivka, Vesele, Zhyravka, Zhelanne, Novozhelanne, Zavitne, Mykolaivka, Serhiivka, Orlivka and the main road between Pokrovsk and Karlivka via Selydove. Russia has widened its control over the T0-24 highway that connects Marinka to Vuhledar.