Shrinking Europe

Major Takeaways from the Alexander Mercouris broadcast for January 19, 2023.(Mercouris 01.19.2023)

The Shrinking Union

I was particularly struck by a citation in this broadcast of an article by Mathew Lynn in Britain’s conservative Daily Telegraph to the effect that whereas in 1980 what was then the EEC accounted for 30% of global GDP today the successor entity, the EU, which is now several countries’ larger, accounts for only 15% of the global economy. One of the key benefits of its membership was the heft it wielded on account of its negotiating power and trade strength. The single market was so huge nobody could afford to ignore it.

But even as it has grown, the EU has diminished in significance and relevance, particularly with the growth of the US and Chinese economies in that period. A reflection of this is how Davos is fading in its global power. Europe’s leaders, who grew up in the community’s best, most vigorous years, have likely failed to adjust to the new, shrinking reality of the EU, its fall in relevance, even as they fail to grasp the growing likelihood the fractures within the alliance that are caused precisely by slavish adherence to bad policies. These include the “must help Ukraine at any cost” policy, which so far has steered the community towards recession and energy crisis while the US reaps the rewards in LNG exports. There is also the “whatever damage the US does to us, we must put up with it - as in the Inflation Reduction Act which subsidizes US companies at the expense of European (the subject of some acrimony at Davos, where Scholtz talked of the real possibility of a trade war between the EU and US), or in the blowing up of Nord Stream One, owned by Germany and Russia, which is exactly what Biden threatened the US would do before the Russian SMO in February 2022, even though the result is that it seals for the forseeable future the possibility that the EU might decide to turn away from expensive US LNG and back to cheap Russian oil and gas.

This is a continent whose leaders have lost a sense of where the continent’s self-interests really lie, their judgment clouded - perhaps by the bribery of European elites by the US, certainly by brainwashing through pervasive neocon ideology that soaks every nook and crevise of the mainstream media landscape. It is a continent that has not adjusted to the reality of its own shrinking significance, whose elites do not really understand the crisis of living standards that now afflicts the majority of their citizen-subjects, and which has no inspiring sense of its own future other than more subservience to continuing abuse and disrespect by their erstwhile “savior,” the USA.

Just possibly, EU leaders are beginning to reveal a little more backbone, as in the position seemingly adopted by German Chancellor Scholz, who is reportedly telling Biden that Germany will not allow the sending of Leopard II tanks from German arsenals or from those of any of Germany’s allies unless the US agrees to send Abrams tanks. A monthly meeting of NATO defense ministers later this week will put enormous pressure on the Germans to conform. Poland is threatening to send Leopard II tanks regardless of what Germany says. This is par for the course: Germany usually rolls over in face of pressure. This is even in the face of increasing complaints from German Generals about the entire NATO policy. One such critic was chairman of the NATO-Russia council and who now berates the policy and is opposed to delivery of Leopard 2s.

The Battlefields

Russia’s founder of the Wagner Group, Prigozhin, has claimed Wagner’s capture of Kleshcheyevka. This lies between Opidnoye which sits astride the main road leading into Bakhmut from the south, and Kleshcheyevka, which lies close to Ivanovka which sits astride another main road leading into Bakhmut, from the west. Russia now controls Opidnoye and Kleshcheyevka and there is fighting going on in Ivanovka itself. If Ivanovka falls, then all the main roads leading into Bakhmut will have been captured, and there will be an emerging cauldron or boiler in which Ukraine’s troops in Bakhmut will be trapped, able only to surrender or die. Russia also now controls Soledar to the north east of Bakhmut and has broken into Kresniagora and the road that runs from Solidar and Seversk. Despite the presence of a huge Ukrainian force in this area.

Fighting continues along all the front lines. Ukraine has mounted a strong counter-attack in the Cupiansk area, and is contesting Novamikhailovka. Ukraine is mounting some kind of offensive around Vuhledar. The Donetsk People’s Repuboic claims its troops have taken a settlement close to Donetsk City, and are advancing ever closer to Adviika. There have been air alerts all over Ukraine in the morning of January 19 suggesting another Russian missile/drone attack. Many Ukrainian sources are suggesting that General Zaluzhnyi has advised Zelenskiy to pull out of Seversk because it is “undefendable” and that if Ukrainian troops are not pulled out they may be trapped in a boiler.

Putin meanwhile has said that GDP sanctions on Russia have accounted for only 2.3% decline in GDP in 2022 and he said that every part of the economy was coming back on stream in Russia’s favor. Lavrov has said that the currenct conflict is comparable to similar conflicts in the past in which Russia turned out victor, and that the start of the conflict in Ukraine should be counted as 2014, not 2022. He didnt see any prospects for negotiation at the present time. The Russian prime minister has said there is now a deadline, by which Russian military in the conflict zone must be supplied all the equipment, etc., that they need by February, suggesting a major Russian offensive is planned for February. Russian and Belarussian sources say that the build up of forces there is merely to defend againt strikes on Belarus from other geopolitical zones. On the issue of the downing of the Ukrainian helicopter the other day killing fourteen senior executives of the Ukrainian Security ministry: there is a great deal of uncertainty. But why were so many senior ministry executives present on the one helicopter? Pilot error or a Russian missile, or a Ukrainian missile? One cannot exclude the possibility of an assassination. But whatever the explanation, the tragedy will likely have no infuence on the overall situation.