Sharp Extension of Risk in Approaching World War Three

In this quick alert you should know that the rhetoric between Israel and Hezbollah grew even more tense during Wednesday June 19th. Hezbollah’s leader has threatened to extend the war to Cyprus because it allows Israel to use Cyprus waters for exercises in preparation for an Israeli invasion of Lebanon. If this comes about it raises the question as to how the Turkish controlled or pro-Turkish half of Cyprus will position itself, and of how or whether Greece will also become involved Turkey is a somewhat grumpy member of NATO that seeks to balance this against fairly warm but rocky relations with Russia which will likely side with Iran, Lebanon and Syria in support of Hezbollah which, in addition to being a militia, is a form of social security for southern Lebanese. But Turkey and Greece are ancient and contemporary enemies, and Greek involvement might cement Turkish involvement in turn and perhaps induce Turkish dumping of NATO in favor of the BRICS. Involvement of Greece is involvement of NATO in a two-front war that European NATO can barely afford and barely survive.

Putin was today in Hanoi. Hanoi’s major trading partner is China and Vietnam would like to strengthen relations with Russia, whose weapons helped Vietnam win the war against the US in 1975, while it is also trying to preserve the pro-US turn in Vietnamese foreign policy of recent years.

Note that until July 5th my posts will at times become more erratic than usual. I appreciate your patience!