(Revised:) Counter-Productive Escalations
Kiev is lobbying Washington for the green light to fire ATACMS missiles on military targets across Russia. In other words, within a week or so of Biden saying that such attacks could only be launched against targets close to the border in the Kharkiv borderlands, Ukraine wants more. Why does Ukraine want more? Apparently because of Russian designs on Kharkiv city. But Russia has never said it wants to take Kharkiv. It has been stalled temporarily in Lyptsi and Vovchansk, and, yes, has been bombing Kharkiv city in an effort to cut supply chains to the border, and is also reported to have struck at a military hospital). Russia believes that Kharkiv is now the source of Ukrainian attacks on Belgorod. But so far as taking Kharkiv is concerned, Russia has said only that for the time being it wants to establish a 10 mile buffer zone. The numbers of troops in Russia’s first borderlands invasion was around 15,000 men and has since risen to 25,000, still far too few to take a city the size of Kharkiv. Russia has also warned, however, that in the event that Ukraine fires long range missiles into Russia then it will need to expand the buffer zone.
So Ukraine is asking the US to undertake the precise action that Russia says will require Russia to take more territory.The ATACMS have a range of up to about 300 kilometers. But Russia,along the eastern combat lines, already has acquired around 150 kilometers of territory. So for the HIMARS launchers that fire ATACMS (one at a time), to achieve the kind of depth of range that is desired, they will need to be located as close as possible to the combat line. This will make them more detectable and more vulnerable to destruction by Russian missiles. The closer they are to the combat line the more easily they can be taken out by cheap Russian drones or simple missiles.
Russian FAB3000 bombs, meanwhile, will be coming into the battlefield in steadily growing numbers with a main view to blasting through Ukrainian fortifications, especially in those areas where such fortifications are notably robust as in Chasiv Yar (soon to be penetrated from the north, east and south). The FAB3000s are delivered from Su-34s. Only two have been adjusted for this purpose so far but ultimately we can anticipate that a good proportion of the entire fleet of Su-34s (over 150) will accommodate FABs.
Ukraine has been intensifying its drone attacks on Russian oil facilities; while Russia has been striking at Ukraine’s energy systems including, most recently, electricity sub stations. This has degraded about 60% of the nation’s power supply. This cannot not have a grave impact on Ukraine’s military effectiveness. Ukraine’s drone storms may have the benefit to Ukraine of forcing Russia to expose its air defense systems (as Ukraine exposed and lost many of its own air defense systems in responding to earlier Russian missile strikes; but Russia’s growing reliance on electronic warfare and on simpler defense systems such as artillery cannon reduce that danger.