Regime Change War and Propaganda

High Altitude Nuclear Attack

In a recent article for Global Research, Paul Craig Roberts cites a recent book by Steven Starr - Nuclear High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse - that he says shows that all it takes is one nuclear explosion to shut down the United States.

“The electric power grid would be destroyed along with the communications system, the cooling systems at nuclear power plants and all electronic devices. The reason is that civilian infrastructure is not protected from Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP). The military has taken steps to shield its weapon and communication systems, but nothing has been done to protect civilian infrastructure. Bills mandating EMP protection have been defeated in Congress.  

Yet only 4% of the US military budget would be required to shield the power grid and civilian infrastructure. The blast and fire effects of a ground level detonation might not result, at least not so readily, but the consequences of a high-altitude nuclear detonation would be just as dire. (I also wonder if the same would apply if a nuclear missile was to be shot down over and close to US territory by US air defense).

A high-altitude nuclear detonation would instead create a gigantic electromagnetic pulse or EMP. This would cause massive voltages and currents to form within power lines, telecommunication lines, cables, wires, antennas, and any other electrically conductive material found beneath the nuclear detonation in a circular area covering hundreds of thousands of square miles.

“Unshielded electronic devices within ground, air, and sea transportation systems, water and sanitation systems, fuel and food distribution systems, water and sanitation systems, telecommunication systems, and banking systems would all be simultaneously knocked out of service – and all these systems would be disabled until the solid-state electronics required to operate them could be repaired or replaced.

“The E1 wave will also instantly destroy millions of glass insulators found on 15 kilovolt-class electric power distribution lines. 78% of all electricity in the US is delivered to end users (residential, agricultural, commercial) through these 15 kV power lines. The loss of a single insulator on a line can knock out power distribution on the entire line”.

…“The loss of Large Power Transformers and Extra High Voltage Circuit Breakers would mean that entire regions within the United States would be left without electric power for up to a year or longer.”

There would also be reactor core meltdowns at dozens of nuclear power plants.

Iran-Israel

While there is still much that is unknown, it does still seem to be the case that the damage inflicted by Israel on Iran in the most recent Israeli attack (yesterday) is relatively containable, and has caused very little disruption to normal life in Iran. I have few further details that I consider it essential to discuss at the moment. It does also seem to be the case that Iranian air defenses worked with only questionable efficiency as a number of Israeli missiles did penetrate Iranian air space and did hit their targets. That the hits appear to have included two important military bases would suggest that these bases were indeed inadequately protected.

That Iranian early warning radars located in Syria were also reportedly hit presumably leaves Iran without adequate forewarning of incoming missiles, conventional or nuclear. We should note reports (1) that not only did Israel provide advance warning to the US and but that it also provided advance warning to Iran and (2) more importantly, there was advance warning to Iran from Russia.

Several months ago, damage caused by Ukrainian/NATO drones to Russia’s early warning radar systems were believed to have limited Russian forewarning, precisely, of attacks on Iran. The likelihood therefore is that the damage caused to Russia’s early warning radar has long since been repaired, and that Iranian radars can be similarly repaired or replaced, at speed.

The use solely of air-to-ground missiles as opposed to bombers was an indication of one of the ways in which the attack was scaled down in response both to US concerns and also to the leak of US intelligence about the original Israeli attack plans. It is not clear whether this may have obviated the necessity, as I said yesterday, of US-provided refuelling aircraft. In his broadcast yesterday, Alex Mercouris refers to reports ahead of the Israeli attack of a significant redeployment of refuelling aircraft from the US to the Middle East.

Further, there are already US-supplied and/or US-financed refuelling aircraft in Israel. For example, in fall 2022 there was an order for a fleet of additional air-to-air refueling aircraft for the Israel Air Force. These Boeing KC-46’s, however, were not scheduled to arrive in 2025 at the earliest. The deal was expected to cost Israel nearly $1 billion, with funds coming from military aid that Washington provides to Jerusalem. Earlier this year, the US Department of Defense said it was building aircraft facilities in Israel to accommodate American-made refueling tanker planes. But it is clear from other sources that the Isrsaeli air force has long had a aereal refuelling capability.

North Koreans in Russia

There is still considerable skepticism about the story of there being somewhere between 3,000 and 12,000 North Korean troops in Russia (one variant has it at 12,000 in Russia in total, but 3,000 of those being deployed for the recovery from invading Ukrainians of Sudja in Russia’s Kursk).

Given the recent Duma ratification of a Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the Russian Federation and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, originally signed by Putin last June, it would not be especially surprising to see closer cooperation between the two countries in military affairs.

Reports of the presence of North Korean troops emanate principally from Ukrainian sources. Putin himself declined to comment on the issue of troops when asked about this in Kazan.

It is quite clear to me that even if the Ukrainian reports are true, the presence of North Koreans (something that also occurred during the Cold War) is inconsequential for the inevitable Russian success on the battlefield where today Russia has secured all of Selydove, hastening the fall of nearby Pokrovsk and thus enhancing a rapid movement by Russia to the Dnieper, which, further south in Zapporizhzhia, Russia is alresdy fast approaching.

First of all, as Dima of the Military Summary Channel has indicated, the North Koreans would be used on Russian, not Ukrainain territory, and probably not on the territory of the Donbass that Russia has integrated within the Federation. Secondly, the numbers, even at 12,000 are very insignificant given the 800,000+ Russian troops engaged in the war in Ukraine.

True or false, the story provides propaganda fodder to a Ukrainian regime that is desperate to provoke the West into providing more NATO forces on the ground. The fact that NATO forces and mercenaries (it is not always easy to tell the difference) have been on the ground, albeit in comparatively small numbers, for the past two years or more, exposes the performance of Keivan panic at the “threat” of North Korea as pure war propaganda.

Georgia Edges East

In Georgia the governing Georgian Dream Party (founded by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili) has won 54% of the vote. The party has held power for twelve years.

This will inevitably lead to NED regime-change style violent protests from the opposition. Two groups within the country’s splintered opposition said that they did not recognize the results as legitimate and called for protests. A similar situation in 2020 was followed by an opposition boycott of the parliament for five months.

The New York Times reports that the country’s opposition, divided into four main political forces, had claimed victory before preliminary results of exit polls were announced (a standard ploy of NED-style regime-change tactics, designed to provoke public anger at what is then presented as a fraudulent election result) .

A new mandate may give the Dream Party sufficient leverage to crack down further on what it says and to an extent doubtless are, pro-Western and Western-supported pro regime-change NGOs.

The United States had sought (election interference?) to undermine Georgian Dream by suspending $95 million in assistance to Georgia’s government and the EU had suspended Georgia’s potential accession to the bloc.

Georgian Dream blames the opposition for for provoking Georgia’s five-day war with Russia in 2008 by invading pro-Russian South Ossetia which had broken away from Georgia in the 1990s.

A long article in Jacobin by Bryan Gigantino provides some very useful background (see Gigantino). Towards his conclusion Gigantino discusses the impact of the arrival of a large number of Russians at the start of the SMO:

“In 2022, tens of thousands of Russian citizens went to Georgia. Some did so for political reasons, opposing the war or evading conscription, while others wanted to protect their incomes as the specter of sanctions loomed. Many have since returned to Russia or gone on to other countries. Moscow welcomed the exodus, as the more politically minded would not be capable of opposing the war effort at home.

“Georgian Dream also welcomed the influx, as thousands of people spending money made elsewhere was a much needed post-COVID economic stimulus. Many worked remotely in the tech sector. Daily direct flights now go from Georgia to cities across Russia. Tourism became a year-round enterprise. Many new businesses opened. A certain class of Georgian citizens, concentrated in Tbilisi and Batumi especially, benefitted. Rent prices skyrocketed, and construction boomed.

“Yet this also exacerbated already stark inequalities. New avenues for profit may have opened for business owners and landlords, but a cost-of-living crisis and high inflation squeezed the paltry incomes of most Georgian citizens. Relative to average Georgian salaries, Russian incomes were much higher, and this had consequences. To make matters worse, years of market orthodoxy meant minimum wage and rent control — basic policies that could have mitigated the shock of the Russian influx — not only did not exist but were politically impossible to argue for.

“Despite notable ups, downs, and crises, Russian citizens have enjoyed years of economic growth. Russia’s expanding middle and upper-middle classes, especially in Moscow and St Petersburg, have no corollary in Georgia. The Russian economy is far larger, home to many crucial raw materials, and is not entirely deindustrialized. Added to that are the effects of Russia’s economic transformation since 2022, embracing a form of “war Keynesianism” that has increased incomes overall. As historically, close economic ties with Russia stimulated, however unequally, growth in Georgia. Yet capital comes with caveats — many Russians could easily open businesses and enjoy a more expensive lifestyle out of reach of most Georgians. This sowed understandable resentment.

“Some protested the influx, demanding the government impose a visa regime. Others castigated the more frequent use of the Russian language in public places. The government claimed such views were xenophobic. But at its core, the Russian influx is emblematic of Georgia’s difficult position. Russia, a deeply neoliberal economy, had still become a globalized and wealthier country with a sizable middle class, despite not being a liberal democracy. The implicit economic argument of EU integration — that Western supported democratization is a precondition to economic growth — starkly confronted Georgian reality. Years of political submission to the West could not guarantee Georgia a tangible exit from its post-Soviet peripheralization. This has left the country searching for answers”.