Polarization (2)

Consolidation of Russo-Chinese Partnership

Most important development is a statement from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army of support for Russia in the interests of international justice, which further implies that Zelenskiy’s Swiss “peace conference” is dead in the water in the absence of Russia and China. Saudi Arabia is the latest country to indicate its unwillingness to attend the conference and may host an alternative peace conference in Saudi Arabia (although it is unlikely that Ukraine, under the illegitimate leadership of Zelenskiy, would join this). There is some doubt as to whether India will attend: most likely neither the President nor the foreign minister will attend, but that some more junior representative may be dispatched. While China protests its commitment to neutrality on Ukraine, it is outspokenly critical of Zelensky and Zelenskiy’s attempts to cozy up to the Philippines in opposition to China, to solidify a pro-American anti-Chinese bloc among Asian powers. Zelensky has described China as a “tool in Putin’s hands,” probably an indication that in real terms, relations between China and Ukraine are broken, and an anticipation of Chinese refusal to recognize Zelenskiy as a legitimate leader of Ukraine. (Zelenskiy’s legal office has announced that there is “no need” to investigate Zelenskiy’s legitimacy. Of course, if such a “need” was identified and that new elections were necessary, Zelensky would lose them). In addition, China’s Defense Minister has made a furious condemnation of US meddling by means of arms sales in Taiwan for the purpose of instigating independence. Further, a statement has been issued by Xi Jinping in support of Palestinian statehood. These different statements should be seen as a coordinated warning to Washington that it’s three pronged counterrevolution against multipolarity is doomed to failure.

There is a process of polarization between the collective West and its allies and those of the Russo-Chinese and BRICS alliances. The BRICS include, of course, Russia, China, India, Brazil, South Africa, and Saudi Arabia. Close to Russia and China are some countries of Asia including North Korea, EurAsia (including Iran and Afghanistan), several South American countries including Brazil itself, Colombia, Venezuela and Cuba and many African countries including those of the Sahel. On the side of the collective West we have the former East European powers other than Hungary and Slovakia, and, in Asia, Japan and the Philippines (nothing less tasteful than the sight of former colonies sucking up to their oppressors). It wil be interesting to watch how countries currently on the fence, such as Pakistan, Indonesia, Turkey, Thailand and Algeria will, in the end, line up, if they do. Australia and New Zealand remain very solidly tied to the collective West.

The Question of Western Weapons

As noted in my post of last Friday, Russia has a disadvantage, one of few, in its nuclear status vis-a-vis the USA, and that has to do with the (in)capability of its radar system in detecting the launch of nuclear missiles against it and tracing their trajectory up to the point at which they enter into the “net” that is captured by their network of any one or more of their ten early warning radar systems (two of which have been recently targeted by “Ukrainian” drones). The USA has a more sophisticated satellite surveillance system for this purpose.

Russia may have only eight minutes of early warning of an incoming ICBM to decide its response, an interval of time so short that it is likely that the response will be in the form of AI activation. Now, in addition to this shortcoming that has been highlighted by MIT expert Theodore Postol, is a problem identifed in a broadcast three days ago by Mark Sleboda, a largely pro-Moscow and Moscow-based correspondent and analyst which is that western missiles that Ukraine may be permitted to fire deep into Russia can carry nuclear warheads, and that Russian radar is unable to distinguish them from rockets with a conventional payload. Russia has very high motivation therefore to destroy launchers (and at the point of launch) of sophisticated Western missiles such as ATACMS, Storm Shadows and Scalps. We have the same problem with F-16s.

In short, the Western has moved towards (more use) of sophisticated missiles into Russian territory and Russian sources indicate that they regard this threat (inseparable, in their eyes, from a nuclear threat - see Sleboda above) as an existential matter. None the less, Larry Johnson, currently visiting Saint Petersburg, opines that Russia has far better air defenses than the US and most of Europe. The danger of “no consequences,” of Western intervention in Russia, Johnson told Napolitano earlier today, “are over.” Russia is consistently open to negotiation (even if the West doesn’t like what it understands to be its conditions) but the West, suffering from a narcissistic disorder, simply doesn’t want to talk to Russia. The rest of the world, says Johnson, is getting sick and tired of being bullied by the US. In other words, this will not end well for the collective West.

Russia meanwhile has intensified its regular missile and drone attacks across Ukraine targeting, amongst other things, hydro power plants in the Zapporizhzhia area, other energy facilities and air defense systems. There are also indications of more intense Ukrainian attacks on Belgorod, with increasing use of HIMARS, following Biden’s green lighting of Ukrainian use of US missiles against Russian targets inside the pre-2014 borders of the Russian Federation. I anticipate many more Russian civilian casualties will result.

Evidence of continuing collective Western escalation comes in the form of large numbers of Abrams tanks spotted in Germany on route to Ukraine, and large numbers of Polish RT-91 tanks on the border with Ukraine. France has now sent in two detachments to Ukraine. (100 NATO officers lost their lives in a recent Russian strike on a training camp near Lvov). Germany has given Ukraine permission to use German-supplied Patriot systems for attacking missiles flying over Russian territory.

Isabel Van Brugen reported for Newsweek on Thursday May 30 that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has warned the West over the planned delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine from Belgium this year. He said that this would be perceived in Moscow as a “signal action” by NATO in the nuclear sphere.” Belgium and Ukraine signed a security agreement last week that includes supplying a total of 30 F-16s to Ukraine between the end of 2024 and 2028. Norway and Denmark have made comparable commitments. The Belgium prime minister, De Croo, has claimed that the jets are only to be used within Ukrainian territory (presumably referring to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders). Lavrov warned that these aircraft would be destroyed, “like other types of weapons supplied by NATO countries to Ukraine.” Lavrov referred to Russian-Belarusian drills on the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons that are underway, saying that he hoped that these would knock some sense into NATO.

Significant Russian Reverses Reported

On the battlefields, Russia launched a long-anticipated invasion from the nothern border towards Sumy. Its concentration of forces on the Russian side of the border came under significant attack, and a leading convoy sent towards Sumy was destroyed by Ukrainian reconnaissance and FPV drones. (I note that Alexander Mercouris this morning is skeptical about the convoy story because he does not think an incursion would have taken place during daylight hours). Ukrainian counterattacks are recovering territory near Lyptsi, Hlybike, Lukiantsi, northern Vovchansk (where Ukrainian forces still resist in the Citadel area and industrial zone) and north of Kharkiv generally. It is anticipated by Dima on the Military Summary channel that both armies will be in offensive mode over the coming days. There is considerable evidence of Russian concentration of more forces and more equipment to the border area and the same applies to Ukraine. New Russian weapons here include the wheeled 152mm self-propelled “Malva” gun 2543 which is fast, mobile and has long range.

Once again, I notice that Alexander Mercouris is skeptical about the significance of some of these Ukrainian counterattacks given the relative dearth, he claims, of video and photo evidence. He concludes that it is “more than likely” that Russia has beaten back Ukrainian counterattacks. Mercouris rarely says anything unfavorable to Russia. I am inclined to give greater weight to Dima’s assessment.

There is increasing use by Ukraine of HIMARS rockets, both on Belgorod, regularly, and yesterday on the village of Shchebekino on Russian territory where Ukraine claims to have hit an ammo warehouse whereas others say it was just a regular building.

There had already been evidence of Russian forces withdrawing from the Lyptsi area earlier in the weekend positions moving back up to the border but this may have been a feint prior to the alleged incursion on Sumy. Ukraine had recovered part of the village of Starytsia.

Other Battlefields

A major area of combat activity is unfolding (once again) around Kupyansk, with significant Russian bombing and shelling over a wide area to the west of Pischanne, as far west as settlements such as Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, Petropavlivka, Podoly, Kutcherivka, Kurylivka. A bridge was destroyed (one of many in this area) at Sadove. Likewise, many warehouses. Russian forces are repordedly still in the process of trying to take Stelmakhiivka, Miasozharivka (which has previously been reported as in Russian control), and Andriivka (not to be confused with the settlement of that name southwest of Bakhmut). Russia has entered the settlement of Novoegorovka in Svetovsky direction around Novoiehorivka.

Similarly, the same is true further south in the Siversk area where Russian bombing and shelling in the direction of Vyimka is intense and Russian forces are reportedly within 2.7 kilometers of the first buildings of Vyimka. Russian Lancet drones have struck targets in Svato-Pokrovske, south of Siversk. Already, Russia appears increasingly to be in fire control of the area between Spirne, Ivaro-Dariivka and Vyimka. Russian forces are now within at least eight kilometers of Siversk itself and have been destroying self-propelled guns of the UAF inside Siversk.

In Chasiv Yar latest reports appear to confirm that Russian forces have crossed the Siversky-Donets canal (some people call it an aqueduct: there is a surprising lack of photographic support to be sure whether it is a canal or an aqueduct) both in the north and in the south, greatly increasing pressure on the main town of Chasiv Yar. I notice that the New York Times is beginning to discuss the significance of a fall of Chasiv Yar. Russian forces have broken through Ukraine’s defense belt in Kalynivka to the north which now looks to be entirely under Russian control and from there Russian forces have crossed the canal. In addition, Russia is said to be in control of 40% of the eastern microdistrict of Chasiv Yar. To the south Russia is in control of a line that runs from Ivanivske through Andriivka, Zelenopillia, Kurimivke, and Ozarianivke, as well as much of the territory between these settlements and the canal, if they have not already crossed the canal south of Chasiv Yar opposite the German forest. A very similar story is unfolding in the Krasnohorivka area all the way west towards Dalnie and Romanivka and Russian drones are striking at targets in Zhelanne Druhe. West of Novomykhailivka, Russia is still expelling Ukrainian forces from Paraskovievka, is advancing on Kostyantynivka, and firing further west on Ukrainian positions in Katerynivka, while Russian forces are also moving further in the direction of Vodiane from Solodke.

A fall of Chasiv Yar, which I consider inevitable, will have significantly negative implications for Ukraine further south in Kostyantynivka, Vodiane and Vuhledar.

In the Avdiivka area there is continual, very slow, expansion of Russian control around Ocheretyne, with Russian forces now said to have reached the outskirts of the settlements of Novooleksandrivka to the northwest and Sokil to the southwest. Russian forces are reported to have entered Sokil. To the south, Russian forces have secured more territory around Netailove and to have entered the eastern end of Karlivka to the west, and to be approaching the settlement of Nevelske.

North of Staramaiorske Russia is subjecting Velyka Novosilka to heavy bombing and artillery strikes. A number of bridges have been destroyed. Russia is acquiring more territory east of Robotyne. Further west, Russia is appears to be preparing an advance on Stepnohirsk.

Palestine

Meanwhile we await a response from Hamas to what Biden has described as a new offer involving a 6 weeks ceasefire during which there can be negotiations towards a full ceasefire and release of all hostages. Israel is saying that the deal proposed by Biden (in the name of Israel) is a non-starter. But on Sunday there were signs of it being taken a bit more seriously as there were also on the Hamas side. I am skeptical. Given that the International Court of Justice has issued a second demand for an immediate and permanent ceasefire and withdrawal of Israeli forces, there may be more reason to hope for grudging Israeli cooperation. In the meantime, Israel is trying to persuade the world that the ICJ didnt really mean that Israel had to stop genocide, it only meant that it had to stop genocide in the event that genocide is proven. Jonathan Cook takes the Guardian to task for giving this nonsense air to breathe: Israel’s claim, Cooks argues, that a single comma exempts Israel from having to immediately halt its genocide in Rafah should be ridiculed.

The argument came from Israel and the two judges at the ICJ — one an Israeli.

“The world is wrong to think that the ICJ has required Israel to halt its Rafah assault and any actions elsewhere in Gaza that are genocidal. Instead, a comma in the text qualifies the ruling to mean the court wants Israel to halt its actions in Rafah and elsewhere only if they are genocidal. Because Israel’s actions are not genocidal, the court is not, in fact, asking Israel to halt anything.”

That argument, says Cook “ is preposterous on its face. It would be a less forceful statement than its earlier January statement when the genocide was less advanced and, if it had any substance, would not have required the dissenters to dissent.

The ICJ is expected to make a final judgement soon on Israeli genocide. Would Hamas trust the Israelis to make serious progress towards a permanent ceasefire? US Congressional blatant support of Evil in issuing yet another invitation to Netanyahu to address Congress, married to the Administration’s incompetence as demonstrated in the recent breaking apart of its absurd “aid” pier off the coast of Israel, should not give anyone much confidence.

US Congressional Military Industrial Complex

In an article in the Tom Dispatch website today, David Vine and Theresa Arriola calculate total annual US military spending at around $1.5 trillion, calling this monstrously out of proportion to the few military threats facing the United States. They note that the Russian military’s annual budget is one tenth or less than the size of the U.S. budget and that China’s military is one-third to one-half its size. A large proportion of the money that the US congress spends goes to the five major weapons manufacturers, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon (RTX), Boeing, and General Dynamics. Their 900 Washington lobbyists use some of this money to lobby Congress for yet more money. They often justify these expenditures as “jobs creation” initiatives (which produce relatively few jobs), while also, of course, engaging in gross exaggeration of the “threats” posed by much smaller countries or countries that spend far less on war preparations. They make contributions (pay bribes) for political campaigns.

The result is that they lock the United States into endless wars that, since 2001, have killed an estimated 4.5 million, injured tens of millions more, displaced 38 million people or more, contributing to environmental harm and instigating a process of domestic militarization of the nation’s police. The system lends itself to legalized price gouging and fraud (e.g. as I noted in a recent post, the US spends several times more for each 155mm shell that it produces, than does Russia). The authors note that the “Pentagon is the only government agency that has never passed an audit.” Military spending is, in fact, now greater than at the height of any war since World War Two.

Even a modest dismantling of this hideous and unnecessary machinery of death would release hundreds of billions of dollars to improve the lives of ordinary citizens.