Panic On, Panic Off
The Battlefield
Dima leads with the Russia bombing of Ukrainian positions near Dachi in between Kherson and Oleshky. So following the obliteration of the Ukrainian foothold in Krynky, Russia has moved its attention back to the Kherson, Antonivka, Cleshky area.
Further east in Bradley Square area, Russian bombing of southern Robotyne indicates that Russian forces have been forced to retreat from the settlement one more time. In Novomykhailivka, it looks as though Ukrainian forces have been compelled to fall back further to the west of this settlement towards Kostiantynivka. Russia still has to take the high rise buildings in the center and the farms to the north. The Russian MoD talks of total Ukrainian losses in this area of over 1400 in the past day.
Russian control over the southern section of Krasnohorivka is confirmed. In Avdiivka are, Russia has still not been able to break through the main defense belt that begins with Ocheretyne passing through Stepove, Orlivka, Umanske and Karlivka. Just to hold this line, Ukraine is said to have lost 500 soldiers in just a few hours yesterday. Russia has fire control over Tonenke, although there are Ukrainian forces to the immediate west and northwest. Dima expects heavy clashes to the west of Berydichi and Stepove. This is an area in which Russia has been destroying one or more Abrams tanks which they wish to extract as trophies. Ukraian counterattacks on Russian positions in Lasochtyne and Orlivka have intensified the fighting in this region in the past few hours. MI6 is reporting a build up of Russian missiles in this area of Avdiivka in preparation for the launch of a major offensive in June. I personally think that we have learned enough abut Russian tactics that we will be kept guessing up until the last moment as to which point any major Russian offensive is going to come.
There has been a transfer of Russian aircraft to Chasiv Yar area near Bakhmut for Russian bombing of the settlement with FAVs, where for the next two months Russia will concentrated on Chasiv Yar and Ivanivske (where Russia has taken half of the settlement) at which point the supposed major offensive near Avdiivka will take place. In Lyman area, Russia has reached and is in the process of taking Terny. Russian forces have also demolished Kyslivka ner Kotliarivka. On the northern border Russia has attacked Ukrainian sabotage forces in the area of Vovchansk to Kozacha Lopan.
In the wake of the failure of Ukrainian’s mobilization, Ukraine is introducing monetary incentives to soldiers for the destruction of specific varieties of Russian equipment. Dima suspects this money will go into the pockets of senior commanders. Ukraine continues to try to conscript forces by violent means. Some Western countries are talking of sending “non-combatant” forces into Ukraine with a view to policing the northern border regions (particularly along the Belarussian border) and releasing Ukrainians for the combat lines; there would also be a similar Western force policing Odessa to prevent Russian forces penetrating this area from the north. Today, large scale NATO exercises involving some 20,000 NATO forces begin in Finland, and these also involve Swedish partners
Panic
Seasoned commentators are given to declaring that panic now reigns among the leadership or establishment classes of Europe, occasioned by Russia’s military successes in Avdiivka, Bakmut and Odessa and by the failure of the USA to restore its familiar level of support . I am not so sure. If there was panic anywhere, I would expect to see it in the behaviors of Ukrainian soldiers in the field. But despite many stories of refusals to obey orders, protests at not being rotated and so on, these continue to push back and, in many ways to demonstrate remarkable resilience. Zelenskiy must be one of the least-liked human beings on earth but he is still there, still in place, still confidently directing his country into and through the gates of hell, at somebody’s bidding we dont know whose.
Resilience and confidence are aided and abetted by the practice of doubling-down on past mistakes. If you think a past mistake can be resolved by continuing to do whatever it was that led you to make that mistake, you are likely running of time. I dont see panic, I see doubling-down and more egregious indications of certainty in oneself and one’s tribe even in the face of alarming shortages of arms and ammunition. Desperate times are seen to call for desperate measures -attempts to steal frozen Russian reserves, talk of putting boots on the ground in Ukraine, populating Ukraine with NATO “peace-keepers,” responding to Russian nuclear superiority with ever more provocations to Russia to use them. The obduracy of Israel is every day more shunted into the foreground as a hellish model for Western obduracy.
Elites dont panic, they congeal. What we need is panic.