Out of Reserves, Money and Time

Ukraine

Kyrylo Budanov, 38 years old head of GUR (Ukraine’s military intelligence), told the New York Times yesterday that Ukraine is essentially out of reserves. Short of men, short of weapons, essentially. Blinken is in Kiev,- to do what, exactly? More money does not conjure up either men or weapons in the countries of NATO that lack either the demographics or, at least, populations of convinced warriors, and that do not have or have recklessly dismantled, industrial infrastructures that could deliver on ambitious expansion of weapons production capability.

Blinken will likely be preoccupied by the need to either construct a narrative as to how it is possible to give the appearance of legitimacy to a professional comedian whose presidency will have expired by the end of next week and who cannot bring himself to call for elections that he would surely lose, or to somehow remove Zelinskiy (and perhaps provide someone with whom Russia could conceivably negotiate).

It looks like some of the remaining forces, almost all recent recruits, in the area of Russia’s advance on Kharkiv, are surrendering. It is said that ony 20% of Ukraine’s fighting forces are really committed to the war. Why would they want to fight in an army that is being pulled apart in recriminations between Budanov, Syrsky, and Zelenskiy, in an area of the country that is being ravaged both by war and by fire, for a conflict in which money for fortifications is clearly diverted into the hands of corrupt contractors and senior officers. How otherwise to explain the lack of preparation for one of the most predicted offensives in military history? When the US and Europe give this money to Ukraine they must know that much of it goes straight into these pockets, the pockets of the corrupt, the desperate and the ideological fanatics.

The collective West, just as it is complicit in the atrocious genocide by Israel of Palestinians in Gaza (over 100,000 dead and wounded), is also complicit in the even more scandalous loss of Ukrainian life (well over 500,000 to date, dead and wounded) in a war that cannot be won, should never, ever have been provoked (given the essential triviality of the Ukraine coup regime’s original goal to become a member of NATO, a goal in which relatively few Ukrainians were originally interested back in 2014, and which NATO even now will not, cannot, grant, not after ten years of warfare and preparation for war).

Ukraine’s difficulty right now is that at a time when it is short of men, air defense and other weapons, Russia has considerably extended the combat line, in an offensive, while predictable and predicted, Ukraine was insufficiently prepared for or, in as much as it was prepared for, involved the construction of fortifications that were weak and in the wrong places, and depended far too much on irregular proxy “Russian volunteer” forces answerable to a freakish Ukrainian intelligence chief.

Now, in addition, it is widely suspected that Russia is planning an operation on Sumy to the west which of course will stretch scarce Ukrainian forces even further. Ukraine is attempting to handle the crisis by moving up reinforcements from brigades stationed either in the combat zones or along the Belarus border. These brigades are largely tired, have in many cases suffered defeats, and have been embarrassed by disaffections and surrenders, or have been cobbled together from previous groups in what must be less than efficient, incoherent units, or are dependent on recent recruits, lacking combat experience. Air defenses in this area have largely been degraded by Russian attacks; Ukraine tries to move in Gepard AD systems but these are also hit by Russia.

In the Sumy area, Ukraine is evacuating Vorozhba and Bilopillia, settlements close to the border in an area where a Russian offensive is very likely to emerge, north west of Sumy. Sumy was taken by Russia before, in its initial 2022 offensive, but was then given up to Ukraine later that year in Ukraine’s Kharkiv offensive to which Russia responded largely by smart and timely withdrawals, occasioning only relatively modest losses.

Russia has been invading the borderlands in waves of 50 men or so at a time, having so far consumed less than 10% of a force across the border that still numbers some 50,000 or more. This strategy appears to have worked very well in an area that has been poorly defended and in which there is only light resistance, leaving the bulk of the Russian force available for more ambitious action in the direction of Kharkiv, if that is what Russia is aiming to take, or a bid straight down to Kupyansk from Vovchansk.

In the Lyptsi area, east of Sumy, Russia now has complete control over Hlyboke; it has captured fields between Hlyboke and settlements further south; it has entered Lyptsi and is closing in on Slobozhsnske, from which it has artillery reach of Kharkiv, and is moving towards Cherkaski. Further east, Russisa looks to be in the process of taking control or has taken control of Lukiantsi; it has entered the village of Tesnova.

In the Vovchansk area, further to the east, Russia has acquired complete control over Buhruvatka and some of Starytsia, reaching the Donets river. It is taking territory on the flank of Starytsia. It has entered Vovchansk from the north and controls 90% of this northern section of the town, down to the Volche river. Russia is destroying many of the bridges, pontoon and more permanent structures, that cross the Volche and Donets rivers, in an effort to cut Ukrainian supplies into and evacuation of troops out of. It is occupying the immediate western flank of Vovchansk south of Hatyshche and its surrounding forest area; it is also attacking Vovchansk from the east, and bombing the center of the settlement.

Further south in the Kupyansk area, Russia continues with its assault towards Stelmakhivka in northern Kupyansk and towards Makiivka in southern Kupyansk. It continues putting pressure on various settlements in the Siversk area, notably in Bilohoriivka, while in Chasiv Yar, Russia has entered the eastern part of the settlement and is making crossings at those points of the Siverski-Donetsk Kanal where the water flows underground. Russia has retaken control (50% to 60%) of part of Klishchiivka and is consolidating control of the forest areas between Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Chasiv Yar. In the Avdiivka area, further Russian advances west begin to threaten the Ukrainian lines of defense west of Ocheretyne, Orlivka, Umanske, Netailove, Pervomaiske and Netelske. Further to the south, Russia’s threat to Krasnohoriivka (soon to fall completely to Russia) and Kostyantynivka (also bound to fall eventually) will also eventually bring down Vuhledar, and then to the west, Russia now controls (or re-controls) up to 80% of Staramaioske, and all of Robotyne.

Nordic Interventions

NATO’s weakness has been exposed at a time of its most ambitious expansion to incorporate Finland and Sweden and Nordic military operations that highlight NATO’s preparations to attack Russia from the north. A recent article by Jordan Shilton (Jordan Stilton) for the World Socialist Web Site addresses this paradox, which also has important implications for the imperial struggle for the Arctic and for a world ravaged by global warming even as melting ice creates new trade routes, new access to mineral wealth and new triggers for great power conflict.

This is an area in which NATO troops regularly exercise, in very large numbers. The recent Nordic Response exercise, formerly a Norwegian-hosted affair, has been expanded to include Sweden and Finland and included the first trial of a Joint Nordic Air Operations Command, involving air forces of Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden.

“Nordic Response was part of the larger Steadfast Defender mobilisation, a series of continuous military manoeuvres involving 90,000 NATO personnel that began in January and extends into June. The area of operations stretches from the Arctic through the Nordic and Baltic regions to Central Europe. In its first stage, the exercise involved the transportation of US military personnel across the Atlantic to support European NATO members in a war scenario. The next stage, which is now well advanced, involves the transit of American personnel from their landing sites along the Nordic coast eastwards towards the Russian border.”

In the months leading up to the latest major NATO manoeuvres, the has US concluded a series of bilateral agreements with the Nordic countries to secure unrestricted access to dozens of military facilities within striking distance of the Russian border. In 47 “Agreed areas” of operation across the four countries, each associated with a military base or training ground, US soldiers can operate freely and have the power to exercise authority over civilians.

NATO’s new Vision 2030 strategy for its Nordic powers talks of over 250 fighter planes and 350,000 soldiers. It claims that Finland can mobilise over a quarter of a million soldiers rapidly and has some 900,000 members in the military reserve.

China

I have argued here on several occasions that the NATO war with Russia over the pretext of Ukraine is part of a multipronged Washington-led counterrevolution whose purpose is to push back the forces of multipolarity (whose institutional presence is best represented in the BRICS alliance and, to a lesser extent, in the UN General Assembley) and to preserve US hegemony or, rather, the hegemony of the US and its most important vasssals. These I would list, primarily, as Germany, France, Britain, Japan and Australia, some of whom (like Germany) the US suppresses - even with the complicity of locl elites, whose class investments in this alliance with the Hegemon is fundamental to their survival. Both President Scholz of Germany and Prime Minister Sunak of Great Britain have recently exposed their prostrate submission to Washington in false claims that Russia unilaterally deprived Europe of Russian oil and gas. Quite the contrary. European action and US sabotage led to this rupture. Even as Europe furtively continues to depend on Russian sources, at great expense, through LNG imports and imports of what was originally Russian oil and gas that have been Russia-washed by third party nations such as India.

Having spent fabulous taxpayer treasure on Ukraine to no effect, the collective West continues to double down in its absurd conflict, with Germany, Britain and France persisting in the supply of weapons to Ukraine which they can ill afford and at the expense of their own security. Germany is now talking about reintroducing conscription, while European leaders mutter about attacking Russia or Russian missiles over Ukraine with long-range missile launchers on the borders of Poland and Romania (with or without their consent it seems; such a thing may violate Romanian law), almost certainly a trigger point for nuclear war with Russia.

The immediate and wholly impractical Western goal is destablization of Russia and regime change in Moscow. This is clearly not going to happen. Putin is not merely one of the most capable and most popular leaders that Russia has ever produced, standing head and shoulders above any European leadership that has been manifested since World War Two or any US leadership manifested since 1963. That was the year of the assassination of JFK by what plausibly seems to have been a US Deep State consipiracy in league with Israeli intelligence.

Events of the past few days indicate that Putin is working to ensure a strong line of transition after his departure to a government machine run by carefully-nurtured, highly competent successors.

Elsewhere in the region, the collective West struggles to bring about regime change, largely ineffectual, as in the case of Ukraine itself, by creating and funding what are often very violent, brainwashed young “pro-democracy” activists, as in Kazakhstan, and Georgia (where the “pro-democracy” activists are choking themselves up over a law that will simply require that foreign government-established “non government organizations” reveal their sources of funding).

In the case of the principal target of the collective West’s counterrevolution, China, the “pro-democracy” card is playing out in numerous locations including, of course, and most dangerously, Taiwan, but also Myanmar (which the West thought it had once captured with its proxy, Aung San Suu Kyi), Thailand (where the movement was spearheaded by billionaire Thanksin Shinawatra), Pacific Island nations and islands of the South China Sea. It is hardly surprising that Xi Jinping, in his recent visit to France, proved himself very resistant to insinuations or direct accusations that Russian success in NATO’s war with Russia over Ukraine is all somehow due to Russian-Chinese trade in hybrid goods