Oreshnik Days
Russia-Ukraine
Russia has issued an ultimatum to Kiev that unless it respects Russia’s Victory Day on May 9 and holds its fire for a two-day period from May 8 to May 9 then it will launch massive retaliatory action (described on Military Summary Channel as an oreshnik attack on central Kiev). As of May 4-5, 2026, Russia declared its unilateral two-day ceasefire for May 8-9, timed to its Victory Day celebrations. The Russian Ministry warned residents of Kyiv and foreign diplomats to leave the city. The main concern seems to be Moscow.
Zelenskiy has responded by saying it will only observe Russia’s ceasefire if Russia observes a ceasefire on the night of May 5‑6. Military Summary Channel opines that it is unlikely that Russia will pay any attention to Zelenskiy, that Zelenskiy will not therefore observe a ceasefire for May 8&9 and that there will be strong retaliatory action on Kiev. Putin has warned that civilians and foreign diplomats should leave the city if Ukraine's leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy ignores the demand.
Moscow is building up its air defenses with helicopters that can increase the proportion of Ukrainian drones that are shot down. It is also using helicopters along the Ukraine-Belarus border to help add navigational propulsion and direction to drones targeting assets located in Western Ukraine. Ukrainian drones are taking varied routes over international territory to reach their targets on the Russian mainland. Unless subjected to quick regulation and retaliation, this development of course has the potential of implicating further third-party nations in the conflict. Even pro-Russian commentator Scott Ritter yesterday told Judge Napolitano that the escalation in the use of Ukrainian drones (hundreds a day, not infrequently numbering more than the Russian drones launched against Ukraine) was an embarrassment to Moscow. Last night’s Russian attack on Ukraine also involved several iskander missiles.
Another source of embarrassment for Russia is the deteriorating situation in Mali where, following the death of Defense Minister Gen. Sadio Camara in a suicide bombing on April 25, Assimi Goïta has assumed the role of defense minister to consolidate power. Malian authorities are probing active-duty soldiers suspected of aiding the terrorist and separatist attacks that killed the defense minister, indicating serious internal betrayal. Rebel forces (FLA) have seized control of the northern city of Kidal and other strategic bases, including Tessalit, from Malian forces and their Russian mercenaries. Attacks have reached the outskirts of Bamako, with JNIM targeting Chinese company sites near the capital. A JNIM-imposed blockade has caused severe fuel shortages and paralyzed the capital. Attacks continue throughout the country, with reports of over 200 militants killed by the army in counter-operations, but security remains highly unstable. The U.S. Embassy in Bamako issued a security alert on May 5, 2026, advising staff to take extra precautions to and from the airport, while noting a shift to a slightly lower, yet still dangerous, posture following the initial April 25 attack.
The Gulf
Over the past 24 hours the Gulf has experienced a major escalation, with the US and Iran trading fire. In effect, the US on Sunday announced and yesterday launched a military-led operation - “Project Freedom” - to force open the [Strait of Hormuz], resulting in a direct clash with Iranian forces. The US military, under President Trump’s orders, commenced efforts to guide stranded commercial ships through the Strait. US CENTCOM claimed, but Iran denied that US Navy destroyers had successfully escorted two US-flagged vessels through the waterway, demonstrating a capacity to challenge Iran’s blockade US forces reported destroying six to eight small Iranian boats using Apache helicopters and naval gunfire during engagement in the Strait. The USS Abraham Lincoln is reported by CBS as actively conducting air operations and supporting the blockade of Iranian ports. US officials, including President Trump, have warned that any further, more damaging attacks on US assets will result in massive retaliation, trying to establish deterrence.
Despite US actions, Iran maintains significant, effective control over the bottleneck, with most commercial shipping still stalled and fearful of transit. Repots this morning speak of Iranian attacks approaching the Strait from the UAE. Iran, or its proxies (or, one should add, some third party in a false flag operation), launched drones and missiles at the UAE, setting an oil facility in Fujairah ablaze on Monday, marking a severe escalation and pressuring the US ally. An explosion was reported on a South Korean-operated ship in the strait, highlighting the risk to vessels defying Iran’s blockade. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) directly confronted the US-led convoy, with state media vowing that control over the waterway has only “intensified.”
The price of Brent crude today has moderated slightly from yesterday - at the time of writing this in the mid-morning, California time, of May 5, at around $110 a barrel. Markets seem uncertain whether to interpret US manouvers as indications of strong, assertive measures that will weaken Iranian control of the Gulf and allow more ships to pass safely, or as further symptoms of US vacillation and uncertainty amidst continuing Iranian resilience. The industry continues to find ingenious workarounds (notably on the Iran-Pak borders and across Saudi Arabia; note that Iran shares borders with Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, and Iraq), but the bottom line must be that these do not compensate for the loss in volume of commodities traded through the Strait, and add considerably to the cost of getting them to market.