Open Season for Silly Ideas from Europe
Saint Donald
Let me start off by by recommending we all go slow on proposing canonization of Donald Trump or, same thing really, a Nobel Peace Prize. Let us not repeat the mistake of the Obama era. Nothing tastes so sour as a Peace Prize delivered before Peace is achieved or, even worse, before the war intensifies. A peace prize awarded to a protagonist who is declared to have achieved peace in one part of the world while he is responsible for the unfolding of a monumental war crime in another is also to strongly discouraged.
A “Major Outbreak by March” (Lt. Col. Douglas Macgregor)
In West Asia, the mainstream focus is on Gaza, as though that is totally separate from the horror of Israel’s forced displacement of Palestinians within and eventually from the West Bank. Saint Donald, in his infinite compassion and charity, has indicated he may favor Israeli annexation of the West Bank, and has not only advocated the expuslion of Palestinians from Gaza but has also indicated he would not expect them to return. Nor in passing should we overlook Israeli’s continuing murder and subjugation of Syrian communities in southern Syria and Lebanese communities in southern Lebanon.
With respect to Gaza meanwhile, there is copious evidence of Israeli drooling for the breakdown of the ceasefire (Israel has murdered some 120 Palestinians since it started) even as Hamas prepares to release another six hostages this coming Saturday in return for the Israeli release of over 400 Palestinians. Israel declares itself in readiness for the forcible expulsion (or is it annihilation?) of Palestinians in Gaza so that Israel can hand over Gaza free and clear to the US for the US either to redevelop Gaza prior to the return (in 5, 10,15, 20 or more years?) of the exiled Palestinians or, as most realists fear and expert - to sell it to wealthy Israelis and friends of Trump and Jared Kushner. The presence of a party of mercenary US veteran special forces offers little comfort for honest brokering.
In the meantime, a small group of representatives of Arab League countries will be meeting this coming Friday in Riyadh in the hopes of putting together an Arab World plan for the redevelopment of Gaza without the expulsion of Palestinians. This it will put to a summit of the Arab League on March 4th.
The region is considered by some to be in tinder box condition because:
(1) Some Israeli Zionists, including Natanyahu, need a major destabilization against the ceasefire now, so that Israel can exploit Trump’s green light of a week or so ago, and start dropping US 2,000 pound bombs and worse on Palestinians and at the same time distract Israeli attention away from Netanyahu’s legal and personal problems;
(2) Many Zionist Israelis continue to believe that now would be an excellent time to strike Iran. This is a false presumption, others would say, in the light of the added security that Russia’s recent partnership agreement with Iran provides it. Isrsel also reckons on the relative weaknesses of Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas. Critics could claim, to the contrary, that Syrian weakness is as much a threat to Israel - in the form of a potential Turkish-HTS attack on Israeli positions around Mount Hemron - as it is an advantage, that Hezbollah and Hamas are reconstituting, and that Hamas, while it is not demanding to govern Gaza, is determined to maintain its presence there;
(3) Egypt is in a state of effective mobilization for war with Israel (an Egyptian general has warned of ‘only 12 hours to Tel Aviv’) in the event of a forced expulsion of Palestinians and violation of the Philadelphi Corridor;
(4) A coordinated Russian, Saudi Arabian, Turkish-Syrian, Iranian and Yemeni offensive on Israel is not inconceivable. Egypt is under considerable pressure from its own population which is strongly in support of protection for Palestinians. Also, as Macgregor pointed out earlier today in interview with Judge Napolitano, Egypt is worried about the presence on its Western flank of the forces of former CIA asset Hafter who contols the oil fields of eastern Libya, while, in the west of Libya, it is Erdogan and the Muslim Brotherhood that exert control over the UN-recognized government of Tripoli. In the south, Egypt is worried about the advanced development of a major dam project in Ethiopia that may reduce the flow of water down the Nile. These help explain Egypt’s resistance to US and Israeli pressure to take in the Palestinians.
An Education in Riyadh
So what can we conclude so far?
(1) The US and Russian negotiators in their meeting yesterday maintained a cordial relationship;
(2) They mainly talked about more talking;
(3) They appeared to undertake more immediate and concerted efforts to normalize diplomatic relations and banking relations;
(4) European leaders and Zelenskiy’s illegitimate “President” Zelenskiy were very distressed by the talks themselves and by the fact that they had not been included;
(5) European leaders and Zelenskiy behaved as though they wanted to put a stop to progess towards ending the war by coming up with all kinds of ideas that cannot possibly work, on which they themselves cannot even agree on, and which are wholly unacceptable either to Russia, or the US, or both, but which European leaders think will trap the US into staying in Europe and allow Europe to go on being a cossetted US vassal entity;
(6) Relations between Trump and Zelenskiy have soured considerably in the past 24 hours;
(7) Even as the US delegation learned from Russia that the probable cost to the US of US sanctions on Russia has been about $300 billion, and even as Trump has indicated an inclination to lift some or all US sanctions on Russia, sanctions which actually appear to have been a considerable boost to Russian independence and to its economic growth, Europe is in the process of trying to pass yet another sanctions package against Russia. (One wonders how far Russia actually still wants a lifting of US sanctions).
Silly Billy Ideas Contest
The European sanctions package, which has to be approved by the European Commission where it will almost certainy encounter opposition from at least Hungary and Slovakia (and possibly, by the time it arrives there, the Romanians, Czechs, Austrians and Germans - given the electoral trajectories of many European countries right now - is merely:
(1) One instance of the “silly billy ideas” reign of idiocy over Europe’s panicked reaction to the possibility of a US abandonment - as this current generation of misguided European leaders see it - of Ukraine and of Europe.
The doubling of electricity prices as the Balkans turns off electricity from Russia in favor of electricity from Europe symbolizes the whole ghastly debacle of European dignity.
The winning prize for silly billiness goes to Laurel and Hardy (= Keir Starmer for the UK, Emmanuel Macron for France) for their proposal to put up to 50,000 troops on Ukrainian soil as “peace-keepers.” Germany resolutely refused to be a silly billy on this, as did several other European countries. Italy was positively rude about it. Why, after all, would anyone sane person want to push forward this idea before the outcome of negotiations, or before there is any outcome whatsoever?
Even though the military preparedness of both countries is unimpressive, with European armories, missiles and artillery already drained by excessive supplies to Ukraine, their economies on a knife’s edge, the enthusiasm of their own military and their populations low to non-existent;
Even though Russia has made it patently clear that there are no circumstances in which it will accept European forces in Ukraine no matter what flag they are flying;
Even though the US has made it patently clear that it will not provide guarantees to any such force;
Even though Zelenskiy himself has said, first, that any satisfactory force would need to number 100,000 to 150,000 men, and, second, that a force without US security guarantees would be insufficient.
Other ideas in the silly billy domain include:
(2) Keir Starmer’s proposal to use the UK’s Royal Air Force, from bases in Poland, to patrol the skies above Ukraine, either instead of or as a complement to a UK force on the ground.
No RAF force can possibly compete against Russian. Poland would be highly unlikely to allow itself to be suckered into the operation, given Donald Tusk’s rejection already of Polish involvement in any ground force. Then:
(3) There is the idea of lowering the oil price cap on Russian oil exports (currently $60 a barrel) to around $40 a barrel with a view to putting what is thought to be a further dent in Russian profits from oil.
The silliness of this proposal virtually suggests itself. A lower oil cap, were it to work, would increase the supply of oil as producers attempt to make up for lost revenue, and gravely impact the sustainability of oil production everywhere, including in the US.
But the price cap does not work and is not going to work even if lowered. China and India have paid no attention to the original oil price cap. Russia has exported oil in all manner of competing ways, one of them involving the use of shipping fleets that do not buy insurance from Lloyd’s of London and that manage to evade recently imposed US sanctions.
Zelenskiy Row With Trump
Too much ink has been spilled in debate about whether Trump has recently accused Ukraine of “starting” the war with Russia. The fact is that for many months now, Trump has clearly indicated his considerable skepticism of the official Western narrative of a thoroughly “unprovoked” Russian invasion of Ukraine.
I believe Trump perfectly well understands that this was a war that was provoked and that it has been provoked over a couple of decades or more by the West and by NATO.
In singling out Zelenskiy as the culpable party Trump is of course being disingenuous, since Zelesnkiy, as Scott Ritter and others have argued, myself included, has been a tool of the West (perhaps even literally, a tool of Western Intelligence), a second-rate comedian who came to power promising peace but immediately embarked on a program of war, almost from the beginning pleading with the West to be given nuclear weapons.
Trump is perfectly correct to remind Zelenskiy that he, Zelenskiy, has had three years to resolve this problem. Of course Trump didn’t go into detail about how the West had always intended to make a mockery of the 2014-20915 Minsk agreements and that it was the West who pressured Zelenskiy to renege on a draft agreement with Russia - on terms far more favorable to Ukraine than anything it can now hope for - in Istanbul in March 2022.
Trump now treats Zelenskiy with the utmost disdain. This is demonstrated by his attempt to get Zelenskiy to sign off on an agreement that would give the US the right to mine (Zenenskiy says 50%, other sources say 100% of) Ukraine’s mineral wealth, apparently valued at $7 trillion, as payment for what Trump says is the $350 billion the US has already given Ukraine (possibly true, especially if the period of accounting goes back to 2014 or before) allowing for a further $150 billion, perhaps in the form of payment for future military support (this is unclear). No security guarantees were offered.
This has been rejected by Zelenskiy who still apparently sees some possibility for the use of Ukraine’s mineral wealth (already owned or controlled by Russia or by other third parties) to seduce Europe into giving it further military support even though Zelenskiy knows that the war is unwinnable without US support and was even unwinnable with US support.
Now Zelenskiy, in a media interview within the past 24 hours, is whining about how Russia wants to get rid of him (actually it is the US that wants to get rid of him even more - by forcing him to hold elections which will throw Zelenskiy out).
He claims he will hold on until Ukraine is in NATO and the EU, even though the first is now categorically ruled out by virtually all parties, other than Keir Starmer and even the second seems incredibly distant.
Zelenskiy claims, incredibly, to be trusted by 57% of Ukrainians and says that only 1% of Ukrainians are prepared to make any concessions to Russia. With equal lack of evidence he claims that Russia wants to attack Poland and Lithuania. He complains that the US is helping Russia to be less isolated, when in fact it is the entire collective West that has been isolated by this war from the rest of the world.
He says that Europe will continue to finance the war and is skeptical that the relationship between Trump and Putin can survive. Further penetrating a make-believe universe of wishful thinking, Zelenskiy goes on to claim that Ukraine is now better off than it was in the first year of the war, that it produces more weapons, trains more people and that its economy is picking up.
So how come Russia is winning the war on practically all fronts (today invading deep into the Sumy region and preparing to create a cauldron for the Ukrainian troops around Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk region)?
Trump in response to Zelenskiy mocks him for not knowing (or pretending not to know) what happened to at least $100 billion of US aid sent to Ukraine. Trump bashes Biden for not insisting on Europe taking on a burden at least the equivalent of that of the US. He calls Zelenskiy a dictator and charges him with wanting to keep the gravy train of aid going for as long as possible.
An important recent revelation discussed today by Dima of the Military Summary Channel is that in December 2024, the Biden administration in its dying days transitioned from a CIA entourage around Zelenskiy to an entourage made up of European intelligence (MI6 would have loomed large in this context) as one further way in which the Biden team tried to “Trump proof” the war, passing it to the control of Europe (just as Britain is now chairing the Munich Security Conference).