Onwards to Glorious NATO Annihilation!

Russia Missile Attack on Dnipro.

Reuters has confirmed that Ukraine has claimed that Russia fired a RS-26 Rubezh ballistic missile (ICBM) from Astrakhan, 700 miles from its target in the city of Dnipro on Thursday. Washington has denied it was an ICBM.

Reuters considers it may have been a non-space version of the R-26, used with heavy payload at a range of less than 5,500 km. Scott Ritter, in interview with Judge Napolitano today says that it may have been a new missile, the “Hazel," that appears to have six warheads, with each warhead carrying a sub-munition - with an overall impact, therefore, of 36 strikes on the principal target.

This appears to have been a US/UK missile production facility in the industrial area of Dnipro intended for the construction of the long-range missiles that NATO is proposing to fire at Russian targets when its present stocks, already very low (perhaps only 44 more ATACMS available, while the UK struggles to build new Storm Shadows by hand) are depleted.

The Russian attack on Dnipro follows the firing of up to 12 British Storm Shadow missiles on a command and control facility in a Russian village in Kursk, yesterday, which apparently killed Russian soldiers and civilians, although the control facility is said to be still functioning. Russia is preparing to charge the British personnel involved with murder since Britain is not officially at war with Russia.

The green light for the use of Storm Shadows was given by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer at a press conference on the fringes of the G20 meeting on November 18. Storm Shadows and their French version, Scalps, require US parts and up until now, to my knowledge, have not been used without Washington permission and may require US assistance in targetting.

The Storm Shadow attack followed an unsuccessful ATACMS attack on a military facility in Bryansk where six missiles were fired of which one apparently got through or was struck by air defense before it hit its target, leaving ATACMS debris on the ground. The ATACMS attack followed the news reported in the New York Times last weekend that the White House had green-lighted the use of long-range missiles against targets in Russia.

Exactly who gave the order and to whom is still unclear, to the best of my knowledge. There are indications that the Pentagon was not advised in advance. It is even unclear whether the outgoing US President (who only two months previously rejected the idea of such a green light for fear of starting World War Three) had any direct involvement in the matter.

The fact that ATACMS and, now Storm Shadows, have been fired so soon after the apparent “announcement” or “order” suggests that these attacks have been planned for weeks.

There is no evidence whatsoever that either the attack on Bryansk or the attack on Kursk is remotely connected to the supposed pretext for this latest NATO escalation namely, the fabled and unlikely presence of ten thousand North Korean troops who, even if they are in Russia would be there to push back Ukrainian invaders from Russian soil and entirely different matter than NATO forces in Ukraine attacking Russia. especially given that Ukraine is still not a member of NATO.

Are we witnessing, as Ritter suggests, a coup d’etat by people like Sullivan and Blinken. Or is it, more simply, a strategy by an outgoing administration to mess up an incoming administration, as Obama did to Trump in 2017 (Russiagate) and as Trump did to Biden in 2020 (US retreat from Afghanistan), and has happened in previous US presidential transitions.

While it is assumed by many commentators that Western escalation is the work of an angry, spiteful and defeated outgoing administration, there is also speculation that the strikes may have the approval of the incoming President Elect, Donald Trump, who may consider that these strikes will tilt the balance of probability that Russia will be more interested in negotiating with Trump once he is in office on the presumption that the US position will by then have been strengthened.

Vladimir Putin has said that Russia will respond immediately in mirrored reaction to further NATO escalations. Russian Sarmat ICBM missiles, of course, can be fired on the US, 18 cities at a time, with 2,000 kilaton strikes per city.

But the Biden administration and NATO leaders persuade themselves that Russia is bluffing.

Writing for World Socialist Web Site, Chris Marsden reported yesterday that UK Defence Secretary John Healey declared that the UK government’s commitment to stand with the Ukrainian people is absolute.

“We have stepped up with more military support, we have sped up deliveries, and we are now spending more on military aid as a country than ever before…The UK has stood side by side with our Ukrainian allies since day one of Putin’s illegal, full-scale invasion—leading international support, training 50,000 recruits and supplying weapons, drones and other crucial military kit.”

Marsden notes that the UK will contribute £7.5 million towards new attack and surveillance drones for Ukraine, alongside £16 million in contributions from other allies, including £10 million from Germany, bringing the total coalition fund to £67 million, with the UK providing £15 million overall.

Yet More Undemocratic British War Propaganda Shenanigans

For the Grayzone, Kit Klarenberg (Klarenberg) reports that top UK military figures conspired to carry out the Kerch bridge bombing, covertly train “Gladio”-style stay-behind forces in Ukraine, and groom the British public for a drop in living standards caused by the proxy war against Russia. They plotted to escalate and prolong the Ukraine proxy war “at all costs.” 

“Project Alchemy” was convened under the direction of the British Ministry of Defense in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 to put forward an array of plans “to keep Ukraine fighting” by imposing “strategic dilemmas, costs and frictions upon Russia.”

Among many other schemes Project Alchemy sought to “aggressively pursue” and “dismantle” independent media outlets – including The Grayzone – through an aggressive campaign of legal harassment and online censorship, so they “would be forced to close.”

“Project Alchemy was founded on the personal orders of Lt. General Charlie Stickland, who is charged with “planning, executing and integrating UK led joint and multinational overseas military operations” as the head of Britain’s Permanent Joint Headquarters. Stickland convened the first meeting of Project Alchemy’s on February 26, 2022, just days after Russian troops made their initial foray into Ukraine. Information operations were to be headed by a still-to-be determined member of Britain’s 77th Psychological Operations Brigade. Also listed as a participant in information operations was longtime British psychological warfare operative Amil Khan, founder of the “counter-disinformation” analysis firm Valent Projects…

“Convinced that Putin would fail in the eastern Donbas region, triggering a collapse of his government, Project Alchemy members openly fantasized about absorbing Russia into the Western-dominated financial order afterwards under the guise of a “Post Putin Marshall Plan.” Of particular interest was London’s “re-engagement” with Moscow “in global energy and commodity markets,” a seeming reference to the West’s desire for cheap Russian gas and wheat”. 

Germany (and Europe) in Decline

Already in direct straits since Germany elected to abandon cheap Russian oil and gas, the Economist (Economist) chronicles a worsening of German prospects as a consequence of growing competition from China, and the expected 10-20% Trump tariffs on imports.

Germany has over 60 times as many people as Estonia, but only 15 times as many “unicorns” (privately owned startups worth over $1bn). German industry has been unprepared for technological shocks like the advent of electric vehicles. Cosy links between business, banks and politicians bred complacency and resistance to reform, dogmatic adherence to fiscal rules has rendered Germanyk’s export-driven model vulnerable. There has been little net growth in real gdp since before the pandemic.

Manufacturing still accounts for 20% of gross value added, almost twice the figure for France, even though industrial production peaked in 2018 and has since sagged more quickly than elsewhere. Order books are down, and planned investments have been postponed or shifted abroad. Even retailers have been hit. There is a lack of skilled workers as Germany age. Red tape is calculated to cost the economy $154bn a year. Chinese firms are morphing from customers to competitors. China now accounts for just 6% of total German exports, around the same share as the neighbouring Netherlands. China state-subsidized producers need foreign markets and offer sharp competition. German exports to China have declined, and their exports to the US will be hit by Trump’s tariffs. The car sector has been shedding jobs for six years, and a reversal seems unlikely. Germany will come under increasing pressure to increase its investment in defense.

The Energy Calculus Still Favors Russia

For World Socialist Web Site, Jason Melanovski (Melanovski) reports on Ukraine’s cessation of the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe. This underlines, he says, poses dangers to Europe and threatens the eruption of open conflict within the trans-Atlantic alliance. Russia stands to lose $6.5 billion unless it can redirect its exports to other markets. Ukraine could see .5 percent of its GDP shaved off by totally ending its role as a transit route. Ukrainian pipelines would be open to targeting by Moscow’s forces.

Despite the overall reduction in Russian gas to Europe since the start of the war, in 2023 shipments via the Ukrainian transit route had met 65 percent of demand in Austria, Hungary and Slovakia. All of these countries’ supplies are now at risk, as events last week made clear. Hungary has switched to receiving deliveries from Russia via the TurkStream pipeline that runs along the bed of the Black Sea. Slovakia continues to be dependent on Russian gas sent via Ukraine.

The United States has worked to ensure that Europe is ever-more dependent on American energy supplies. The decoupling of Russian gas from Europe was a fundamental goal of the first Trump administration, which sought to increase the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

When Trump was first in office, the US was a relatively minor player in the global LNG industry but now occupies a leading role in the European market. The US now accounts for about 40 percent of the EU’s import of LNG. Russian LNG is a major part of EU energy imports, second only to the US, but European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed replacing Russian LNG with US LNG.

Ukraine is reportedly in talks with Azerbaijan and the EU over substituting the Russian gas currently flowing through its pipelines with Azeri gas, which in reality would simply be Russian gas rebranded as Azeri. There are questions about the ability of Azerbaijan to deliver the necessary quantities, and tensions are emerging over the viability of accepting the complete cut-off of Russian supplies.

ICC Arrest Warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant for war crimes.

This has particular relevance only in the sense that it is amazing that the ICC has finally held to account an ally of Washington. Given that the ICC is subject to intense pressure from Washington, that Washington has threatened the court with sanctions if it prosecutes US citizens, and that the court has been threatened with sanctions by Trump should it proceed to issue an arrest warrant against Netanyahu, the arrest warrants signal the depth of anger and dismay that Israeli war crimes have stirred around the world, crimes that have been fully aided and abetted by the US which has now vetoed nearly 50 UN resolutions against Israel, and was yesterday the only country to veto a UN ceasefire proposal for Gaza, one that included a requirement for the safe return of Israeli hostages still in Hamas hands.

West Asia

Chris Marsden, reporting for the World Socialist Web Site, notes that British Foreign Secretary David Lammy recently announced:

“Fresh sanctions on Iran Air and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines” as “a direct response to Iran’s ballistic missile deliveries to Russia” and “a new loan backed by profits from sanctioned Russian assets, part of a new G7 package of $50 billion in assistance. And a commitment to $3 billion in military aid, for as long as it takes… we know that Putin only responds to strength.”

For World Socialist Web Site, Jacob Crosse (Crosse) reports tha the US Senate yesterday affirmed its support for the Israeli genocide in Gaza, which has killed and injured over 300,000 people since October 7, 2023, and roundly rejected a series of resolutions aimed at blocking a fraction of a $20 billion war package the Biden administration approved for Israel in August.