Nuclear Options

How Long for the SMO?

Did Putin actually say that if things continue the way that they are going then the SMO might end as soon as September this year? Well, Mercouris today reports that he has been unable so far to trace actual proof that this is what Putin actually said. It is hardly inconceivable that the report is misinformation, given that any such prediction would be conditional on so many other factors, including Western willingness to negotiate or surrender, or the lack of it.

Sharpening the Offensives

Russia appears to have deliberately taken measures to avoid the mistake it made following its victories of Mariupol and Bakhmut of exhausting its troops and being unable to sustain steam and to move on neighboring settlements. On this occasion in the wake of Russia’s success in Avdiivka, Russia has maintained very large concentrations of forces in such places as Lyman-Kupiansk area (up to 150,000), Bakhmut area (40,000 to 60,000), and Robotyne (40,000 to 60,000) and is ready to continue without taking a breath.

Air and Weapons Control

Much has been said of the importance of Russian air control in accounting for its victory in Avdiivka. There are concerns however about the numbers of Russian Su34s and Su35s currently operational, in the light of what are rumored to have been the downing of two of these, either by Ukraine (less likely) or by friendly fire. Any weakening of Russian air control will clearly complicate the speed of its advances in other areas. On the plus side, Russia has announced the completion of the production of four new Tu-160M cruise missile carriers which can operate and fire over very large distances. Its stock of missiles is being augmented by purchases from Iran - with whom Russia now has a mutual security agreement - of 300km-700km missiles.

Ukraine is receiving promises from the European Union of large numbers (a million) of drones, but it is disputed whether these can possibly compete in importance with air control, or with artillery that has been well supplied with ammunition. The Czech Republic has recently offered Ukraine a reported 800,000 155mm or comparable shells, but it is not clear how long this might take and the actual quality of the shells that have been offered. A lot of promises of this kind - the desultory provision of random, different things from different countries, are, on the basis of recent experience, unreliable, often of insufficient recency or quality and not suitable for the kind of combined arms operations in which Ukraine clearly needs greater proficiency.

While some European powers are keen to placate Ukraine with their modest to small gifts, its immediate neighbor, Poland, is angering Zelenskiy who is demanding that the Polish prime minister go immediately to the Polish-Ukraine border to sort out the latest farmers’ blockade of imports of Ukrainian produce - just the sort of pompous sense of entitlement that fails to endear Zelenskiy to anyone other than his most craven allies. No wonder that the latest polls show that over 70% of Ukrainian citizens now think it is time for a diplomatic solution to the war.

So far as drones and shells are concerned the numbers cited do not begin to compete seriously with the numbers currently being produced by Russia for itself. This is not to say the presence of drones in the battlefield, by the tens of thousands, sometimes on a single day, has not revolutionized warfare. As has the rise of electronic warfare to neutralize drones. And we have yet to see the unfolding of the applications of Artificial Intelligence to combate. But so far, I would think the serious money, if that is not a contradiction in terms, is on Russia.

There may very well be a problem for Russia in the domain of satellites since Ukraine has strong support from Western and in particular US satellite networks and Russia is not preeminent in this field. This may give some force to what others have dismissed as a false Washington narrative of concern about Russian intent to destroy Western satellites with a nuclear powered space weapon. Quite possibly, Russia is not actually inclined in that direction - Soigu said yesterday that Russia does not deploy weapons in outer space in conformity with the 1967 treaty on the peaceful use of outer space - but it certainly has motivation to be examining its options in this regard.

Battlefields

Following the fall of Avdiivka a few days ago, it seemed inevitable that Russia would, among other things, take the village to the west, Lastochkyne, where retreating Ukrainian forces had taken position. That has not yet occurred although there have been clashes today and Russia has subjected the settlement to heavy shelling. Russian forces are in command of the high ground in this area and have sight of developments all around them, so it seems unlikely that Ukraine will try to defend any of the villages in this zone for very much longer.

In similar vein, it is reported that Ukrainian forces are retreating from the settlements to the north of Avdiivka namely, Berdyche and Stepove, to the immediate west of the railway and landfill. Mercouris today speculates that Russia may now be able to put the railway to its own uses, putting further pressure on Ukrainian positions north and south. Control of the railway will improve the supply of good water to Donetsk City. Recovery of railway use for Russia in the Bakhmut area, as Russia advances on settlements to the west of the city, will facilitate Russian logistics and its advances west to Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk. Similar advantages for Russia clearly pertain to its expanding control of the road networks in these areas. However, so far as Bakhmut is concerned, Russia (having secured Kromove some weeks ago) is still in intense engagements in the areas of Bohdanivka, Chasiv Yar, and Ivanivske.

Russia has also moved on the town to the southwest of Avdiivka, Pobieda, which it appears Russia has now fully captured. Russia is acquiring much of the territory that separates Pobieda from Marinka. Russia also appears to have taken Krasnohorivka or is in the process of doing so. This settlement is north east of Heorhiivka, towards which Russia has already achieved significant advance and Russia appears to be gradually taking the territory that separates these two locations.

These developments suggest that Russia will be able to move further forces southwards in order to assist the Russian taking of the towns of Novomykhailivka (something that it may complete in a matter of hours or days) and Kostiantynivka to the immediate south (although there are significant Ukrainian positions to the west, between Pobieda and Kostiantynivka) and, a bit further to the southwest, the major fortified town of Vuhledar, made up entirely of high-rise buildings and whose supply roads are currently being suppressed by Russia. East of Vuhledar, Russia looks likely to squeeze Ukrainian positions in the small cauldron that separates Russian-controlled Mykilske and Russian-controlled Solodke.

There are continuing accounts of clashes on the western border of Robotyne, suggesting that earlier reports of a Ukrainian retreat from this area up towards Orikhiv were premature, notwithstanding an overall hardening of Russian offensives here. Dima predicts an upcoming Russian advance north. To the west, Russia is bridging the gap betrween Piatyhatky and Zherebianky, and northwards, between Zherebianky and Kamianske.

In the Lyman area, the north, Russian forces are within a few meters of the small town of Terny, which is generally considered to be undefendable. The town is on the Zherebets river, fairly easily fordable. This will weaken Ukraine’s defense of Bilohorivka, make it easier for Russia to take Siversk, and make it easier for Russia to move on Lyman (which they had captured temporarily in 2022). To the east, Russia has still to launch a ground operation on Bilohorivka, which it is subjecting to heavy bombing and shelling, mindful of a large concentration of Ukrainian forces to the immediate west.

Further north still, along the border between Ukraine and Belgorod (favorite target after Donetsk Citry for Ukraine terroristic attacks on civilians), Ukraine reports that Russia has situated 48 Iskander missile launch systems.

In Kherson, to the west, Russia has gained full control of what had been Ukraine’s foothold in Krynky. With this victory dies the final embers of what its critics have said was the always-reckless Ukrainian hopes for a retaking of Crimea by means of crossing the Dnieper.

Putin and Shoigu Speak

In his conversation yesterday with his defense minister Shoigu, Putin is reported to have said that Russia will build on its success in, and continue its offensive in the area of, Avdiivka. The Russian MoD calculates that even in the past 24 hours Ukraine has lost over 1,000 soldiers in the Donetsk and Southern Donetsk areas. Shoigu indicates that the Ukrainian counteroffensive of 2023 was micromanaged from Washington. This is confirmed by comments today from Lt. Col. Daniel Davies who has commented critically on the insufficiency of training of Ukrainian forces and on the basing of US/Ukrainian strategy on decades of US combat experience of fighting against inferior and less experienced enemies: in Ukraine, the US has for the first time since World War Two encountered a peer enemy.

Gaza and the Middle East

Ryan Dawson tells Judge Napolitano today that blaming Palestinians for the attack by Hamas on October 7th is the equivalent of blaming a slave revolt on the slaves, instead of blaming slavery. He notes the negative economic pacts for Israel of the mobilization of the IDF reserve army, and of the departure of Israeli citizens who originated in Europe and other parts of the developed world and who will not now want to return to such an insecure and unlikanble environment.

But Israel’s leadership is now occupying a reason-free zone in which it is possible for people like Netanyahu and Ganz to contemplate the murder by bombing of Palestinians as something they like to call “defense,” along with the destruction of schools and hospitals, the starvation of the people, murder of children and families by snipers, in an overall situation that is certainly comparable with the Holocaust. Brazilian President Lulu called it a Holocaust, prompting his Israeli critics to call him a Holocaust-denier when in fact he was affirming the Holocaust. Israel is beyond shame. Western mainstream media are treading far too gingerly, not to say cowardly, on the horror of all this and of Biden’s culpability for enabling and supporting it. X is the only media platform that is showing the crimes.

There are anti-genocide protests all around the world, and this is a measure of the eventual demise that Israel will confront, and it is a measure of the dawning realization of young people around the world of the crimes of Western leaders and the extent to which they routinely lie about the atrocities (such as the WMD fake claims of 2003, and the coup d’etat in Kiev in 2014) for which they are responsible.

Nancy Pelosi says that calls for a ceasefire in Gaza would be “Putin’s message” - thus, the pathetic descent of the US plutocratic Democratic elite into the cesspool of self-serving, wickedly inhumane evil, greed, and idiocy. Philip Giraldi tells Judge Napolitano today the story of the UN running a food convoy into Gaza on a route agreed with the Israelis and the Israelis then destroyed it.

Take note of Giraldi’s reminding of the world of Israel’s long-standing nuclear status, entirely outside the control of international regulation, based on components stolen from the USA, a capability that it has in the past threatened to use in the event that the country is going down.

Worry about Russia exploding a nuclear weapon in space? Or worry about Israel destroying the world in the event that Hezbollah slaughters the IDF? Cake or death?