Nothing-Something News
The main development is that there is no development: no Israeli strike on Iran; Iran seemingly waiting for Israel to strike it without a preemptive strike by Iran on Israel to save itself.
There is substantial evidence of ongoing Iranian talks via Qatar to persuade the US to pressure Israel to limit itself to a strike only on Iranian military facilities, not on Iranian nuclear nor energy facilities both of which could have a severe blowback impact on both Israel and the West. Iran’s military facilities are very spread out.
Iran might not even stage a further retaliation on Israel if the Israel attack is carefully calibrated. Iran is engaging with all neighboring powers so that they remain neutral, at best, in the event of all-out conflict.
But all of this goodwill counts for little in my view if it allows the carnage in Gaza and the West Bank and in southern Lebanon (where the UN is hanging on for the time being) to continue. And it is continuing. Israel appears to want to push Palestinians out of the north of Gaza and to reassert a buffer zone in southern Lebanon while allowing Israeli citizens back into northern Israel.
Accounts vary radically as to who is “winning” ” in southern Lebanon but there is some merit in the viewpoint that if Hezbollah can engage Israel in a long war of attrition in Lebanon, while keeping up its flood of missile strikes on Haifa and Tel Aviv (Iran is believed to have 3000 more ballistic missiles at its disposal, not to mention the armories of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis) then Israel has effectively lost and its economy will collapse. On the other hand it is not impossible that Israel’s push into Lebanon is related strategically to its upcoming offensive in Iran.
As indicated in my post yesterday the absence of action so far may have as much to do with Russian as with US caution. The security agreement or “strategic partnership” between Russia and Iran has still to be signed but is still expected/hoped to be signed by the time of the BRICS meeting in Kazan in a few days time.
The main question is whether Russia has supplied adequate protection to Iran in the form of air defense (S-400s) systems. Russian air defense is said to be superior to that of either the US or Israel. Russia is already supplying Suhoi-35s.
US supply of a THAAD missile defense system to Israel with 100 US soldiers to maintain and work it will give Israel only 48 missiles, which is very low when set against the 180 ballistic missiles fired by Iran on Israel on October 1st.
Only about 50 such missiles are produced in any one year and total production so far scarcely exceeds 1000. THAAD is no game-changer.
The 100 US troops meanwhile may be there as a pretext, should they come to harm - which seems all too likely - for US engagement with Israel against Iran.
I think Russia has assisted Iran in the acquisition of ballistic missiles, including hypersonic missiles. If Iran is producing these I think it is as a result of Russian intervention.
Europe’s claim that Iran is providing Russia with ballistic missiles, a claim denied by Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, yet one which Europe is using as a pretext for imminent sanctions on Iran, seems unlikely to be true and is in any case deeply hypocritical (when is the West anything other than a cesspool of hypocrisy?).
Araghachi does say that Iran has supplied short range (250km) missiles to Russia. Earlier in the Ukraine war, Iran likely supplied Russia with Geran 2 drones, production and further development of which Russia then took on for itself.
It would be incredible to my mind, given the imminence of Israeli aggression, that Russia would have held back from providing adequate security to a key partner. Araghachi says that Iran’s collaboration with Russia is of very long standing . If Russia has been slow to protect Iran and if Russia is unable to restrain Israel, then I think we may be looking at a betrayal as serious as Russian betrayal of the Spanish republic in 1936.
Have the neocons exaggerated the threat to the West of the Russian-Iranian alliance in order to provoke US support of Israel vis-a-vis Iran? I don’t think so, but I fear for Iran in any case if Iran thinks that either the US or Israel can be trusted.