NATO Closer to Direct War
This will be a very short entry, at least for now, as I am still on the road. Ukraine’s invasive attacks, at least five, on the Russian mainland in the Belgorod region over the past two days are reported to have been repelled by Russia, with heavy Ukrainian losses. It is becoming clear that some reports from the Ukrainian side were deeply deceptive. The attacks were anticipated by Russia with bomb, artillery and drone attacks on large Ukrainian troop concentrations I draw the conclusion that Ukraine made the decision to make the best of a bad job and proceed regardless. This tells me that the objective was not victory but sympathetic Western press coverage that would help push Congress to provide money. In this it was successful. Congress has provided emergency aid of $300m including ATACMS long range missile and HIMARS launchers (which may have already been sent). These will assist in further blanket Ukrainian drone attacks of the kind we saw last night across Russia. Some were successful. They included attempts to hit a nuclear power station in Rostov, I believe, and took place alongside a renewed Ukrainian offensive on the Zapporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant -Dima speculates that Ukraine is maneuvering for something it can use to blackmail Russia with. Russians will not be happy with evidence of very light protection of their borderlands even if the Russian army responded effectively.
Further border attacks are expected in advance of Russia’s presidential elections on Sunday but anyone who thinks there is anything Ukraine can do to significantly challenge Putin’s popularity needs a different drug.
The scale of last night’s drone attacks is strongly indicative to my mind of an upscaling of NATO involvement in surveillance, launch and navigation, including of new Geran style drones. This should be coupled with the announcement, following the recent start of NATO exercises including Finnish and Swedish forces and involving 300,000 men along the West Ukrainian border. Zelensky’s intelligence chief Bodabov is making a lot of noise about a coming Ukraine attack on Crimea across the mouth of the Dnieper and its islands. In the meantime it is Russia that has made a daring commando river to the West Bank near Kherson to take out a chopper base.
Far from a victory for the China Hawks that some believed might have been presaged by Nuland’s departure, we see the Russia Hawks suddenly ascendant. We have entered what is likely to be the most dangerous phase of the war. While the French army’s hitherto secret report considers that Ukraine cannot possibly win, especially without US participation, there are still plenty who would like to prove that assessment wrong.