Mid-May Mayhem?

Russian Advances in Ukraine

The overall situation in Ukraine is one of intensifying Russian advances westwards, still relatively slow but always now close to a potential tipping point that - in the context of failing or even completely absent Ukrainian air defenses (note that Zelenskiy is asking the West for 25 Patriot delivery systems with 8 launchers per system; the US military for itself uses only 16 and what Zelenskiy is asking for may be more than exists in the world), a failing air force, scarcity of Ukrainian artillery and of 120mm and 155mm shells - might take the form of a sudden breakthrough of Ukrainian fortifications. There are reports that Ukraine is so husbanding its shells that it is no longer shooting down Russian missiles.

The overview this morning from Military Summary channel talks of Ukrainian intentions to evacuate areas to the north in Kharkiv area and between Sumy and Kharkiv. This incorporates a major railway supply route and also a road route to the west via Sharkive. There is an expectation developing, in other words, of a coming crisis. This is in the wake not simply of Russian announcements of its intention to establish a buffer zone along the north-east border of Ukraine with Russia but also of intensive Russia attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities in several of Ukraine’s major cities in the area close to the lines of combat including Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, Dnipro, and Odessa.

At midday today, Dima reports a Russian Iskandr missile strike on a Ukrainian fuel train from Kharkiv. FAB bomb strikes have also hit the Air Force University. Russia has additionally attacked a Ukrainian troop concentration near Vovchansk to the north.

Dima interprets the fuel train attack as a Russian attempt to ensure that they will meet with minimum resistance to a Russian ground offensive on Kharkiv. He also notes evidence of many recent Russian strikes on oil storage and ammunition depots in both west and east Ukraine (e.g Zviahel; Novograd-Volynsky in the west; Udachne, Novololyzavetivka, Sloviansk towards the east). While Ukraine is building fortifications 100 kilometers from Kharkiv, it should have started these one or two years ago to be really effective, not just a few weeks in advance of a Russian offensive.

Ukrainian intelligence chief Budanov predicts a major Russian offensive in the late Spring and early Summer; Dima narrows this down to the period following Russian Easter celebrations, perhaps around May 15. But there are many different points at which such an offensive might be attempted, not just Kharkiv; maybe even Kherson (again), or Siversk or Kiev.

The latest issue of the Economist claims that Russia’s intent is to force the civilian population out of Kharkiv in preparation for a ground offensive, in an effort to reduce civilian casualties. In the past 24 hours another city whose energy facilities has been targeted is Kryvyi Rih. Kharkiv’s fate may have been determined when Russia identified Ukrainian MLRS and similar facilities based in Kharkiv intended for strikes on the Russian city of Belgorod over the border.

ZPNN (again)

There are reports of a major drone attack against Zaporizhzhnia Nuclear Power Plant (the largest in Europe) which past experience, in my estimation, almost certainly points to Ukraine as the culprit, given that Russia controls the ZNPP (despite several attempts by Ukraine to recapture it during the summer and fall counteroffensive in 2023). No significant damage is reported, except to some buildings that house workers. The purpose may be to frighten the workers into leaving the plant, and, in that way, to put the plant in danger. The IAEA is present at the plant and, under Western pressure, is disinclined to help identify perpetrators of attacks on the plant.

The Ukrainian attack on ZPNN is presumably a response to the overall decline in Ukraine’s military situation on the ground. It is, as Mercouris puts it today in his daily broadcast, an act of blackmail by Ukraine against the West. In short, I would say: give us more money and weapons or we will do reckless things that may bring radiation to your front doors, either through a nuclear power plant incident or actual nuclear war. But whether damaging a power plant would actually have the kind of effect the Ukrainians imagine is doubtful.

They seem not to care that attacks on nuclear power plants constitute a specific red line for China. This might well further consolidate Chinese support for Russia over the conflict with Ukraine and the collective West. China has already concluded that the US is over-extended in Ukraine and in the Middle East, and is a paper tiger so far as its threats over Taiwan are concerned.

China’s Wang Li is in fact today talking to Russian foreign minister Lavrov in Beijing, perhaps as a prelude to a visit by Putin. The two men will doubtless recall Putin’s meeting with Xi Jinping on February 4 2022 that in effect established a security alliance between the two countries. They will be planning what to do if the West doubles down, supplies the F16s and does its best to look as though it is winning something in time for the presidential elections in November.

So far, Russia does not need Chinse military support, as noted by Ray McGovern today in interview with Judge Napolitano, but it benefits from China as a trading partner (as in the Russian supply of oil and gas): this is already a threat to the US, as evidenced by Yellen’s complaints to China this week that China is producing too much, not giving the US sufficient competitive space on the playing field. Yellen’s Chinese interlocutor cited Communist China’s commitment to principles of the market economy.

Mercouris yesterday has speculated that India, in particular, may be refining some of the crude oil it imports from Russia, and selling it on to the USA and other countries in the collective West. In fact, Russia may be refining some of its own oil and sending it to the West via India. The point is that after refining, the oil is no longer considered “Russian.” It thereby escapes sanctions but also helps out the West with cheaper oil supply than would otherwise pertain. This may be the reason why the USA recently discouraged Ukraine from targeting oil and gas facilities in its strikes inside Russian territory.

The Battlefields

Russian forces are making progress around the landfill south of Bilohorivka. This has been an area of considerably intensve combat in recent weeks, but Russian forces are persisting and they look likely to cut the northern edge of the very large landfill area, which I believe is on higher ground, from the settlement, and then encircle the settlement, forcing a Ukrainian evacuation. Success here will strengthen Russia’s medium-term plans on Siversk to the south-west. Already, there is evidence of a Russian FPV drone attack on a trench between the villages of Hryhorivka and Serebrianka well to the west of Bilohorivka. Russia continues to hit energy, ammo and fuel facilities in Siversk.

Further south in the Bakhmut area, Russia has reportedly now taken or rather has penetrated central Bohdanivka, splitting Ukrainian forces, and also moving towards the village of Hryhorivka (destination also, perhaps, of Ukrainian forces evacuating Bohdanivka) to the north and penetrating the village of Kalynivka to the south west, all this putting more Russian pressure on eastern sections of Chasiv Yar where Russia today was bombing an AFU repair shop. Adding to the pressure are Russian moves from Russian-held Zelenopillia back on Andriivka and Klishchiivka (which Russia lost during the Ukrainian summer and fall counteroffensive).

In the Avdiivka area further north, Russia has been moving on Movokalynove and Keremik, north of Krasnohorivka and east of Ocheretyne (north of Orlivka), and bombing warehouses and ammunition depots in settlements further to the west such as Udachne and Puskine. North of Ocheretyne there appears to be a major Russian advance from the south in the directions of Stepanivka and Ivanopillia, as well from the east towards Dytivka.

Previous reports have determined Russian advances on Umansk and Nataloive, west of Tonenke. South of Avdiivka, Russia has almost completed its assault on Novomykhailivka, and is intensifying its bombing, artillery and drone attacks on Vuhledar in preparation for a ground offensive on this settlement.

North of Avdiivka, there have been recent reports of a significant Ukrainian counterattack on Russian forces lined up to the east of Terny. Ukraine has amassed a very large concentration of forces to the west of Terny. There is some video support for these claims - unlike similar claims a week ago of a major Ukrainian counterattack west of Tonenke, which turned out either to be false or exaggerated.

In Kupyansk area, Russia has destroyed a dam separating two reservoirs between the villages of Yampolivka and Myrne, connecting with the Zherebets River, and indicating an extension of Russian presence to Kolodiazi to the west.

Ukraine Loses Artillery

According to the Russian MoD there was a Russian counterattack against a Ukrainian assault yesterday. Ukraine, as a result of artillery duels here and in the Kupyansk area, lost two 152mm and one 122mm self-propelled artillery systems, one 152mm D20 gun, one MLRS launcher, one GRAD MLRS launcher, one US manufactureed counterbattery warfare radar, and one electronic warfare station. In other areas of fighting, specifically around Chasiv Yar and the Marinka area, Ukraine lost one 155mm M777 Howitzer, two US-manufactured 105mm M119 guns, one British manufactured 150mm FH70 Howitzer, one German-manufactured 155mm PZH self-propelled artillery system, three 150mm D20 Howitzers, one 152 self-propelled artillery system, three 122 D30 howitzers, one ammunition depo and three electronic warfare stations.

The $61 Billion Package

There is still uncertainty as to the strength of Mike Johnson’s intentions to bring a vote in the House on the Ukraine aid package after Congress returns from its Easter break - we could be talking another week or so. Johnson may convert the aid into a loan, as I indicated the other day; it could become a trade for yet more money for security on the US’s southern border; or it could be for less money than originally envisaged ($61 billion); or, increasing opposition within the Republican Party could stymie it altogether, particularly now that Trump is the Republican Party’s official candidate for the presidency and given Trump’s apparent opposition to a continuation of the conflict with Russia over Ukraine.

Macron’s Folly

Complicating the equation is the pose struck by President Macron of France in possible alliance with Britain and one or more of the Baltic States in favor of a NATO presence inside Ukraine (with a view, possibly, to dividing up Western Ukraine?) - specifically without a guarantee of US rescue, although Macron possibly hopes that when push comes to shove the US will, after all, show up. Meanwhile, the governments of Hungary and Slovakia are seeking a peaceful resolution, critical of NATO, while other European states including Poland are expressing doubts. In Poland this is partly in response to the hostility of its farming community and even of some part of its working class to the import of cheap foodstuffs and other items from Ukraine. In short, NATO is fragmenting, with some major members, like Italy and Spain, beginning to have doubts about the military war, about the sanctions war and about the implications for the war of a future Trump era.

Crocus Hall

Col. Lawrence Wilkerson (a former assistant to Colin Powell) told Judge Napolitano the other day that he believes that the Crocus Hall terrorist activity was a CIA operation, not least because ISIS is in effect a US creation. If so, Crocus Hall was an act of war and Russia will have read it as such. Napolitano keeps trying to implicate Victoria Nuland on the basis of her earlier comments about assymetric warfare and unpleasant surprises for Russia, but many of his guests resist this connection (rightly, in my view, given the absence of evidence).

What we know for sure, because it has told us, is that the CIA has been deeply implicated in Ukraine since 2014 if not before. Nuland’s use of the term “assymetric” warfare is a tacit admission that Ukraine is losing the war, as Larry Johnson notes in discussion today with Napolitano. Alaistair Crooke has speculated that the original overall plan was that while the act of terror would have been taking place against a patriotic rock concert in Moscow, alleged “pro-Russian patriot” terrorists would be taking over Russian villages in the Belgorod region.

Palestine

In Israel, there is gathering concern that after six months of war, Israel - at enormous cost of innocent Palestinian life (33,000 to 45,000 dead, including at least 13,000 children, over 70,000 wounded) - has achieved none of its formal objectives, including the destruction of Hamas and rescue of the hostages, and has instead earned Israel and the US only the disgust and disapprobation of the world. Meantime, Israel cannot even stop Houthi rockets from Yemen and Houthi disruption to Israeli trade. As Israel threatens Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria and QUDS in Iran, the reality is that Russian and possibly Chinese engagement and the destruction of NATO will follow.

The one objective that Zionist Israel may consider itself close to achieving is annihilation and/or exile of the Palestinian people through acts of genocide, exemplified by its reckless use of AI Lavender to destroy what it recklessly and hatefully progammed would be 36,000 Hamas fighters in Gaza. What can this really achieve other than an eternity of revenge?

The supply of food aid, while it may have picked up a little in response to Biden’s recent pleas, is far short of the 500 trucks a day that would be needed if the threat of starvation was to be truly lifted. Israel is removing troops from southern Gaza, but this is most likely a matter of redeployment in advance of its ground operation at Rafah, even as it has effectively declared war on Lebanon, Syria and Iran. Iran’s threat of retaliation for Israel’s attack on its Damascus consulate is causing Israel to depopulate its embassies in many locations.