Legally Toothless Document Signed Electronically; Low Chance of Success

IRAN

The start of my week is a little busier than usual and I don’t have time for a deep dive into the many sources I typically consult for this Substack column.

On the basis of my understanding so far I am going to stick with the judgment of my most recent post, which is: don’t trust anything you hear about the Gulf deal, at least for the moment.

I would put the odds of a happy ending to this deal at around 5%, and I am in a generous mood.

Note: how many commentators that you read in the mainstream are reminding you , as they waffle on repeating Administration talking points about Trump’s determination to steal or to dilute (with what? Donald’s urine?) Iran’s enriched uranium and about how the clever Donald and mini-me 12-year-old Hegseth have ensured that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon - after decades of Iranian assurance that they don’t want one, and decades of US intelligence and IAEA assurance that they don’t have one? - that the only nuclear threat in the region is Israel, which has illegally acquired hundreds of nuclear warheads?

None? Exactly. Mainstream media maggots.

Let me just repeat here a report from the Hill (The Hill) received within the past hour:

“Both President Trump and Vice President Vance electronically signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran on Sunday, while Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, speaker of the Iranian Parliament, signed for the Iranian side, senior U.S. officials said Monday.

“The details of the memorandum will be released in 24 to 48 hours, the officials said. (So NOTE: no official details yet, at the time of my writing this!)

“The agreement is only the first step, one said, and then “real technical discussions” will begin later this week and will be led by Vance. (My interpretation: almost anything and everything will probably go wrong, especially with Israel continuing its murderous spree in Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank)

“We’ll be releasing the text this week, and what everybody will see is that Iran doesn’t get a dime of money unless they perform their obligations, and the money that we’re talking about is fundamentally sanctions relief,” Vance said in an interview with ABC’s “Good Morning America” on Monday. (My intepretation: the US gangster regime needs you to believe that the US is still basically in charge and that even though it was promising, vainly, to give billions to the US over the weekend in an effort to stop Iran from retaliating against Israel’s attack on southern Beirut, there'll be no “real” money on the able, just sanctions “relief.” Sincere people, competent people, do not use - have no need for - this kind of bully language).

“Trump echoed those sentiments while meeting with French President Emmanual Macron in France for the G7 later Monday, saying the full agreement would be released “sometime after Friday.” (Oh, so we won’t be getting ALL the details until AFTER Friday, maybe during lap-dogs’ media’s long news hole?)

“The physical document is set to be signed this Friday, with Vance and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, present in Geneva, Switzerland. Trump himself suggested he would not be in attendance. (Is none of it really legal until we have a signed physical document? Is it legal if it does not have the President’s signature? What are the odds that this MOU - which has no legal force anyway - will last even till Friday? Why Geneva? Who will be signing for Iran? Will they also be in Geneva? Will there just be one signed document or maybe different signed documents? If the latter, will they actually be the same versions? - because by the sound of their public statements the two sides seem to be have totally different memoranda).

“The officials told reporters that the U.S. will maintain its current force posture in the region during the 60-day negotiation period. (Oooh, so tough and manly! I thought Trump told us yesterday that he had essentially given the order for everyone to lift anchor?).

“One official said traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has already increased and will “ramp up slowly over time.” (Oh…..not so fast, then….slow, slow, slow, more time for things to go wrong before there is any real difference on the ground or, rather, on the sea).

“So far, Iran has not received any frozen assets from the U.S. or other countries. (Yessss; weren’t we being told yesterday that there would be a release of several billion dollars of frozen assets just to get the process started?)

“We are prepared to release frozen funds, and we are prepared to release sanctions,” one official said. “And we’ll do some small gestures of that in the beginning, if they make some small gestures to us that show that they’re willing to meet their commitments as well.”

“The other official pushed back on the idea that any side deals could be cut with Iran to get some funds released by other Gulf nations.

“They’re very supportive of this,” the official said, calling the idea “not just unlikely, but preposterous.”

“The deal with Iran also does not include a requirement for Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. (Red Line Alert!!!)

“The deal is a ceasefire, and it will not be a one-way ceasefire, meaning that if Iran is not able to control Hezbollah, and if they attack, you know, Israeli positions or Israeli towns, Israel will have the right to defend themselves and respond,” the official said. (Yeah, well, we all know how that works out…….If Israel actually withdraws and stops firing into Lebanon theh Hexbollah has not incenvite to fire on Isreal).

“But optimism was also expressed that “we can find a way to create a new framework for the region based on modern times, modern aspirations.”

Ukraine

It does look as though Russia’s attack last night on Kiev fulfils its promise of continuing retaliation for “Ukraine’s” (i.e. the Collective West’s) killing of 21-25 school children in the Donbass a few weeks ago. Russia attacked Ukraine last night with 681 drones and missiles, including Iskander missiles, hypersonic zircon (and kinzhal?), 101 and other missiles (including a new, more flexible variety whose name I have yet to catch), especially on Ukraine, but also on the cities of Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia (including hits on railway assets that have crippled Ukrainian supply logistics) and Kharkiv. Other than an alleged hit on a factory that produces Ukrainian flamingo missiles, and an unfortunate strike on a church, the targets (warehouses, post offices etc.) sounded less than exciting or of critical importance. Elsewhere Russia made significant advances in Sumy, Vovchansk, the northeast corner of Kharkiv, movement into Kozachi Lopsan, the area east of river Oskil above Kupyansk, the city of Lyman, the city of Kostiantynivksa. There are further details that I will catch up on in later posts this week.