Kharkiv Update (2)

A Real Offensive

As I indicated in my post yesterday, Dima of the Military Summary Channel from Belarus was expressing some skepticism in his report at midday yesterday (California time) that the Russians actually had staged an offensive into Kharkiv. Well, those doubts seem to have evaporated as of midnight last night. In essence, the two major Russian targets at this stage appear to be the settlements or towns of Lyptsi and Vovchansk.

Four areas of the borderlands so far have been impacted: south of Russian settlement Zhuravyovka, north of Ukrainian settlements of Hlyboke and Kukiantsi, north of the Ukrainian town of Vesele, and north of the Ukrainian town of Vochanski.

Four Routes

As for the first of these, the situation as of midnight last night (California time), Russia appears to be in control of Kudivka, Shcherbakovke, and Hoptrivka. The general direction is towards Pytomnyk. As for the second, far larger area to the east, Russia appears to have broad control from the Ukrainian town of Strelechya in the west to Borisovka in the east, including the villages of Krasne, Pylnya, Olinykove and Morockhovets. The general direction appears to be Lyptsi. Russian forces had entered the northern outskirts of Hiyboke but were impeded, so far, by a river barrier. In the third case, Russia has control over the village of Zelene, with the general direction being Vesele. In the fourth and important case, Russia has established control over a large area immediately north of the town of Vovchansk, involving settlements of Pletenivka, Hatyshche, Ohirtseve, and Ogurtsovo. Russia had dropped 24 glide bombs over Volchansk at the time of reporting last midnight. In the fifth case, to the immediate northeast of Vovchansk, Russia had taken the village of Zybyne. The bridge between Zybyne and Vovchansk has apparently been destroyed by Ukrainian forces to deter a Russian attack on Vovchansk from the east.

Bombing Bridges and Supply Routes

South of the two major pincer movements established by Russian forces, Russia has bombed a bridge over the Donets river which destroyed one of the main Ukrainian supply routes between Vovchansk and Kharkiv, and has also targeted remaining Ukrainian air defense systems in the area. Two other bridges have been destroyed by Russia, one near Tykhe which interrupts Ukrainian supply of reinforcements to Zybyne to the east, now under Russisan control; and a bridge east of Staryrivka which interrupts supply to Buhruvatka and Prylipka to the east. The village of Tykhe, by the way, is on high ground and now that it appears that Russia has taken control over it, this gives Russia convenient sight of the entirety of Vovchansk which does seem highly likely to fall to Russia soon.

Sumy Next?

Further north, Dima this morning reports that there is a concentration of Russian forces in the Kursk area, suggestive of an offensive in the direction of Sumy. Military sources in Kiev meanwhile are talking about the formation of ten new Ukrainian brigades (30-35,000 men) most likely for the defense of the borderlands.

Dubious Quality of Ukrainian Defense

But Ukraine appears to have been taken by surprise by the Russian offensive perhaps because the consensus had been developed that there would be no action before May 15th. Furthermore, Dima, in his report of midday, today, May 11, considers that of the Ukrainian defense brigades in this area most have less than sterling reputations: Perhaps the 125th from Kupyansk is the most battle-hardened; but the 42nd mechanized brigade was recently defeated near Chasiv Yar; the 23rd and 115th mechanized brigades were recently defeated near Ocheretyne; the 43rd mechanized brigade had previously been based in Stepove Novoselivka, close to Kyslivka which has just fallen to Russisa; the 120th brigade has been redeployed from a non-combat area close to the border with Belarus.

Buffer Zone or Kharkiv?

On the basis of the evidence we have seen so far, it is not clear whether Russia is intending to establish a ten kilometer buffer zone, or whether it intends to proceed to the city of Kharkiv, 40 kilometers from the border with Russia.

In his most recent report of midday, May 11th (California time), Dima essentially confirms all that was covered in his previous report, noting that these details had now been confirmed for the most part by the Russian MoD with respect to the activities of the Russian Sever group of forces. This source says that so far in this operation, the Ukrainian army has suffered 170 losses and Russia has taken 34 prisoners, and the losses of three armored vehicles, four motor vehicles, one Czech Vampire launcher, one French Ceasar self-propelled artillery system, one Bogdama self-propelled artillery system, five Howitzers, two self-propelled BUK launchers. Altogether, according to the Russian MoD, Russia has so far liberated 110 square miles. These include, most recently, the taking of the village of Gatishche; and Russian advances towards Goptovka and, near Vesele, Neskuchne; and, near Vovchansk, Zybyne. Russia is also closing in on Ternova (east of Vesele) and Volokhivksa and Karichne on the route towards Bilyi Kolodiaz.

Other Battlefields

Elsewhere: in the Kupyansk area, Russian forces are moving westwards towards Pishchane, while a little further south they are moving westwards towards (and may have already entered) Stelmakhivka and may also move on Novoselivske. This suggests a general assault in the direction of the Oskil river. Russia continues to make territorial gains south of Pervomaiske, in the Avdiivka area, and on both Umanske (mainly under Russian control) and Netailove (75% of which now seems to be under Russian control), which would prefigure a westwards move on Karlivke and the Karlivka Reservoir. Further south in Krasnohoriivka there are reports that Russian forces have taken a considerable section of the central part of the settlement which will automatically indicate a complete Russian victory here in the near future. In the Zapporizhzia area, Russian bombing and drone attacks have for several days been targeting air defense and energy facilities, suggesting that Russia may also be considering a ground operation here as well. One target was an air field near Manvelivka, as a result of which Ukraine lost several aircraft. In Kherson area and the Dnieper estuary, Russia has retaken the island of Nestryha which Ukraine had entered just a few days ago.

In addition to the urgent military aid ($400m) sent by the US to Ukraine as reported by Dima yesterday (I have yet to see confirmation), Europe is also sending more weapons (apparently up to 1,600 more missiles), and Brussels is encouraging more security guarantees between individual EU and NATO countries with Ukraine until Ukraine is a member of NATO and the EU (which may be a very long time away).