Just Your Normal Nuclear Escalation?

Ukraine Attacks Another Russian ICBM Early Warning Radar System

NATO, through its proxy Ukraine, has damaged what Dima of the Military Summary channel says is the second (but it may be the third) strike on a Voronezh-M nuclear warning radar position, this one in the village of Gorkovskoye near Orsk in the Orenburg region of Russia about 1800 kilometers from the border with Ukraine. There was a strike over the weekend on a similar radar facility in Armavir in the southern Krasnodar area of mainland Russia, much closer to the Black Sea area than Orsk. There may also have been a strike on a similar facility in Crimea which sources have apparently said was non-operational.

Dima has sources that show that Ukraine, as a NATO puppet (yet still refused entry to NATO, given that Ukrainian neutrality is Russia’s key requirement - along with several others - for there to be a peaceful resolution to the conflict) has now destroyed 20% of Russia’s ICBM early warning radar systems (important, that is to say, not so much the progress of an ICBM missile, but its launch).

The fact that two and perhaps three such facilities have been hit in a matter of days is highly suggestive of specific intent to degrade Russian nuclear infrastructure. It is inconceivable that Ukraine by itself could generate such targetting or do so without the full knowledge of NATO command and Washington. Ukrainian sources claim, unconvincingly, that the purpose of these attacks is to protect certain Ukrainian activities that these radar systems could be monitoring.

The bottom line is that NATO through Ukraine shows signs of a very specific interest in radar positions that are part of a network of 10 such positions that provide Moscow with forewarning of an ICBM attack. We dont know exactly what kind of damage these attacks have caused. Given that in the cases of both Armavir and Orsk the strikes were by drones it is possible that the damage caused was slight, as certainly seems to be the case in Armavir. It may be that the type of drone in question is an Anglo-Portuguese variety that takes off vertically and could have been fired by a sabotage or reconnaisance groups operating from Russian territory.

Nonetheless, it seems reasonable to suppose that a message is being sent, but how to interpret that message? Is NATO saying that it does not believe Russia will really use tactical or other nuclear weapons and that NATO will call any such bluff? Is NATO simply wanting to see whether, and how, Russia might retaliate? Is this just something of a distraction that Ukraine hopes will discourage the speed of Russian advances along the combat line? Or are these attacks to be read just as symbolic Budanov-inspired pin-pricks?

How dangerous are these attempts to degrade Russian nuclear warning? I would surmise extremely dangerous. First off it primes both sides to maintain their nuclear forces in a state of high alert. Secondly, by degrading Russia’s warning system, it creates greater, much greater uncertainty for Russia. Thirdly, it crosses the most important of all red lines for Russia and invites Russia to contemplate, legally, under the terms of Russia’s own rules for the deployment of nuclear weapons, actual use of such weapons against any Western facilities. All these considerations enhance jitteriness, and enormously increase the chances of an accidental nuclear war, and can incite or provoke an intentional nuclear exchange. It seems probable that the more damage that Ukraine can cause to Russia’s nuclear warning system, the greater the number of “blind spots” there will be in the warning system. Some sources claim that these facilities can be repaired or replaced fairly quickly and if so it would follow that if the intention is to exploit such blind-spots for the purposes of an attack of some kind, then that attack would need to follow fairly quickly on the destruction of the warning systems.

Blind spots could be exploited for the purposes of a Western nuclear attack on Russian facilities, giving Russia an even narrower band of time to detect incoming missiles and to take reasoned action against them. Damage to the early warning system might also interfere with Russian AI governed algorithms for a Russian response to incoming missiles. The resulting increase in Russian insecurity might even lead Russia to decide its interests would best be served with a first strike.

I would expect that a likely Russian response to Ukrainian attacks on its nuclear warning infrastructure would be a strike on a comparative NATO facility or against US military satellites (just as Russia is already conducting electronic warfare against Ukrainian use of Musk’s starling satellite system for military purposes).

The Battlefields

Ukraine’s Defense Minister, Rustum Umerov has told the press that Russia is preparing to deploy 300,000 soldiers for the purposes of a summer offensive (in addition to what Umerov says are 500,000 Russian troops already in Ukraine) that will secure fire control over Kiev and to force negotiations.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin having ordered an analysis of Ukraine’s constitution (something that nobody in Ukraine seems to want to do) has declared that Zelenskiy cannot legally extend his term as President, even under martial law conditions, and that according to the Ukrainian constitution Zelenskiy is no longer legal President and that the chief of Ukraine is the the head of RADA (Ukraine’s Parliament), a position currently occupied by Stefan Chuk.

The situation with respect to negotiations is still symied, perhaps, by a law passed under Zelenskiy that forbids negotiatons with Russia until a return of Russia to the borders of 1991.

Although there is video evidence of a buildup of Russian troops along the northern border, there has been no new ground operation as yet. Instead, Russia uses attacks with Lancet and FPV drones and artillery with a view, says Dima, to “confirm the combat line.” There is relatively little change to the situation in Lyptsi or in Vovchansk, but some evidence of Russian movement eastwards from Vovchansk in the direction of Volokhivka. While progress is limited as a result of both Russian and Ukrainian blowing up of bridges, Russia appears to have very sophisticated machinery for the laying of pontoon bridges.

In the Kupyansk area, there is continuing Russia activity targeting and surrounding the settlement of Stepove Novoselivka. Russian forces continue to make advance into the center of Bilohorivka. In the town of Lyman there have been six significant explosions. Russian forces are active around Spirne and there are multi-pronged advances towards the settlement of Ivano-Darivka and other indications of Russian interest in crossing the Seversky-Donets river.

There are no reports of further progress on the ground in Chasiv Yar. To the south of Andrivka - recently retaken by Russian forces - there is increasing Russian activity on areas close to the combat line around Kurdiumivka and Ozarianivka, perhaps suggesting future advances towards Dyliivka to the west.

There is not much new to report elsewhere other than: Russian advances from Netailove, west of Avdiivka, further west to Karlivka; establishment of Russian control over Staramaiorske which must surely be a prelude to the fall as well of neighboring Urozhaine; further Russian advances in the Robotyne area which may suggest eventual movement towards Novodanivka and Orkhiv.

Palestine to Georgia and the Decline of the Neocon West

This section is an update of one in yesterday’s post. Israel has told ABC News that it killed two Hamas commanders in a strike on Rafah, which also killed 50 Palestinians and injured at least 249 others in a displaced persons camp on Sunday. Scenes of the carnage are horrific. Following, as it does, the order to Israel by the International Court of Justice to immediately implement a ceasefire in Gaza, and even as Israeli tanks reach the center of Rafah where its most potent “enemy” are hundreds of thousands of starving refugees, Sunday’s action confirms the utterly despicable moral decay of Israeli and Western leadership which will certainly play out much to Israel’s disadvantage in international legal proceedings, international transport, travel, trade, and goodwill around the world.

The complicity of Western leaders in a genocide that so far has taken over 36,000 lives, wounding over 72,000 and causing the unimaginable pain and suffering of innocents is in every moment further exposed to the consciences of the world.

Here is a press release from GIPRA today concerning action against European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen:

Call to the International Criminal Court to investigate on Ursula von der Leyen for complicity in war crimes and genocide committed by Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territories and in Gaza 27 May 2024, Geneva - On May 22, 2024, the Geneva International Peace Research Institute (GIPRI), the Collectif de Juristes pour le Respect des Engagements Internationaux de la France (CJRF) and a group of international concerned citizens, submitted a legal brief to the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) Karim Khan requesting the opening of an investigation against Ursula von der Leyen for complicity in war crimes and genocide against Palestinian civilians in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, including the Gaza Strip. This legal brief, endorsed by various human rights groups and prominent academics and experts in international criminal law, calls the Prosecutor to initiate investigations on the basis of the information provided against Mrs. Ursula von der Leyen. The latter has been repeatedly informed of violations of international humanitarian law committed in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, particularly in the Gaza Strip, through reports from international organizations and foreign governments. This is evidenced by a letter sent to her on February 14, 2024, by the President of the Spanish government, Pedro Sánchez, and the then Irish Prime Minister, Leo Varadkar. 1 Mrs Ursula von der Leyen is responsible for aiding and abetting the commission of crimes and violations of international humanitarian law, within the meaning of Article 25(3)(c) of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. Mrs von der Leyen enjoys no functional immunity before the International Criminal Court by virtue of Article 27 of the Rome Statute. The President of the European Commission is complicit in violations of Articles 6, 7 and 8 of the Rome Statute by her positive actions (military, political, diplomatic support to Israel) and by her failure to take timely action on behalf of the European Commission to help prevent genocide as required by the 1948 Genocide Convention. Mrs. Ursula von der Leyen cannot deny awareness of the plausibility of these crimes, especially following the International Court of Justice’s provisional measures order of 26 January 2024 in the pending ICJ case South Africa v. Israel. More importantly, Mrs. Von der Leyen has failed to take appropriate action to prevent such crimes, whereas the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide and the Statute of the International Criminal Court make prevention an erga omnes obligation.

The leader of Saudi Arabia, always courted by the US in the hope that the Saudis will somehow help it out from the morass of the US genocidal policy in Gaza, has instead decided to visit Iran, following the tragic death of former President Raisi, reminding the world of the Saudi reprochement with Iran and of the membership of both these countries in BRICS. Iran, meanwhile, is reported to be supplying a new generation of small, drone attached,guided bombs to Russia. Other signs of consolidation of BRICS power include Argentina’s dispatch of a delegation to Beijing; the collapse of the Swiss peace conference in a favor of a BRICS-led initiative (involving a meeting on Ukraine between China and Brazil) and, from Tbilisi, the news that a Georgian parliament committee today rejected the president’s veto of the “foreign agents” legislation (which is, essentially, a victory for those who want to put an end to Western “NGO” meddling in Georgia’s internal affairs merely by subjecting the NGO-regime-change-color-revolution-industrial commplex to transparency). This sets up the possibility of a vote of the full legislature on Tuesday to override President Salome Zourabichvili’s veto of the measure.

A majority of Georgians are fighting to avoid a repeat of the 2003 “rose revolution,” instigated by “pro-democracy,” foreign backed NGOs involving widespread protests over disputed parliamentary elections and which culminated in the resignation of President Eduard Shevardnadze.

In Armenia, the current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, a pro-western neocon, has distanced Armenia from its former sponsor, Russia, and actually returned a great deal of disputed territory (esp. Nagorno Karabakh) that Armenia prised away from Azerbaijan in a 1990s war. Azerbaijan is fostering much more cordial relations these days with Russia. Pashinyan’s regime is encountering riots against these policies in Yerevan and other parts of the country. These were sparked by the government’s return of even more territory to Azerbaijan, in this instances involving four border villages. The protest movement is lead by Bagrat Galstanyan, a high-ranking cleric in the Armenian Apostolic Church and archbishop of the Tavush diocese in Armenia’s northeast, where the returned villages are located. Galstanyan’s Tavush for the Homeland movement is promoting Galstanyan as the next prime minister. After Azerbaijan took full control of Karabakh, there was a flight o 120,000 mostly ethnic Armenians.

President Putin meanwhile is visiting Uzbekistan. I notice that Alexander Mercouris in his broadcast earlier today takes this as a sign of normality that suggests to him that Russia is not especially concerned about the attack on nuclear warning radar systems and that the damage caused is probably not extensive. All Russian officials are carrying on with their business as normal with no evidence of emergency meetings of the Security Council or anything similar. But if western cruise missiles, rather than drones, are used against such sensitive targets in the future then that would be escalation on an entirely different scale. These would be less capable of hitting targets as far east as Orsk, but there are plenty of sensitive targets in western Russia.

But for the moment, the Pentagon is coming down against the idea of giving Ukraine the green light for the use of cruise missiles against targets in Russia. European voices too are becoming more cautious about such a move or similar, as appears to be true of Hungary, Slovakia, Germany, Greece and Italy. Germany has said that it has reached the absolute limit to the aid it can provide to Ukraine. Perhaps enthusiasm for “project Ukrine” is waning. A booming economy in Russia (over 5% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024) is certainly raising question marks in the minds of many Western businesses which are having to pay energy bills that are 84% higher than they were before 2022. According to the Financial Times, some 2000 western companies have remained in Russia (as opposed to 1,600 that left or “scaled back'“); many that pulled out have been replaced by Chinese equivalents (or, as is suggested as a likelihood today by Mercouris) their operations are being managed locally on the understanding that assets will returned when the situation is normalized.

While we can hope that at the NATO meeting today, members will back off from the idea of greenlighting escalation to Ukraine, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is calling on the Biden administration to lift restrictions it has imposed on the use of long-range missiles supplied by the United States.