Iran's Faithful Promise
300 Projectiles, Including Ballistic
Iran has used its own Shaheed 136 drones over 1,100 miles to strike Israel for its operation yesterday, April 13, code-named,Faithful Promise, in addition to subsonic cruise and ballistic missiles (ranges of more than 500 kilometers, that can achieve hypersonic speeds, are difficult to shot down and most likely the missiles that hit Israeli air bases), mainly ground-to-ground but also from Iranian ships and from Iranian allies in the region, who have also mainly closed down their skies (including Iran and Israel themselves; with the possible exception of Jordan, which has declared a state of emergency). Some reports suggest that one of the ballistic missiles fired is capable of launching, in its final phase, a glide hypersonic projectile.
It is not clear whether or to what extent Iran used its air force. 300 missiles are said to have been fired, plus others by Iranian allies including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria, Iraqi militia, and Yemeni Houthis (which have made it much more difficult for Israel to retaliate). Some sources cite a total number of 1,000 projectiles. A number of Israeli air defenses have been hit and it looks like there were some major explosions over Israeli cities, and it does seem clear that many Iranian missiles did penetrate Israeli defenses, and did inflict significant damage to at least two Israeli air bases, despite Israeli and western mainstream media protestations to the contrary. We also know how frequently air defense missiles themselves cause damage to the territories they are supposedly protecting. The UK has been helping Israel with air defense: British fighter jets from Cyprus have helped with missile interception. But so far as we know the US has not been directly involved itself in the situation so far. (Correction: The Hill reports that the US has been assisting in missile intercepts).
The conflict so far has not involved ground operations.
Israeli claims to have shot down 99% of missiles should be treated with the same skepticism that meets similar claims from both Ukraine and Moscow when they experience drone and missile swarms. No Iranian assets have been hit to this point in time; no Iranian missile launchers or bases so far as we know, have been hit.
Ironically, a successful Israeli narrative of how the Iranian attacks were a comlete flop would help justify Israel in deciding not to escalate the conflict further, something which the least fanatical neocons of Washington would hope.
If the conflict continues we are into what is largely a missile and air defense war in which the party who has access to the most missiles and/or has the best air defenses, is the one who wins. We do not know at this point who has the most but we do know that Iran, together with its big power allies, have production capacity that far exceeds that of the collective West. For Israel, missiles are incredibly expensive (Israel reportedly fired an unsustainable $1 billion worth of air defense missiles in the past 24 hours), while for Iran these are inexpensive and dependent significantly on supplies or components from Russia (for whom Iran is also a significant source of drones) and China. Perhaps for every $1 billion spent by Israel in an attrition war, Iran might spend $300,000.
Furthermore, Israel must deal with the use of missiles from MLRS launchers by Iranian regional allies and proxies. This is why Israel has been bombing southern Lebanon to take out Hezbollah and Lebanese MLRS systems; but Hezbollah forces have regrouped and have resumed the bombing of northern Israel, requiring a very expensive Israeli air defense response.
Alexander Mercouris today, in his daily broadcast, considers that the events as they occurred do seem to justify the Financial Times advisory a day or two ago of secret understandings between the US, Israel and Iran: e.g. the three and a half hour advance warning of the drone attack; the concentration of targets on military installations and avoidance of civilian or even significant military casualties; the absence of attacks on Israeli diplomatic buildings in the Middle East or attacks on Israeli officials, although they did seize an Israeli-affiliated ship (something which Iran was at pains to say was not associated with Faithful Promise); and the absence of a significant Israeli response. Mercouris is doubtful about reports of Iran’s use of a hypersonic glide vehicle, given the high levels of technology, computing power and aeronautics data that this would require. If it had achieved that, then that would suggest assistance from Russia or China, both of which have exhibited hypersonic glide vehicles, extending to access to satellite surveillance. If the weapon did indeed exist, then it would be effective as an anti-ship missile suitable for attacking US aircraft carriers.
I am not sure about Mercouris’ reflections here; I wonder if the Financial Times’ article was too-clever Intelligence engineering to shield the USA and UK from revelations of their inability or unwillingness to control anything or anybody.
We should bear in mind that all this is happening at a time when Western stocks of missiles are under considerable pressure because of its proxy war with Russia over Ukraine; and now these stocks are under pressure to supply both Israel and Ukraine, although for some time now it seems that Washington Republicans are very divided as to the wisdom of supplying more aid to Ukraine. And if that aid is going to take the form of loans, I dont think that will make much difference to actual availability - or the lack thereof - of weaponry.
While the Iranian attacks have likely helped unify Iran, the factions in the collective West - the US and Europe - are widening, and there are doubts as to whether the Biden administration actually wants to help out Netanyahu at this stage. However it does seem that Biden has promised US support for Israel and provided US assistance in intercepts. Israel may decide to attack Iranian missile carriers in order to buy itself some time from a possible continuation of Iranian attacks. Iran, meantime, should now have a much better sense of Israeli strengths and weaknesses and of the location of Israeli air defense and offensive capabilities in which case, if Iran has decided that it is now engaged in an enduring war, then Iran needs to follow up its first attack with a second and third. However, the Financial Times article two days ago suggested that as a calibrated response, Iran is unlikely to continue the missile war if Israel now stands back. Shia Iran’s involvement does not appear to be motivated primarily by a concern for the plight of the Sunni and Christian Palestinians in Gaza.
Fortress Europe
The concept of a Fortress Europe acquired further muscle just recently with Finland’s closure of its entire border with Russia. Today, Andrew Korybko writes of a new shengen arrangement between Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, and Lithuania which makes it possible for German troops and tanks to travel across Europe to the border with Ukraine. Donald Tusk, whom Korybko tells us is in effect a German protege, is excusing this outrage to his people, who suffered so horribly at the hands of the Nazis, by falsely stirring up the phantom of a Russian threat to Poland by invading it from Ukraine. In fact, if Russia was so minded to invade, it could do so through Kaliningrad or Belarus. But this is all nonsense. More likely, in my view, Germany and Poland are readying themselves for the carve up of Western Ukraine. Germany, as it sinks economically, grows more boorish by the day, exemplified by German Defense Minister’s comparison of Putin to Hitler and Chancellor Sholz’s totally false allegation that it was Russia, not Europe itself, that was responsible for shutting off Russian oil and gas from Europe, as well as German proposals to further discriminate against Russians by not allowing them to fly across European airspace, together with Germany complicity in attempts to illegally seize Russian assets in Europe to put to use on behalf of Ukraine.
Battlefields; Offensives on Vuhledar and Siversk
There have been reports of Ukrainian drone and missile strikes (HIMARS, possibly ATACMS) on Russian artillery positions in towns such as Tokmak, even as Russia has made further modest advances in the Robotyne salient. General Syrsky, Ukrainian’s military commander, has admitted that the situation to the west of Avdiivka is very bad for Ukraine and considers that Chasiv Yar will fall in the forseeable future (he even specifies May 9, which seems too soon). Russians dominate the roads around the eastern sections of Chasiv Yar, east of the canal. Bohdanivka to the northeast is now fully under Russian control, facilitating a Russian move on Chasiv Yar from the north.
Zelenskiy has met with students in Kiev at which he spoke about the surrender to Russia of an entire Ukrainian unit in the Avdiivka area that has unsettled the position of other units in the area. This is likely to refer to reports of the surrender of a reduced battalion of 200 men of the 28th Airborne Division north of the village of Naitailove, west of Tonenke. Srysky is threatening to take measures to prevent desertions. Kiev may be laying on their miseries with a view to squeezing more aid out of the US and Europe. Germany has agreed to send another Patriot Air Defense system to Ukraine.
There has been another report of Ukrainian surrenders north of Pervomaiske, near Vodiane, when, according to the Russian MoD, they were not given permission to retreat from an impossible situation. Multiple sources confirm the entire fall of the settlement of Novomykhailivka, north east of Pervomaiske, as well as ground shaping by the Russian forces to encirle and soon to take Vuhledar. Similar developments are occurring to villages west and north of Siversk, including Bilohorivka and Vrymka. Russia is well advanced in Krasnohorivka near Marinka; has cleared most of Berdychi (north of Orlivka, west of Avdiivka), while north of Avdiivka, Russian forces are close to Ocheretyne and Novobakhmudivka and other positions to the north, with Russian forces pushing hard on Keramik.