Interim

My posts are likely to be very patchy over the next few days - up until July 5th.

There is a lot going on and a lot of things to watch out for. In the Middle East, a win by the Reformist candidate in Iran is looking likely. What impact this may have on relations with the US and Israel (and, in particular, with Russia with which Iran is close to finalizing a mutual security agreement) is difficult to determine but it might have implications for the level of Iranian support for Hezbollah in the event of an Israeli invasion but could even dampen Israel’s appetite for an invasion. In France a win by Le Pen may dramatically impact French enthusiasm for continuing intervention in Ukraine.

Trump’s hostility to the war in Ukraine together with signs of a dangerously rudderless US government that has no truly functioning or capable President is surely spooking Zelenskiy and will maximize tensions and fissures in Kiev.

In the battlefields, Russia is looking like it is moving into a phase of full throttle even as it finds itself engaged in major battles simultaneously like Vovchansk, Chasiv Yar, Siversk, West Avdiivka,Torersk and Vuhledar.

I am doubtful the UK election will make any change to the UK ruling class’ lust for the disintegration of Russia, a fanaticism comparable with of Lithuania and without almost as little military substance.