Intensification in NATO's Proxy War with Russia over Ukraine and with the Non-Western World

NATO Cyberwarfare as Pretext

As NATO continues to escalate its conflict with Russia over Ukraine by its insistence on its right to position intermediate nuclear weapons wherever it chooses (including, most dangerously, in Germany where German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, defence minister Boris Pistorius, and economy minister Habeck have announced the stationing of long-range US precision weapons, including hypersonic weapons, in Germany for the real if unstated purpose of direct military strikes against Moscow), it is also widening its options for wars of choice based on false flag incidents - with plans to recognize State-backed cyberattacks among the reasons why NATO members might reasonably trigger Article 5 (one for all, all for one). Kit Klarenburg recalls that among their armory of digital weapons, the CIA and western intelligence agencies can devise false digital attributions of responsibility for hacking as was disclosed by Edward Snowden and as almost certainly happened in the course of the Russiagate hoax when fictional entities such as Fancy Bear, leaving obvious but false clues of supposedly Russian origin, were accused of hacking the DNC servers.

Ukraine vs. Russia

Yet, in Ukraine, even The Economist, a once unabashed supporter of the West’s proxy war, now writes of disillusioned Ukrainian army wives and disiullusioned soliders:

“Some soldiers said they felt increasingly alienated from the generals, politicians and ordinary people continuing with their lives far from the front. “Everyone here thinks we are serfs deceived,” wrote one. “The trenches are empty and there are no healthy people eligible for fighting. My brothers-in-arms have the same feelings. It is a social and political failure. A military one will follow.” A number have complained about their peers who have fled to Europe”.

A Chatham House assessment of Russian plans for military regeneration, published on July 9th, concludes that Russia remains able simultaneously to continue to prosecute the war and to effect wartime adaptations to its command structure. With varying degrees of success, the Kremlin has been able to rapidly mobilize reservists, employ private military companies, sustain military-industrial production for basic systems, and heavily militarize the public information space in support of the war. In addition to wartime adaptations in the command structure, the military industry has displayed resilience in its ability to deliver military equipment and hardware in the war against Ukraine. The current Kremlin leadership, in the judgment of Chstham House, will remain a threat to European and transatlantic security as well as a strategic competitor to NATO and its allies.

On the matter of sanctions, a Foreign Policy article by Eugene Rumer notes that European Union and U.S. companies have pulled out around 40 percent of their Russian assets since February 2022. Foreign assets worth around $194 billion are still in Russia. Of these assets, $32 billion worth are owned by U.S. companies, while $90 billion belong to European companies. The corporate exodus of around 1,000 foreign companies from Russia since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine has cost them more than $107 billion in write-downs and lost revenue. It’s also almost impossible for Western businesses to send the profits made in Russia back to their headquarters.

The Battlefields

Dima of the Military Summary channel earlier today reports what he sees as an upcoming war for air superiority over Ukraine between the Western supplied F-16s due to arrive in Ukraine any time now, and Russian MiG-31s. The first batch of repaired and modernized MiG-31s has been delivered. A good many more are anticipated to follow. In addition, Russia will deploy MiG-31s with R-37 missiles which have a range of up to 300 kilometers.

Western fighters and other hardware are accumulating in Western Ukraine in anticipation of further major assaults on Crimea. These include Global Hawks and Western fighter jets, showing that Russia’s warning to the West concerning Western drones and fighters over the Black Sea have gone unheeded.

In the Briansk/Sumy region, Ukrainian forces have been FPV droning Russian warehouses, communications and energy systems along the border. These could be indicative of a Ukrainian anticipation of a Russian offensive, or of a Ukrainian offensive into Russia. In Kharkiv, clashes continue around Hlyboke, and there is evidence of a Ukrainian pincer effort in the direction of Russian-held Staryitzia. There are gathering Ukrainian concentrations west of Vovchansk while Russia appears to be adding territory in the Buhruvatka-Prylipka forested area. Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian forces in the east of Vovchansk and is continuing to make slow headway in the southern zone south of the Volcha river, while in the southern cone of the northern sector it is Ukrainian forces that are having some success.

In Kupyansk area, Russia has made advances on Kurylivka and the Oskil river, and controls 30% of Makiivka, on the Russian side of the Zerebets river. There continue to be Russian attacks on and advances towards Lyman and Siversk, but Ukrainian forces have for some time now been making progress in the Kreminna forest area previously controlled by Russia. The situation in Chasiv Yar appears to be one of “operational pause,” while Russia is still attempting to remove a Ukrainian bridgehead towards Klishchiivka, east of the Kanal. A little further south in the Toretsk area Russian forces are making headway along the railroads and are making gains in the built-up area of Pivnikhane, and are bombing the high-rise area of Toretsk, having entered the eastern sector of this settlement. Russians forces have advanced on Zalizne and Niu-York and have already begun to move further west towards Okelsandropil and Valentynivka.

In the Avdiivka area, Russian forces are now within 500 meters of Prohres and may have already captured Yevhenivka, west of Sokil. Russian pincers are tightening around Novoselivka Persha which lies between Russian-held Novopokrovsk to the north and Umanske to the south. The battle of Krasnohoriivka, after many months, appears close to completion in Russian favor with only another 700 meters to go in the northwestern sector, although Ukrainian forces have staged a counter attack to the southwestern end of the settlement, perhaps for evacuation purposes. Russia has taken Urozhaine and is moving northwards.

Iran Northwards and Eastwards

In response to my recent assessment of the significance of the Iranian presidential elections, I note that the new Iranian president, Pezeshkian, has stated in Tehran Times that “Russia is a valued strategic ally and neighbor to Iran and my administration will remain committed to expanding and enhancing our cooperation.” This strongly suggests that Pezeshkian will remain steadfast to Iran’s new welcome within the BRICS community and, I suspect, can be counted on if necessary to face off against Israel and the US in the event of any further regional escalation of war. He writes:

The U.S. and its Western allies, not only missed a historic opportunity to reduce and manage tensions in the region and the world, but also seriously undermined the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by showing that the costs of adhering to the tenets of the non-proliferation regime could outweigh the benefits it may offer. Indeed, the U.S. and its Western allies have abused the non-proliferation regime to fabricate a crisis regarding Iran's peaceful nuclear program - openly contradicting their own intelligence assessment - and use it to maintain sustained pressure on our people, while they have actively contributed to and continue to support the nuclear weapons of Israel, an apartheid regime, a compulsive aggressor and a non-NPT member and a known possessor of illegal nuclear arsenal. 

Türkiye Northwards and Eastwards

Equally welcome is the outcome of the recent meeting in Astana of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and what it has to tell us about relations between Türkiye, Russian and China. Conor Gallagher reports that in Astana, Erdoğan made clear Türkiye’s opposition to escalation with Russia and to US support for Israel. Domestic opposition in Türkiye is overwhelmingly against Israel and the US, while the US continues to support Türkiye’s Kurdish enemies in Syria and amidst increasing challenges with Syrian refugees in Türkiye.

Ankara is facing fresh sanctions threats from the US which wants to sabotage Türkiye’s collaboration with Russian nuclear energy company Rosatom in the construction of Türkiye’s only nuclear power plant. Rosatom financed and is building this plant that would provide roughly 10 percent of Türkiye’s energy needs once completed. The US is trying to force Türkiye to deal with American companies for the building of reactors, despite a host of problems they entail. In defiance, Türkiye remains in talks with Russia for a second nuclear power plant, as well as with China for a third plant.

The SCO sees a role in becoming the security provider to the Eurasian continent. Its members include Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India, Pakistan, Iran and Belarus. Afghanistan and Mongolia are observer states, and  there are 14 dialogue partners SCO represents 42 percent of the world’s population, 80 percent of the Eurasian landmass, and accounts for one-third of world’s GDP, roughly $6 trillion more than the EU. Türkiye would be a logical future member, as the world’s 18th most populous country which enjoys a customs union agreement with the EU that currently makes it an attractive point to get around tariffs or sanctions. Turkish trade with the SCO nations has increased 85% in five years.

On Syria, Erdogan appears intent on mending fences with the Assad regime, withdrawing its forces from Idlib and doing what it can in support of Syrian efforts to prise the US-Kurdish out of control of northwestern Syria. But there is much yet to negotiate.

Palestine and the Houthis

Israeli atrocities in Gaza and in the West Bank have picked up, with several hundred Paestinian civilians murdered and wounded over the weekend, together with other egregious war crimes that include the destruction of a UN School and the headquarters of the UNRWA. Kevin Reed refers to the Gaza Health Ministry as reporting on Sunday that the Israeli military has killed hundreds and injured 400 others in multiple airstrikes on the Palestinian enclave since Saturday. In one of the deadliest attacks of the nine-month Gaza genocide, a massive airstrike hit an area designated as a humanitarian zone at al-Mawasi on Saturday, killing 92 and wounding 300. Palestinians had fled to the coastal town in southern Gaza near Khan Younis and Rafah to shelter, mostly in tents and with few basic services or supplies.

There is no real relief from any source, not the UN, not the International Court of Justice, not the International Criminal Court, not the Arab world, not the Islamic world, not from Western liberals and leftists. Only words, and a bit of aid the distribution of which Israel impedes. This is the most terrible condemation of our generation and its embrace of fascism. Stories of huge importance such as the admission by Haaretz newspaper that over half of those killed in Israel on October 7th were Israelis killed by the IDF under the “Hannibal directive,” and The Lancet’s low-ball calculation of the real number of deaths in Gaza occasioned by the Israeli genocide as 186,000 (John Mearsheimer has said recently that this could very likely be 250,000) - while widely talked about in the world of alternative media - have so far been acknowledged in only four western mainstream media outlets.

The complicity in this slaughter of the US, particurly, and the collective West in general is beyond reasonable question. In a recent piece, Phil Giraldi asks:

How is it possible that organizations that are committed to financially supporting war crimes and even genocide by a foreign nation are allowed to have tax breaks that enable them to collect more money which in turn helps them to corrupt the system that feeds them while also empowering those foreign militaries? How is it possible that the foreign army carrying out the war crimes is also allowed to benefit directly from the US laws that have created exemption from taxation? In short, is there no sense of responsibility and/or consequences on the part of American government when it comes to the behavior of the pariah apartheid Jewish state?

He finds that both Trump and Biden are Israeli puppets making Israel and its all-powerful billionaire funded lobby indisputably in control of many key aspects of American government beyond the obviously targeted foreign policy, with the aid and assistance of the media and entertainment indusgtries that shape the Israeli preferred narrative at all times. This is the context in Natanyahu arrival on July 24 when he will address a joint session of Congress. Yet United States as a country gets absolutely nothing out of this. On the contrsary, benefits to the tune of more than a billion dollars a month (when all things are factored in_, not to mention special donations like the $14 billion recently approved by Congress for Israel’s war flow to the coffers of genocidal maniacs. Geraldi notes the 501(c)(3) non-profits set up in New York City and in Massachusetts which exist to provide funds to the Israeli army. One of the conduits is Friends of the Israel Defense Forces (FIDF), based in New York but with twenty branches in the US. The money contributed is federal income tax exempt and most of the donors are able to write the contributions off on their own federal taxes as an inducement to give.

Israeli threats to Hezbollah and Lebanon have further stirred the opposition of Ansar Allah, known in the West as the Houthis, which considers any Israeli or U.S. attack on Hezbollah as an attack on Yemen itself.Their response will involve targeting US and Israeli assets in the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. Ahmed Abdulkareem writes today that:

The group also plans to target Washington and London’s interests across the Middle East and, if needed, to deploy battle-hardened ground troops to conflict zones. These fighters, alongside thousands of partisans from Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, India, and some Arab Gulf countries, have pledged to liberate Israeli-occupied areas of northern Palestine. A high-ranking source in Ansar Allah stated that the organization is prepared to send fighters to any country, whether to defeat Israel, liberate Palestinian lands, or defend any Arab country, including Lebanon.

The Yemeni army recently revealed that they possess hypersonic missiles and have begun to deploy them after launching production lines. In addition they claim to have an advanced unmanned surface vessel (USV), colloquially known as a drone boat, equipped with warheads that they say are capable of sinking merchant and military vessels. The Houthis have a willing ally in Russia which has threatened to supply weapons to US enemies in retaliation for the deployment of Western missiles against Russian assets in Russia. On the debit side, it faces a Saudi Arabia that spent many years in a proxy war with Yemen but which may yet be persuaded to join the forces of multipolarity and the Global South, through BRICS of which it is now a member.