Ignition Points
Several ignition points blinking in the red zone today. What are the chances that not one of them alights?
In no order of importance:
Successful Hezbollah attack on prestige Israeli Golani brigade south of Haifa on the night of Sunday October 13. Israel says four to six dead, 60 wounded. Given total lack of trustworthiness of any such statements from Israel, the numbers are probably considerably higher. Reports of shock across Israel that maybe their government of deranged Zionist fanatics has not been totally honest with them about it claims is Israel’s great success in Lebanon (where more IDF are being killed, almost certainly, than Hezbollah).
Israel’s extreme provocations against UNIFIL positions in Southern Lebanon, along with petulant demands from Netanyahu that the UN removes them, forces the UN either to look totally pathetic and redeploy, or to take actual measures to guarantee peace which is what the UN is supposed to do, while protecting itself by force as necessary. I am not putting money on any prolonged display of guts on the part of the UN.
US announcement that it will send a THAAD missile system and 100 soldiers to Israel does not sound to me a very convincing US commitment to the protection of Israel from what may or may not be another Iranian strike, presumably following a much anticipated Israeli strike on Iran.
Iran does not appear to be contemplating a pre-emptive attack against an almost certain Iranian strike against Iran. Is Iran really prepared? Perhaps not. Behind the smiles during Putin’s recent meeting with Pezeshkian and despite the upcoming signing of a mutual defense treaty, one wonders whether there is a certain Russian coolness, and that perhaps Russia still has to supply the much-touted S-400 missile defense systems. If Russia is trying to hold Iran back, is it possible that Russia is able to exercise more meaningful pressure on Israel than can the US? I
Is Iran working at speed on its first nuclear weapon? Is Shoigu helping out?
Dima this morning refers to reports of a Russian attack on a Ukrainian drone making facility in Transnistria even as reports swirl of a planned Ukrainian strike on Russian peace-keeping forces (numbered about 1,000) in Transnistria. Any such bid by Ukraine may run into trouble with Moldova (in a strongly-contested election season), and may provide further encouragement to Russia to move on Odessa from which Russian forces may more easily more to Transnistria. Russian bombing and drone attacks against the entirety of Ukraine, meanwhile, have intensified in recent days. These include strikes on civilian shipping. The ships are said to fly the flags of remote Global South countries. In my view these are more likely to be flags of covenience and that they are being used to supply missiles to Ukraine. The West claims that Russia has reignited its opposition to the Ukrainian grain export trade. I think this is highly unlikely, especially in advance of the BRICS summit. Also, many reports suggest that the ships are only being attacked as they enter Ukrainian ports, not as they are leaving them.
Dima also reports this morning claims from Ukraine that Russia is using troops from North Korea. I think this is highly unlikely. The rumor is probably being supported by Ukraine in an attempt to convince NATO to put (more NATO) forces on the ground in Ukraine. Russia has already announced its plans to increase its forces to a total strength of 1.5 million men. Ukraine is also attempting to restart its failed new mobilization plan. To do what? Perhaps to strike Belarus? Or, Briansk? Or, once again, for attempts on Crimea. The farce of Kursk makes it impossible to take any such threats from Ukraine at this time, as Zelenskiy returns home from Europe, wined and dined but with his begging-bowl still empty.
China is engaging in a timely show of military force around Taiwan as a response to the latest statement in support of the island’s sovereignty (by law, it is not sovereign) from its President. A good time for a show of Chinese strength as the US loses its war against Russia, and struggles unconvincingly to control its proxy Israel in the Middle East as Netanyahu does everything he can to lure the US into fighting a war against Iran. Meanwhile in Jordan, Jordanian Palestinians sustain their weekly protests against a repressive, corrupt and complicit Hashemite regime that every day more must fear its coming demise.