Hearsula Vonder(mentally) Lying's 17th

The Packet

The EU last week approved a fresh package of sanctions on Russia, particularly focusing on the clamping down on Russia’s "shadow" oil fleet. This includes blacklisting of some 200 oil tankers used to circumvent curbs on Russian oil exports. The sanctions adding dozens of Russian officials to the nearly 2,400 people and entities already facing visa bans and asset freezes. Companies in countries including Vietnam, Serbia and Turkey accused of helping supply goods to the Russian military are also targetted in third-party sanctions.

To clear up any confusion as to the direction in which European hysteria is driving the world, Russia has just detained an oil tanker after it left an Estonian port for the Baltic Sea (or, as it is better known, the "NATO lake."). Russia detained the Liberia-flagged Green Admire after it allegedly crossed into Russian territorial waters which had been previously agreed upon. The incident came within days after Tallinn tried to intercept a vessel suspected of being part of Russia's sanctions-busting "shadow fleet."

More sanctions may follow if Russia doesn't agree to a 30-day ceasefire proposal backed by the United States. The indications at present are that this proposal is effectively in abeyance.

This is the 17th such EU package since the beginning of the SMO in 2022. Two countries still need to consult their own parliaments, but European media sources indicate that the package is expected to be adopted tomorrow by the bloc's foreign ministers.

It is unclear whether the EU will proceed if the US declines to add its own sanctions. For the moment, I judge it unlikely that the US will back new European sanctions or add more to its own.

The Phone-Call

Following the Trump-Putin phone-call at 10:00 Eastern today, the BBC reported that President Putin says Russia is prepared to discuss "compromises" on Ukraine after a "frank" phone call with Donald Trump, and that following the call, Putin said "we simply must determine the most effective ways of moving towards peace.”

According to Trump on Truth Social conditions for a ceasefire will be a negotiation between Ukraine and Russia "because they know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of.” The US president says the "tone and spirit of the conversation were excellent.” He also believes the call went "very well", adding that "Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a ceasefire and, more importantly bring and end to the war".

Well, yes, we kind of knew that because last Friday, after a week of pure farce and theatre from Kiev, Russian and Ukrainian delegations did meet in Istanbul and agreed to meet again in June. The Russian and Ukrainian delegations agreed to exchange prisoners of war - 1,000 for 1,000, and also, and perhaps more importantly, to present their vision of a possible future ceasefire, spelling it out in detail, and to continue the negotiation process.

Putin has on many occasions spelt out its “vision” already, notably on June16 2024, and readers here will be very familiar with the main points: international recognition of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zapporizhzhia as Russian; Ukrainian neutrality (no pathway whatsoever to NATO or to a NATO lookalike security guarantee); a cap on Ukrainian forces; no foreign forces on Ukrainian soil, no supplies of weapons and intelligence to Ujkraine; dismemberment of the Banderite neonazi agencies; respect and protection of Russian speakers, the Russian Orthodox Church and Russian culture in Ukraine.

Ukraine has all along talked about a ceasefire along the current lines of contact as the precondition for talks. Russia, as its chief negotiator in Istanbul has pointed out, has historically continued fighting even as negotiations proceed (and there is nothing remotely unusual about that). Judging from Kremlin comments, the only way in which Russia might accept a ceasefire now - but I don’t consider this certain - is if Ukraine withdrew all troops from the four oblasts in Eastern Ukraine.

As to the overall significance of today’s phone-call, I don’t believe that Russia has actually made any concessions whatsoever. We may expect that the phone-call may have helped impress upon Trump the constancy of Russia’s positions and helped him understand why this is. We may see enough substance in it to justify to both Russia and the US the wisdom of continuing to talk, even as there is a commitment to further talks between Russia and Ukraine.

The ultimate outcome, I suspect, will be the virtual capitulation by Ukraine; a stronger relation between the US and Russia; the overall humiliation of Europe’s current brood of chicken licken leaders; and a crumbling of both the EU and of NATO. But to get to that point we may have to wait to see how Russia’s current offensive develops between now and the fall.

Friday Negotiation

I should note in passing that in meeting with the Russian delegation last Friday, Ukraine actually did what it said it would not do: enter into negotiations before a ceasefire. It also entered into negotiation without first lifting Zelenskiy’s 2022 decree that forbids any negotiation between Ukrainians and the Putin administration in Russia.

These two “concessions” may be interpreted as indications of the desperation of Ukraine to secure Trump’s approval in the hope he will keep up the flow of US weapons and intelligence. The issue of the decree, however, is very problematic because it undermines the legitimacy of the delegation and of any agreement or signature that might be reached. Inevitably, Russia will insist on a correction to this situation.

At the same time we can acknowledge that Russia did enter into negotiation and that it did so before Ukraine withdrew any troops from those parts of the four eastern oblasts that Russia does not yet occupy. Medinsky, head of the Russian delegation warned the Ukraine delegation, however, that the more time that elapses between now and a final outcome the greater Russia’s demands might become, perhaps even escalating up to 8 oblasts as opposed to the current 5. He reminded his interlocuters of Russia’s successful defeat of Sweden at the Battle of Poltava in 1709, a critical episode in the 21 years Great Northern War 1700-1721, in which Sweden had benefitted from British and French support.

On the question of Ukrainian neutrality, there are indications that Russia is looking st the 1955 Austrian Neutrality Treaty as a possible model. Austria is not allowed to join NATO, but is a member of the European Union. Increasingly, in my view, membership of NATO has become a requirement for membership of the European Union, so I think there are limited to the applicability of the Austrian treaty to the current situation.

The Kremlin

According to Russia’s news agency TASS this morning (Pacific Coast Time), Russian President Vladimir Putin has told the media that his telephone conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump lasted more than two hours.

"It was very substantive and very frank, and on the whole, in my opinion, in this regard, very useful.”

The Kremlin said that it was "an important conversation in the wake of the talks held in Istanbul."

"Russia is ready and will continue to work with the Ukrainian side on a memorandum on a potential future peace treaty outlining a number of positions, such as, for instance, settlement principles, the timeframe for signing a potential peace agreement, and so on, including a potential ceasefire for a certain period in case relevant agreements are reached," he told reporters after a phone call with US President Donald Trump.”

Behold a Pale Horse

Talking of Hearsula Von Der Leyen, I cannot resist the religious symbolism (Pale Horse):

“The pale horse that Death rides is of a sickly, corpse-like color. Some translations of Revelation 6:8 describe Death riding “an ashen (pale greenish gray) horse” (AMP) or “a pale green horse” (CSB). In this chilling scene, slaughter is personified as the earth experiences unparalleled, terrifying calamities. It is the Day of the Lord, and “who can endure the day of his coming? Who can stand when he appears?” (Malachi 3:2).

To the eternal praise of Jesus, believers will triumph even over the rider of the pale horse: “‘Death has been swallowed up in victory.’ ‘Where, O death, is your victory? Where, O death, is your sting?’” (1 Corinthians 15:54–55).”

So what is Leyen Lyin’ about? She is a firm advocate, first and foremost, of the proxy war between Russia and the West. The “West” has been the US and Europe up until now, but could be reduced to just Europe in a few days if Trump “walks away,” and if “walking away” actually means anything. It could very well mean a pullout of some or even all US troops from Europe.

This is a war, of course, of false pretext, and Leyen must surely know this. By persisting with the extreme rhetoric with which this pretext has been articulated (never less shrilly than from Poland and the Baltics) she may have helped create the reality which she, the COBD (coalition of the brain-dead) and others whom Putin generously describes as “idiots,” say they fear. For now we have German Chancellor Merzant Bank (sorry, just Merz will do) embrace the rearmament of Germany, sadly foregrounding Gorbachev’s major error in ever agreeing to the reunification of Germany in return for a deceptive agreement on the part of his interlocuters - one which Gorbachev foolishly failed to get in writing - that NATO would not move one meter further eastwards.

Leyen’s real agenda may have been to strengthen the EU, and to acquire for it the power to raise money and to create its own army. That agenda does not seem to have worked out very well. Not least because of Russia’s move to bring EuroClear, holder of $200-300 billion frozen Russian assets, to court in Hong Kong. If successful, and it may very well be, this may stymie European ambitions to continue the war with Russia for a few months longer, at least, given that it may be fighting or helping Ukraine fight without US military support.

Yes, there are some developments this week that may bolster EU unity in the short term. First off is the suspicious victory of Bucharest Mayor Nicursor Dan over George Simeon in the second round of Romania’s presidential election of Sunday (Dan himself says there is no malpractice). This followed an EU-backed Romanian intelligence operation to shut down the first attempt at elections last year. Zelenskiy calls Dan “reliable,” which is all re really need to know. Then there is the success of Tusk’s deputy Trzaskowski, in the first round of presidential elections in Poland. Note thst Tusk’s agends has been crimped by current President Duda. And, finally, the return to power in Portugal of prime minister Luis Montenegro.

But in the long term, European unity seems increasingly fragile in the face of the possible re-emergence (borrowing from hedge fund money) of Germany as Europe’s supreme military power - something that must eventually seem very threatening to much of Europe, including Poland, some of whose territory Germany covets, and threatening to the world as a whole.

The sanity of Orban and Fico with respect to the war with Russia (I dont say they are sane on everything - clearly not, given Orban’s vomit-inducing tolerance of Netanyahu to whom his country supplied $16 million of arms in 2024) will have been vindicated and probably reinforced by Italy’s Meloni, while across Europe the phenomenon of what mainstream media call the New “far fight” - including AfD in Germany and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally - will erupt violently against attempts to suppress their populist threat.

This “new” European “far right” is often chastized, I think unfairly, for its opposition to immigration. I say “unfairly,” because I think that the citizens of any country have a right to expect that their governments will maintain a highly regulated control over national borders. This is a foremost duty of security, but one that EU propaganda has successfully undermined in the name of freedom of movement. In my post yesterday I provided an example of how this right has been abused in Ireland, and we have seen how, in the case of Chancellor Angela Merkel in Germany, citizens were made to pay for their goverment’s recklessless in support of Western and NATO regime-change operations form Libya and Syria to Ukraine.

None of this justifies cruelty to the oppressed and helpless. Are there other ways in which Europe’s new Right parties are objectionable? Almost certainly. But how much more objectionable are they compared to the nonsensical crimes of the so-called Centrist parties? With a “Center” like these, who needs the far Right? These, like the ones that lord it over the coalition of the brain-dead (i.e. Coalition of the Willing), persist in a war that has cost well over a million lives - many more Ukrainian than Russian, by the way, no matter what Trump says he believes: in body exchanges, Ukrainian cadavers outnumber Russia 25:1) - and which is impoverishing them for US advantage. This is a war they are fighting without one ounce of necessity, honesty, integrity while in the meantime they actively collude in or hide their faces from horrific war-crimes in Gaza, especially, the West Bank, Syria and Lebanon, or others that Israel and Turkey, in their original backing for neo-ISIS in Syria are enabling

Oliver Boyd-Barrett is Professor Emeritus of Bowling Green State University in Ohio and of California State University. His books include The International News Agencies; Le Trafic des Nouvelles (co-authored with Michael Palmer), Contra-Flow in Global News (co-authored with Daya Thussu), The Globalization of News (co-editor with Terhi Rantenan, and contributor), Communications Media, Globalization and Empire (editor and contributor), News Agencies in the Turbulent Era of the Internet (editor and contributor); Hollywood and the CIA (with David Herrera and Jim Baumann); Media Imperialism; Interfax: Breaking into Global News; Western Mainstream Media and the Ukraine Crisis; Media Imperialism: Continuity and Change (with Taneer Mirrlees, eds.); RussiaGate and Propaganda: Disinformation in the Age of Social Media; Conflict Propaganda in Syria: Narrative Battles; RussiaGate Revisited: Aftermath of a Hoax (with Stephen Marmura, editors, and contributors). Just published in 2025 is Propaganda, Communication and Empire: Western Intervention in Afghanistan (with Sumanth Inukonda and Lara Lengel, editors and contributors). In preparation for 2026: The Sage Handbook of News Agencies (co-editor with Pedro Aguiar and Christian Vukasovich).