Iran to Retaliate Against Israel
I regard Alastair Crooke, interviewed every Monday by Judge Napolitano, as one of the best informed sources on the West Asian crisis. After a couple of weeks’ debate inside and outside of alternative media frameworks, it is important to note that Crooke retains his initial assessment of the Israeli attack on Iran of October 26th which is that Israel did very little damage to Iranian facilties. He believes that Iran will retaliate, as it threatened, and that this retaliation will be painful to Israel because real pain is obviously necessary if the US and Israel are to fully understand that Iran does have deterrence power, and begin to extend to Iran a necessary respect.
As I have been at pains to point out in recent posts, the longer it takes for Iran to inflict this projected pain, the more grotesque and unspeakably awful is Israeli Western-back Zionist policies of genocide in Gaza and the West Bank. Following the methodology of the Lancet we shoud take it as read that the war has so far killed and wounded at least 200,000 people and I suspect that is a low estimate. But of course, an all-out war between the Israel/US combo and Iran could quickly consume just as many if not many more lives.
Sources like Crooke encourage us to elevate our preconceptions as to Iranian military strength and ingenuity, propelled in large measure by its battle for survival against Western economic warfare. Persistent stories of gas shortages in Iran, if they are not simply neoliberal propaganda, and they may be, suggest a correction in favor of realism. Gas need not be related to military strength but is surely related to both industrial and residential calibration of priorities.
Iranian Gas
This from Khatinoglu for Iran International, last August, for example Khatinogulu:
“Iran's summer power crisis, which cut electricity to industries by half and caused widespread blackouts, has now led to urgent warnings about a severe gas shortage this winter…
“During the summer, Iran faces a 14,000-megawatt (MW) electricity shortage, while in the winter, it struggles with a daily gas deficit of 250 million cubic meters (Mcm/d). These shortages cost the country's industries at least $8 billion annually. While Iran ranks second after Russia in terms of gas reserves, holding 34 trillion cubic meters, it has not developed new fields. Additionally, its largest gas-producing field, South Pars, has experienced a pressure drop and a decline in productivity…
“Due to the lack of growth in renewable energy, the extent of electricity and gas shortages in Iran has spread to all seasons in recent years. The peak of the electricity imbalance, however, occurs in the summer, while the peak of the gas shortage happens in the winter…
“About three-fourths of Iran’s gas is produced from the South Pars field, which is shared with Qatar. According to Iran's Ministry of Petroleum, this field has entered its second half-life since last year, and with the ongoing pressure drop, gas production from South Pars will decrease by 10 bcm per year starting this year.
“This decline will significantly impact Iran's overall gas production and contribute to the growing energy shortage in the country.
“South Pars accounts for over 40% of Iran’s gas reserves, and while the Islamic Republic could somewhat increase its gas production by developing new fields, the investment in the upstream oil and gas sector has been insufficient. Over the past few years, the average annual investment in this sector in Iran has only been $3 billion, which is half of what it was in the early years of the previous decade and one-seventh of the 2000s.
“Additionally, 80% of Iran’s active oil fields are in their second half-life and lose 8 to 12% of their production annually. The government's current focus is on developing new oil fields to prevent a decline in crude oil production and exports, leaving gas projects as a lower priority”.
Untrustworthy Western Media Crisis Coverage
Crooke correctly debunks the weekend story that Trump had called Putin to tell him not to escalate in Ukraine. The extreme unlikelihood of Trump doing any such thing or even believing that it would produce any worthwhile result (and which, had he done, would constitute the very kind of interference in foreign policy by a team that is not yet in formal transition mode - something that cannot take place under after the vote of the electoral college - which formed the basis of a criminal charge against national security advisor Michael Flynn in 2016) should have been apparent to any competent journalist, especially to a Reuters or a Washington Post journalist. It should not have been given any air.
Equally unfounded is the silly story of an Iranian assassination plot, supposedly involving three Iranians, none of whom is in the US, a plot that would never conceivably have been approved by the Iranian administration, and yet which is so routinely possible for US law enforcement authorities to conjure up from nowhere at political request, just as they did over Russiagate and countless domestic “terrorists.”
And then we have this report from Blumenthal and Reed at The Grayzone about the real perpetrators of violence this last weekend in Amsterdam: F
“Footage by a teenage YouTuber shows Tel Aviv Maccabi hooligans attacking Dutch police while pelting private homes with stones and hunting victims with metal pipes. The video offers the clearest evidence yet Israeli ultras provoked the violence which gripped the city (Grayzone)”.
For The World Socialist Web Site, Alex Lantier (Lantier) confirms the deception which, he writes, was a Big Lie concocted to justify a police crackdown on mass opposition to genocide and war in Europe. The violence was a provocation coordinated by forces in the Israeli regime and the far-right Dutch government led by Geert Wilders.
“Maccabi Tel Aviv hooligans are notorious for their racism and close ties to the Israeli state and armed forces. The club has never had an Arab player, and the Israeli regime uses its hooligans, like the “La Familia” hooligans of Beitar Jerusalem, to attack protests in Israel…Before the Maccabi-Ajax game, the Jerusalem Post and De Telegraaf reported that Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, would escort Maccabi fans to Amsterdam. Analysis of pictures of the Maccabi fans shows some are in fact members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF)”.
The New York Times has had to admit civic leaders’ conclusions that Israeli fans stoked anger in the city’s Muslim population by chanting incendiary and racist slogans, including declaring that there were “no children” in Gaza anymore, and by defiling the Palestinian flag and vandalizing the cab.
The Wilders governmentm allowed all the Maccabi Tel Aviv hooligans to leave the country and is carrying out mass arrests of those suspected of having fought the Maccabi hooligans. On Friday, 62 were arrested. Dozens more were arrested yesterday at a protest Amsterdam authorities banned.
“The French government is creating conditions to repeat the Amsterdam provocation. Macron has maintained that the November 14 game between the French and Israeli football teams at the Stade de France in Saint-Denis will be held. French officials claim that in order to oppose antisemitism, Israeli fans must march through this largely Muslim working class suburb of Paris, guarded by 4,000 heavily-armed French riot police and Mossad agents Netanyahu has pledged to send. These are not operations to defend Jews or oppose antisemitism, but far-right provocations to justify repressing mass opposition to genocide and war.”
Hasbara
Western mainstream have shown themselves beyond the pail, especially in this interregnum between Biden and Trump and it is no wonder that their credibility is now perceived by Americans as lower, even, than that which they extend to congressional representatives.
With particular reference to the ways in which Western mainstream media allow themselves to be manipulated by Israeli PR machinery, the word Hasbara comes to mind. Writing for the New Arab, Sam Hamad (New Arab) says that it roughly translates to "explaining" in English, sharing much in common with other forms of modern propaganda, but often considered a description of the more granular, event-by-event distortions and fabrications utilised by the Israeli state to justify its controversial actions and policies.
On his Substack account today, Kit Klarenberg suggests that the demolition by alternative media of the lies spun by Israeli intelligence of the events of October 7th has also demolished the reign of Hasbara:
“Were it not for diligent sleuthing by MintPress News, The Grayzone, Electronic Intifada and many others, egregious slanders peddled by the Zionist entity from the Gaza genocide’s inception - such as Hamas committing mass rape or beheading infants - might never have been comprehensively incinerated, and still today serve as “context” for Israel’s annihilation of Palestinians. Meanwhile, untold numbers of concerned citizens online have energetically rebutted Western narratives on the conflict in real-time, each and every day. This may have helped foment backlash in mainstream newsrooms.
“It is a deeply poetic justice that the same techniques of information warfare perfected under Hasbara’s auspices have been turned on the Zionist entity and its public defenders. These methods allowed Israel to get away with its slow motion erasure of the Palestinian people over many decades, with at least tacit consent from Western populations. Those days are over, and never returning. Israel’s former propaganda targets and victims can now beat Zionists at their own game, with the most potent forces of all on their side - truth, and justice”.
Israel Aggression Against Lebanon
The following is a statement issued Oct. 23, 2024, by the International Association of Democratic Lawyers about Israel’s aggression against Lebanon.
Israel has been attacking Lebanon since 1948, the year it was accepted as a member of the United Nations, and its aggression is renewed each time under the pretext of self-defense. Between 1948 and 1973, Israel committed more than 2,500 acts of aggression against Lebanon. The United States and NATO countries participate in Israel’s aggression by providing it with deadly, internationally banned weapons, and there exists a joint military operations room.
The Israeli self-defense claim not only violates the United Nations Charter, which in Article 51 outlines the conditions for resorting to force—conditions Israel does not respect, as evident in statements by Israeli officials, particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He declared his intention to redraw the Middle East and presented his map before the U.N. General Assembly. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant also stated on the first day of the aggression on Gaza that after Gaza, Lebanon would be next.
Thus, the goal is to attack Lebanon, not self-defense, which contradicts a fundamental principle of international law that prohibits an occupying state from invoking self-defense against resistance. The reverse is true.
Israel is the only state whose membership in the United Nations was conditioned on the implementation of Resolution 181 (Partition Plan) and Resolution 194 (return of Palestinian refugees). To this day, Israel does not implement these conditions. On the contrary, it has occupied all of Palestine, part of Lebanon, annexed Jerusalem, and the occupied Syrian Golan, and refuses to implement subsequent resolutions, particularly Security Council Resolutions 242, 338, and 497. It also disregards the advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice on the separation wall and faces charges of genocide brought by South Africa.
In its aggression on Gaza, which has persisted for almost a year, more than 51,000 people have been killed, over 150,000 injured, and tens of thousands remain trapped under rubble, with more than 2 million displaced. In Lebanon, the ongoing aggression since early September has resulted in over 2,500 deaths, more than 10,000 injured, and over 1.5 million displaced. The aggression on Syria targets civilians and civilian infrastructure, particularly in Damascus, including the Iranian Consulate, which was destroyed, killing many diplomats.
In Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, more than 90% of the victims are women, children, and the elderly, and the aggression continues. Israel does not stop at committing acts of aggression, occupation, and violations of the sovereignty of Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria, but also targets civilians and civilian infrastructure, destroying buildings with their inhabitants, wiping out entire families.
[Israel] targets U.N. peacekeeping forces, hospitals, journalists, refugee shelters, places of worship (mosques and churches), ambulances, and medical staff, using internationally banned weapons that cause severe harm to humans and the environment. It has even gone as far as destroying peaceful communication devices, such as pagers, wireless transmitters, and mobile phones, which led to more than 4,000 people injured in less than a minute.
Israel has committed several massacres during its past and present aggressions, including those at Deir Yassin [in Palestine] and Houla, Qana, Sabra and Shatila [in Lebanon]. It refuses to implement Security Council Resolution 1701, which was issued after its 2006 aggression. According to U.N. peacekeeping reports, Israel has violated this resolution more than 33,000 times and continues to occupy part of Lebanese territory, refusing to withdraw. This constitutes a clear violation of international law, particularly the U.N. Charter, which was publicly torn up by Israel’s representative at the General Assembly.
In response to Israeli aggression, occupation, and massacres, the Lebanese people have resorted to armed resistance, led by Hezbollah and several national, leftist, and Arabist forces. This resistance derives its legitimacy from Lebanese law, as successive governments have declared its legitimacy in their ministerial statements, and parliamentary confidence was granted on this basis. Most importantly, the resistance is legitimized by international law and U.N. resolutions concerning the right of peoples to self-determination, particularly Article 4A2 of the Third Geneva Convention of 1949.
Regarding the resistance in Palestine, in addition to Article 4A2, Protocol I of the Geneva Conventions of 1977 applies, particularly Article 1, paragraph 4, which grants rights to peoples fighting for liberation from colonialism, occupation, and racist regimes.
Israel refuses to comply with international law and U.N. resolutions. We recall here the New York Protocol issued by U.N. Security Council member states on September 25, calling for the implementation of Resolution 1701, a ceasefire, and Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon, as well as the Security Council’s Resolution 2735, calling for Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza.
In its aggression, Israel commits serious crimes that violate international law, including:
Crimes of aggression and crimes against peace as defined by art. 6c of the charter of the International Military Tribunal (Nuremberg Charter) and U.N. General Assembly Resolution 3314 , and article 8 bis of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC) constituting a violation of the U.N. Charter and a threat to international peace and security.
Violations of Article 8 bis of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC).
War crimes as described in Article 85 of Protocol I and Article 8 of the Rome Statute, as well as grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions as outlined in Article 85, paragraph 5, and customary rule 156.
Acts of terrorism, as Israel’s targeting of civilians aims to spread fear, in violation of all international conventions on combating terrorism.
Genocide under art. 2 of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide of 1948 and Article 6 of the Rome Statute of the ICC.
Crimes against humanity under art. 6c of the charter of the International Military Tribunal (Nuremberg Charter) and Article 7 of the Rome Statute of the ICC, not only against the Lebanese and Palestinian people but against all humanity.
The Lebanese Democratic Lawyers strongly condemn Israel’s crimes and urgently call on the world – governments, international organizations, and human rights bodies – to:
Condemn Israel, impose sanctions, boycott it, sever diplomatic relations, and pressure it to stop its aggression and massacres against civilians in line with the Resolution adopted by the U.N. General Assembly at its 10th Emergency Special Session on September 13, 2024, and the Advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice on the legal consequences arising from Israel’s policies and practices in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, and from the illegality of Israel’s continued presence in the Occupied Palestinian territories.
Work towards expelling Israel from the U.N. and all international and regional organizations, including UNESCO and UNICEF.
Cooperating with South Africa, Venezuela, and other countries pursuing legal action against Israel and its officials before the relevant international courts by providing legal assistance and essential documents regarding the crimes committed against Lebanon and its civilian population.
Form delegations of lawyers to meet with the judiciary in each country, including bar associations, judges, and law professors, to demand legal condemnation of Israel and legal support for the Lebanese and Palestinian and Syrian people.
The Lebanese Democratic Lawyers affirm the right of peoples to self-determination and support the Lebanese and Palestinian resistance against Israeli occupation, racism, and colonialism. They salute the heroic resistance fighters and honor the martyrs who have fallen as a result of Israeli aggression on Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria, with a special tribute to the martyr Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.
Ukraine
President Biden is taking steps to ensure that remaining funds (i.e. the majority of funds originally assigned) from the $61 billion aid package for Ukraine voted by Congress last April should be shipped to Ukraine before Trump takes office. If past experience is any guide, this is one way of ensuring that there will be money to pay US arms manufacturers for arms that they have already sent “on account;” it will help prevent a complete collapse of the Ukrainian army before Biden leaves office and leave Trump with a hot potato from thefirst days he does take office; it will buy Zelenskiy and his Banderite pals a few more Mediterranean palaces before they are finally given the boot.
The Ukrainian army still continues to offer Russian forces some resistance along the 1,000 kilometer front, but is being pushed back relentlessly. It needs more men but has a hard time replacing its rate of loss from death and desertion. Doctorow today claims that Ukraine is sometimes losing as many as 2,000 men daily which would be clearly unsustainable if true (and I dont hold my breath on many of the figures that are bandied around by commentators without sufficiently credible sources). Anzalone of the Libertarian Institute (Anzalone) reports that the Ukrainian prosecutor’s office has opened 51,000 cases of desertion through the first nine months of 2024. The number of Ukrainians that Kiev is prosecuting for desertion has significantly increased throughout the war. In 2022, the number was 9,000, and it had more than doubled to 24,000 last year. At the start of the year, Kiev was estimated to have between 500,000 and 800,000 active-duty soldiers and an additional 300,000 reservists.
Chinese Territorial Defense against Asian NATO
Sino-Russian Alliance
Global Times reports that Secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council Sergei Shoigu will attend the 19th round of the annual China-Russia strategic security consultation and the ninth meeting of the China-Russia law-enforcement and security cooperation mechanism in China from November 11 to 15, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian announced on Monday.
South China Sea
China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels have conducted patrol enforcement exercises in the waters of Huangyan Dao recently. These involved what Global Times has described as multiple vessels, including large thousand ton-class patrol ships and smaller, more maneuverable hundred ton-class vessels. The move came after the Philippines' introduction of the so-called Philippine Maritime Zones Act and the Philippine Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act on Friday. China accuses Philippine authorities of encouraging fishing vessels to illegally operate in Huangyan Dao's lagoon and alleges some Philippine fishermen are engaging in harmful practices like using poison to fish, catching endangered marine species and damaging the fragile ecosystem. The CCG expects to respond more decisively and specifically to Philippine incursions.
Weapons
An unmanned combat system of robo-wolves, or quadrupedal robots, developed by China South Industries Group Corporation (CSGC) can perform in cluster operations like wolves. They are capable of providing integrated cluster combat tactics for special operations detachments and infantry detachments. CSGC is developing a new mode for air-ground collaborative operations in unmanned clusters based on groups of ground-based robo-wolves and airborne drones. The robo-wolves can also carry drones to operate jointly. The quadrupedal robots are capable of performing complex clearance tasks in town streets, factories, mines, caves and other scenarios in a coordinated manner.
A series of new members of China's CH drone family, including the large-size armed reconnaissance drone CH-9 and the latest upgraded version of the stealth early-warning drone CH-7, have debuted at Airshow China 2024 in Zhuhai, South China's Guangdong Province. New products also include the low-cost drone CH-3D, the cargo drone CH-YH1000, as well as a series of air-to-surface missiles.
The CH-9 is the latest entry to the CH armed reconnaissance drone series. The length of its body is about 12 meters, with a wingspan of around 25 meters. The maximum range of this large armed reconnaissance drone with weapons loaded can reach more than 11,500 kilometers and its maximum takeoff weight is 5,000 kilograms. The maximum flight time is 40 hours and the ceiling limit is 11,000 meters, the Global Times learned from the developer, Aerospace CH UAV Co Ltd. When undertaking reconnaissance and strike missions, the CH-9 has high combat capability to detect and destroy targets as it can carry a huge amount of weapons. It can also circle around in the air for a very long time over the targets, the developer said.
The CH-7 is another super star airshow among the numerous UAVs that were displayed in Zhuhai this year. It is an advanced stealth drone for early-warning mission and electronic warfare. According to the developer, its maximum takeoff weight is eight tons, the cruising speed is Mach 0.5 and the service ceiling limit is 16,000 meters.
China has recently announced a J-35A stealth fighter jet that could enhance the country’s integrated combat capabilities. Reported key features include enhanced stealth, informatization, network integration, and intelligence capabilities. The J-35A is designed to adapt to advancements in technology, shifts in warfare, and evolving threats. It prioritizes information warfare, collaborative operations, and multi-domain combat. As a tactical organizer on the regional battlefield, it optimizes and extends the value of existing assets, playing a crucial role as a key node in future systems.
Chips
The US Department of Commerce has sent a letter to Taiwan’s TSMC , imposing export restrictions operative from today on certain sophisticated chips, of 7 nanometer or more advanced designs, destined for mainland that power AI accelerator and graphics processing units. Despite relentless US pressure on Taiwan’s AI chip exports, TSMC is expected to preserve some flexibility and room for negotiation, as it cannot afford to lose the mainland market. An anonymous industry source has said that it is unlikely TSMC will suspend shipments of the relevant products at this time. Global Times notes that while Washington pressures its so-called allies to decouple from China, the reality is that there has been considerable resistance. Further, high-tech companies in China have built sufficient computing power reserves, and the country's AI industry remains at the forefront of the world. Its chip production is also growing. In the first seven months of 2024, China's semiconductor exports totaled 640.91 billion yuan ($89.27 billion), a 25.8 percent year-on-year increase. Among key export categories, this was the second-highest growth rate, trailing only that of ships. By the first half of 2024, the ration of domestic chip production to imports had risen to 80%.