Freakish Incompetence of Western Leadership (2)
Excuse my sending this out again: something went wrong with the earlier distribution and few received it
Palestine
Action over Palestine is far too late and far too little. The term ‘inaction’ is more appropriate. More than any other crisis of our era the desperate plight of the Palestinians is symbolic of the growing strangeness, freakishness and sadism of Western leadership, rarely more openly apparent than in the odious smirks of Netanyahu, callous indifference of know-nothing Trump, pompous evasiveness of Starmer and Hollywood-style narcissism of Macron. One article I saw earlier today also correctly notes that the Global South has badly flunked the second major call this year on its leaders (following US-Israeli illegal attacks on the sovereign nation of Iran) to demonstrate real, unambiguous, strategic leadership.
So, OK, maybe Israel will resume or allow others to resume some small measure of airlift humanitarian aid which often kills people whoever it lands. Small mercy indeed.
Hanging over this dreadful scenario is an international leadership that has proven itself incapable to taking sufficient action in response to the threata of climate change (see below), and seemingly unthinkingly marches into a new era of nuclear warfare where the restraints once imposed and that protected the world from catastrophe during the Cold War will be jettisoned, while the US issues daily threats against its major competitor, China and commits to future war againat it (though China has shown no interest whatsoever in engaging in such nonsense), and while Europe (led now, not so much by the EU, but by the emerging new Fourth Reich - History’s Farce Version) terrifies itself with a non-existent threat from Russia.
In the US, when not thoroughly confusing the world with inconsistent, incoherent and self-damaging tariff and sanctions policies, Trump terrifies himself and angers his base over disclosures of a major sex offender that some believe might incriminate Trump, and, in a major distraction operation, threatens his official opposition with possible prosecutions over the notorious Russigate hoax in which Russia was falsely accused (on the basis of no proof whatsoever) with hacking DNC/DCC files which were plausibly leaked by a (murdered) insider, and with what turned out to be at best a pathetically underresourced and inexpert internet campaign that was supposed to favor Trump but whose influence was a negligble cypher when compared with US conservsative media empires such as Fox News, and the much stronger influence campaigns from other countries and other interests (remember Cambridge Analytica). The Mueller report indicted operatives of a small Russian enterprise but retracted its claws when they showed up to contest the accusations.
On tariffs, analysts are increasingly predicting that Trump will not follow through with his threat to impose 100% tariffs on Russian energy products and on countries that buy them because it would have such damaging consequences on global energy markets and would greatly escalate the chances of a major trading war, perhaps soon to be a shooting war, between Russia, China, India and Brazil on the one hand, and the collective West, on the other. Following a very brief meeting between the EU and China this week, China is showing no signs whatsoever of being intimidated.
West Asia
There has been a dramatic run-down of US missile stockpiles, due in large part to the above-mentioned illegal US attack on Iran. Up to a quarter of the stock of THAAD missiles may have been used up in the course of the 12-day war, which was hardly the most intensive war imaginable. Far from it. Iran itself continues to possess a large stockpile of missiles and production of missiles in Iran remains considerable.
I have commented many times recently on what has seemed a determined Iranian posture of openness to further negotiations with the US, even inviting an IAEA delegation back to Tehran (although not for the purposes of site inspection), and even amidst suggestions that Israel be punished and that Iran be paid reparations. I have worried, and continue to worry, that Iran is spending far too much time trying to appear “reasonable.” However, an alternative interpretation of what is going on is that Iran is trying to buy as much time as it needs to be fully ready for a devastating response to the next Israeli attack (or even, perhaps, a preemptive Iranian attack on Israel although that does not seem likely to me and is not congruent with its Islamic rules of warfare).
In the meantime we have seen the likelihood of upcoming summit talks between Iran, Russia and China which will have further positive consequences for Iranian readiness.
More worrying are reports that Armenia is compliant with the US taking charge (for 99 years) of the Zangesur Corridor between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which will give Azerbaijan access to its western territory and connect it directly with Turkey and other regional powers. This development, which has yet to be formally confirmed, accentuates the threat of Azerbaijan, an Israeli ally, to Iran. On the other hand,Turkey is currently distracted by the challenges it faces to its terrorist HTS proxy in Damascus, Israeli support for the Kurds, and Israeli destabilization of Syria through its attacks on Damascus and its “protection” to the Druze against HTS-Bedouin massacres as a pretext for its holding a swathe of the south of Syria north of the Golan Heights. Azerbaijan must balance its interests in sustaining an alliance with Israel, using that support for future aggressive acquisitiveness of Armenian territory, and helping Turkey extend a new Ottoman influence in the direction of West China, with the threats to Azerbaijan of a more hostile Russia.
Ukraine
Russian forces have already begun to penetrate the city of Pokrovsk, and surrounds the city on three sides. In addition, after a very considerable delay (two years), Russia is now poised to move on the city of Kupyansk (where there is currently street fighting and Russia is reported to have consolidated positions in the north of the city), and increasing pressure on both the cities of Lyman and Siversk, while Russia is moving towards the center of Ukraine east of the Dnieper. The collapse of the Ukrainian army seems not impossible prior to the end of this year.
Ukraine meanwhile, amidst declining flows of US weapons, and uncertain financial support from Europe (no matter Mertz-style rhetoric), has defaulted on its loans and has been D-rated by Fitch:
“Fitch Ratings - London - 13 Aug 2024: Fitch Ratings has downgraded Ukraine's Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LTFC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'RD' from 'C'. Fitch typically does not assign Outlooks to sovereigns with a rating of 'CCC+' or below.Fitch has also downgraded the rating on the 2026 USD750 million Eurobond to 'D' from 'C' and affirmed the other foreign-currency bonds at 'C.'“
As I discussed yesterday, Zelenskiy claims to be ready to respond to popular opposition to move anti-corruption influences directly to the control of his Prosecutor General, but it is not clear whether he will really do anything to restore them to “independence” (which, in truth, they have never been), or that he will not simply take direct control over them by himself. His move is widely thought to be the cause of an EU decision to hold back a fraction of non military aid and to postpone progress towards EU membership, but the reality is that Ukraine’s path to the EU is already in jeopardy - a meeting between Ukraine and the EU to discuss membership was scheduled for July 18 but never took place. Zelenskiy may have given up on EU membership and attacked its anti-corruption constraints on his bid to make his mates and himself very wealthy regardless of the outcome of the war.
On other matters:
UN’s Top Court Rules ‘Clean, Healthy’ Environment Is A Human Right
Zionist regime slaughters over 1,000 Palestinians seeking aid in less than two months
Israel Bombs Gaza School With U.S.-Made Missile During Friday Prayers
European Union-China summit: sharp tensions between Beijing and Brussels
WSWSArmenia To Cede Control Of Zangezur Corridor To United States