Foot Shooting in the Post-Pelosi Age
Taiwan
Mercouris (On Taiwan 08.04.2022) on Pelosi and Taiwan. Following a number of platitudes, and without any reason for the visit other than provocation, Pelosi appears to be on her way to South Korea - although the vacationing South Korean premier will not be greeting her. Despite fears to the contrary, and despite assurances of a strong reaction, and having made it clear that it did not consider the visit to be a personal initiative of Pelosi, China did not take immediate military action against Pelosi or Taiwan.
Thus China chose not to escalate. It appears China is not ready for a war with the USA over Taiwan. But instead, China is undertaking military maneuvers around Taiwan intended to show, according to Global Times, that China can blockade Taiwan. These are also directly intended as evidence of what will happen in the event of any further US or Taiwanese provocation. The exercises show evidence of the implementation of a no-fly zone.
Therefore, China have provided evidence of plans for: blockade, air control and invasion of Taiwan.
Statements of senior Chinese leaders make it clear the process of reunification of one China will continue, awaiting China’s full revival after Western colonial attacks on China in the nineteenth century. China is saying that the USA is trying to obstruct China’s modernization and rejuvenation, and its reunification with Taiwan, and that the West is wasting its time if it thinks it can form an anti-Chinese regional alliance.
The USA, through Pelosi, has violated China’s national sovereignty. The issue of Taiwan is purely an internal matter for China. Westerners might ask whether, if the Taiwanese people want to secede should they not be free to do so? But the USA has already, by the 1972 Nixon Treaty, agreed to the one-China policy, when the USA successfully won over China as an ally in opposition to the Soviet Union.
If the USA is now in favor of secession of Taiwan from China, why should it not recognize the secession of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics from Ukraine; why should it not have recognized the secession of the southern states from the Union? The USA is acting as though it does not recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan even while it does so recognize it. This double game is dangerous.
The One China policy is the fulcrum of stability across the Taiwan straits. Both China and Taiwan have been content with the status quo. The USA through Pelosi is now attempting to destabilize peaceful coexistence. The current crisis will lead to further enlargement of the Chinese navy, more Chinese hypersonic missiles, and the building up of a Chinese submarine force. China will also be looking for allies: the obvious one is Russia, which is loudly stating its support for China, and the support that Russian can provide includes wheat, metals, fuel and weapons technology (esp. submarine) and so forth that will help protect it in the event of a US naval blockade. This also implies that Russia can now depend more on China in the context of the Ukraine crisis, which will include more Chinese purchases of Russia oil against US and EU sanctions and against the proposed oil price cap.
The whole sanctions policy has been blown out of the water.
What does the US really intend with respect to Taiwan? Does it really intend to go to war with China? War between China and Taiwan is now likely coming. If the Taipei government feels now that with US support it can declare independence, China will likely blockade and invade. What will the USA then do? And how will Americans benefit? That is, ordinary people in America. Will there be a thorough discussion about this in the USA? If not, Taiwan is being taken for a ride. Look at Ukraine for the parallels. And the result is the destruction of Ukraine.
(Mercouris does not comment on China’s firing of five missiles in the territorial waters of Japan which was reported in mainstream media. This looks, if true, a very clear message warning against Asian countries who think remilitarization, sucking up to the Washington neocons and adoption of an anti-Beijing stance is a good idea).
Ukraine
On Ukraine Mercouris (Mercouris 08.04.2022 (2)) there were reports yesterday of growing tensions between Ukraine and the USA. Russia has made a significant breakthrough in the defense lines (in Peskiy, Marinka) opposite Donetsk City, and may be edging closer to the larger settlement of (?)….this is a heavily defended area and it was universally assumed that Russia would not assault it. But it has, and has made significant progress.
A Ukrainian soldier, on a pro-Russian Telegram channel, but endorsed by Moon of Alabama, provides a harrowing account of Ukrainian losses and how Ukraine had only two artillery pieces against 6500 Russian artillery rounds coming in each day. 60% of Ukrainian artillery was removed some weeks ago and redeployed in the south where it was supposed to support the coming (but never arriving) Ukrainian counteroffensive against Kherson. The whole defense line in the Donbass may now be buckling, and this is giving the Russians increasing confidence of wrapping up the Battle of Donbass this August. A little north of the defense line there are more reports of Russian advances on Bakhmut, via the town or suburb of Solidar, which is shielding the Ukrainian reserve forces.
The decision to redeploy artillery has created a massive row in the Ukrainian leadership. Ukrainian bloggers make it clear that the Ukrainian military is increasingly critical of the political leadership. The political leadership has pushed back via its spin-master who says that the great titanic battle will occur not in Donbass but in south west Ukraine, which seems to be a very sudden change. The new spin is of a struggle centered on the area of Kirovohrad (Zelenskiy’s childhood city), which was supposed to be the base for the offensive against Kherson (which, as far as Mercouris can see, has been called off). Were Kirovohrad to fall, then it would be difficult to argue that Ukraine had not lost the war.
Thomas Friedman in the NYT claims that relations between Biden and Zelenskiy have all but collapsed. The Biden White House may be setting Zelenskiy up as the fall-guy to take the blame for Ukraine’s losing of the war - it will all have been down to Zelenskiy’s incompetence.
Ukraine has launched more strikes on the railway bridge and the Antonovsky road bridge, near Kherson, but none struck their targets. Repairs of the bridge are well under way. There are also pontoon bridges and ferry crossings. The Antonovsky bridge is massively over-structured (by the Soviets), designed to withstand extremely heavy blasts. Russia is said by the British to have installed pyramidal radar deflectors in this area which can disrupt radar communications and HIMARS missile guidance systems which seem to be assisting in the defense of the bridge(s).
There is news of some kind of Ukrainian offensive against Izyum. These kinds of advances are common and are usually pushed back.
Amnesty International confirms that the Ukrainians install military bases in residential and civilian areas heedless of the risk to civilians. (The same report is also critical of the Russians). Given that the Ukrainians are seriously out-gunned it is not surprising that they have deployed their artillery in the way that they have, especially given western provision of weapons and the western position that the war deserves to be fought to the last Ukrainian. This demonstrates the folly of conducting this war at all, if the only method of defense is doing what the Ukrainians have been doing, rather than seeking compromise.
Zelenskiy has been trying to talk with China, suggesting that China be some kind of mediator between Ukraine and Russia. Given the high tensions between China and the West, this is another sign that Zelenskiy feels that his back is increasingly up against the wall - anger from his military advisers, Azov accusations about the bombing of the Donetsk POW camp, irritation from Washington, etc. Will Xi be interested? Mercouris is skeptical.
Taiwan (2)
Chinese military exercises around Taiwan are the response to Pelosi’s visit and they are carrying out a blockade of Taiwan making it impossible for ships to leave or to enter Taiwanese ports. The Chinese are making it clear that this is a dress rehearsal and it is being done on an enormous scale. China has banned the export of sand to Taiwan, which affect Taiwanese chip and computer production and its building industry. Con Coughlin (thought to be intelligence linked) in the Telegraph argues that China cannot do anything about Taiwan because its military is a paper tiger, a view that is alarmingly and shockingly wrong. Yes, perhaps the PLA is lacking in recent actual combat, but the same is true of Taiwan, and there is always the question of scale. Quantity has a quality all of its own (a Stalin quote?). Taunting China is a reckless thing to do. All that the Chinese government promised was to react and to taunt China for doing the right thing, and for not doing things that it never said that it would, is just silly. It may be that the ultimate plan is a blockade.
Surveys suggest that Pelosi’s visit may have provoked a tidal swing ofTaiwanese public opinion in China’s favor and that it will convince the Chinese that the USA is determined in its hostility to Taiwan, and that China must therefore use its enormous resources to construct or reinforce its alliance system including with Russia. It looks less likely that China will intervene on Ukraine to help bring about a compromise between Zelenskiy and Russia. It is more likely that the alliance will be greatly strengthened, as Mike Pompeo has recently indicated. The Pan-EurAsian colossus” is coming and will sweep all before it.