Fake Offensives, Dud Treaties and Prospective Coups

Kharkiv “Offensive”

The prevailing narrative about Russia’s supposed offensive in Kharkiv right now is summarized by Russia Matters:

“The assault began around 5 a.m. with massive shelling and aerial bombardments of Ukrainian positions followed by armored columns trying to punch through at several points along the border, according to NYT. On the first day of the offensive, Russian forces captured four border villages in the Kharkiv region: Strileche, Krasne, Pylna, and Borysivka, while also advancing toward the town of Vovchansk, about 70 kilometers northeast of Kharkiv, which is the capital of the region and Ukraine’s second largest city, according Ukrainska Pravda.”

Dima of the Military Summary Channel, reporting from Belarus at midday today, May 10th, is very skeptical. Most of this narrative, he points out, is coming from Ukrainian sources and we have yet to hear from the Russian Ministry of Defense. Dima notes evidence of a fake Ukrainian video which purported to show a Russian tank being destroyed inside Ukrainian territory which was actually taken inside Russisan territory (suggesting a Ukrainian incursion). Further, he notes how the governor of the Kharkiv region was sounding very relaxed and unconcerned. Zelenskiy looked mildly upset. And then, almost immediately, the US sent another $400 million to Ukraine. I would also note the claims by Ukrainian sources that the town of Volchansk is being evacuated, which is strange given that Ukraine was in the process of evacuating these northern settlements months ago. The implication therefore is: be careful, this whole thing may be a staged event to prise more money out of the collective West.

Secondly there is the issue as to whether Russia is wanting to stage a full frontal assault on Kharkiv, which seems unlikely given that it has not amassed the kind of numbers of troops that would be needed for such an operation, or whether it wants to do what it said several months ago that it would do namely, establish a buffer zone in the north east borderlands of some ten kilometers in depth which, on the face of it, would suggest evidence that it does not intend a full front asssault on Kharkiv. The city of Kharkiv is about 40 kilometers from the border.

The Battlefields

Along the combat lines there are reports of further Ukrainian disaffections involving the 112th, 114th and 116th brigades, many of whom abandoned positions in territory recently acquired by Russisan forces near Kupyansk in Kotlyarovke, Kislovke, and Tabaevka. Some form of top level corruption is suspected. In South Kupyansk area, Russisan forces have been disrupting supply routes between Bilohoriivka and Siversk, and continuing the use of FPV drones on Ukrainian positions in Spirne. In Chasiv Yar (Bakhmut) area, Russia has yet to launch a ground operation but is trying to prevent the return of Ukrainian soldiers from the eastern part of the settlement, east of the Siverski-Donetsk Kanal, back to the central part, and is otherwise engaged in the destruction of supply routes.

In Avdiivka area, Russian forces are consolidating their recently acquired territories to the north of Ocheretyne and are expected to move north towards Kalynove. Recent Russian attacks on Novooleksandrivka, Solil and Novopropovske were repelled, but these may well have been designed simply to test the strength of Ukrainian positions to the west of Ocheretyne. South of Ocheretyne, Russian forces have established complete control over the eastern end of the settlement and they control half of the village. They have also cut the road between Netailove (primarily under Russian control) and the village of Yasnobrodivka (still in Ukrainian control), and are closing off the salient between Pervomaiske and Nevelske. Further south, Russisan forces have established a cauldron trapping Ukrainian soldiers in the center of the settlement, making it very difficult for them to evacuate.

Russian forces are within a kilometer of Kostyantynivka, west of Novomykhailivka (which Russia took a few weeks ago) and have started operations similar to the ones that they deployed against Novomykhailivka. But the operation may take a month or more, so we can postpone ideas that Vuhledar or Vodiane will fall any time very soon. To the west, Russian forces have penetrated the town of Staramaiorske and are south of Urozhaine. In Robotyne, Russian forces have control over the entirety of the settlement and are clearing the immediate area of Ukrainian positions. In the Kherson areas of Kosachi Laheri and Krynky it does seem very likely that Ukraine intends a ground invasion south of the Dnieper. This may be intended as a distraction of Russian forces away from Kharkiv. But it is also plausible that Russia is simply waiting for Ukraine to establish a critical mass of men and equipment in this area before moving in to destroy them, much as it has already done in the recent past.

Seizing Russian Assets

The EU has greenlighted the idea of using interest on frozen Russian assets in Europe, a move that could generate a $3 billion a year to be sent to Ukraine. This would likely amount to much less than Russian confiscations of Western corporate property in Russia, and make virtually no difference to the military situation in Ukraine, but it could certainly ignite a process of disinvestment by countries of the Global South and of neutral countries from Western banks, especially if it seems that this relatively modest measure might be followed up by some more dramatic act of larceny.

Peace Manouvers

China’s Xi Jinping, has suggested a conference on Ukraine for later this summer that would involve the equal participation of both Ukraine and Russia. If this was to occur it would almost certainly pull the rug out of the proposed Swiss conference in June to which Russia has been invited (and which Russia has declined) only as an observer. Xi Jinping’s reception in Hungary and Slovakia may not have been as splendid as the welcome mat shown him in Paris, but wsas probably a good deal more substantial. These nations will likely spearhead the way towards a new era of bilateral relations between China individual European powers, giving China a beachhead, so to speak in Europe, that could turn out to be very important as NATO’s Europe pursues a fruitless and costly war with Russia over Ukraine.

There is confirmation that at the NATO July summit there will be a statement to the effect that NATO will not put boots on the ground. In future, according to a report in the Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera, all questions of arms deliveries to Ukraine will no longer be decided by the US through the Ramstein conference, but by the NATO bureaucracy in Brussels and Europe, possibly indicating a US decision to pass funding of the conflict to Europe, which will doubtless buy most of the weapons from the US. In short, the US is distancing itself from the conflict (which, considering the latest failure of ATACMS to make any difference, would save the war party some embarrassment). It would also be a brilliant way for the US, instead of giving away money to Ukraine, gain from sales of weapons to Europeans, who will be poorer and even less competitive against the US.

Russian authorities, meanwhile, are reported or rumored (as discussed in his broadcast today by Alexander Mercouris) to be issuing arrest warrants for senior Ukrainian politicians and officials, including Zelenskiy, for war crimes. If true this is possibly intended to reduce the perceived legitimacy of the Zelenskiy regime and provides further confirmation that Russia will not negotiate with the existing regime - which will very soon be completely illegal (it has been illegal since the US-instigated coup of 2014). Zelenskiy’s recent dismissal of Zaluzhniy from the Ukrainian armed forces (on the grounds of ill health), removing his entitlement to give orders, may suggest that Zaluzhniy may be involved, or is seen to be involved, in a coup attempt against Zelenskiy in the wake of the supposed uncovering of an assassination plot involving two Ukrainian colonels.

Palestine

The United Nations has voted heavily in favor of (something less than full!) Palestinian membership of the UN. The US of course opposed, along with a small number (9) of other countries and countries that abstained (25). The matter now goes back to the Security Council where the US will exercise its veto. On Palestine, Republican House Leader Mike Johnson is expressing great disappointment in Biden’s decision to withhold weapons from Israel, even as Israel is conducting an assault on Rafah with the near certainty of a corresponding huge lose of life in addition to the 35,000 Palestinians already slaughtered in Gaza and the mounting numbers of victims in the West Bank and amidst a continuing succession of evidence of major Israeli atrocities. The possibility of an impeachment of Biden has been mentioned but this seems highly unlikely, practical or, within the power invested in the President, legal. Republican animus against Biden on this score may have arisen from the Biden Administration’s seeming approval of a Hamas condition, now rejected by Israel, for a peace agreement brokered by CIA director Bill Burns, that would involve a permanent ceasefire.