Exceptionally Trump

New readers should know that my Substack posts are dedicated to surveillance of matters related to a central premise, and that premise, put at its simplest, is that the collective West, made ever more desperate and ruthless because of its unsustainable debt load, is attempting to beat back the multiple forces of multipolarity. It is currently doing this on three main fronts: against Russia over the proxy excuse of defending Ukraine; against Iran over the proxy excuse of defending Israel; against China over the proxy excuse of defending Taiwan. But there is no limit to the number of fronts that the West will entertain.

Exceptionally Repulsive

Trump’s inaugural address and associated commentaries on it show, first, that Trump is highly invested in American empire, a future of greater imperialism and of greater “exceptionalism” (exceptionally repulsive, of course), with the strongest military the world has ever seen (paid for, of course, by you and I).

This will indeed be exceptional if, as Trump implausibly declares, an empire of peace-lovers (this from the great Satan of anti-wokeness) will reign for ever more. Peace with Russia? Perhaps, just about, though unlikely. Peace in the Middle East? Barely imaginable. Peace with China? Never. Or does Trump simply mean that for the US the empire will be peaceful, but that its wars will be fought by proxy losers?

Domestically. he will drive this agenda forward, characteristically and somewhat counterproductively, on the backs of the poor and marginalized in the form of the undocumented, the documented children of the undocumented, on illegal immigrants and basically any immigrants that are not desirable. To do so, if he can work around a compliaant legal system and Supreme Court, which he has, he will annihilate birthright citizenship. Everyone, ultimately, will become as vulnerable as to the undocumented immigrant.

Territorial Imperialism Redux

There is no evidence, just yet, that Trump will hurry to implement his long-standing threats of higher tariffs on allies and enemies alike, recognized by most sane economists as a surest possible way of immediately unleashing higher prices, higher inflation, greater poverty. He will attempt to seize the Panama canal, he says, and to buy Greenland, he says. What can he do about Canada that would bring any advantage to the US other than the illusory prospect of imperial glory? Little to none. Trump is selling dreams and the dreams may restore American imperial confidence, but they do not of themselves remotely restore competence, especially if, as Trump suggests, the very educational system of the imperial center is to be rooted, or should I say, further rooted, in institutionally-embedded deceits, without even much of the religious claptrap that is generally invoked to sprinkle glitter on the pig of greed but whose influence has withered to the point of meaninglessness.

Or Balance and Spheres?

We have recently explored the idea that Trump’s declared new imperialism will usher in a return to a world order governed by the principles of “balance of power” and “spheres of influence,” in which the US, China and Russia would predominate on the basis, respectively, of a history of recent US hegemony; immense population and manufacturing strength; and geographical scope, mineral wealth and strategic positioning in the Arctic and continental Asia. This scenario will be complicated by the BRICS, bringing together the great powers of China, Russia and India, along with most of the major oil-producing powers and many contenders for regional dominance including Brazil, Iran, Indonesia and now Nigeria (as a partner member). The BRICS will help revolutionize the world and endorse the trend to multipolarity, but the odds are that this coalition will, from the beginning, struggle against many sources of strain and fracture, leaving, in the end, mainly the US, China, Russia and India and their spheres of influence as the predominant sources of real power.

This new world appeals to the Kremin since it welcomes Russia back into the warm limelight of being acknowledged for what it is: a great power and a strong power. Putin has issued a video message of congratulations to an incoming US president for the first time in his 25 years in power. It seems very likely that there will be a meeting very soon between Trump and Putin. If Putin allows his appreciation for Trump’s promise of a new “balance of power” order (disguised as “greater exceptionalism” by Trump) to sell cheap the hard-earned resolve and integrity of Russia on the issue of Ukraine, he will be committing a grave disservice to Russia and, in effect, to the emerging world order, reducing what should be the battle of titans to a little border dispute.

No Credible Deal in Sight, Just Talk

At present, there is nothing remotely “on the table” that should encourage Putin or anyone else to imagine that there is a deal available here that serves Russian interests. The best that the West thinks it can offer right now is a partitioned Ukraine and a NATO buffer zone. Acceptance of such a deal even as Russia advances on the battlefields and demonstrates superior weaponry, manpower (notwithstanding what is admittedly, a longer-term demographic crisis of low birth rate) and economic prospects is more likely to be a threat to Putin’s longevity than too casual a peace with Trump.

The Sky is Falling on Russia!!!

Russia’s economic prospectus, as we have seen through many recent posts, is a good deal more robust despite a lamentable tendency on the part of Western economic analysts to see only the bad, in insufficient context, without reference to the crippling economic problems of Europe and a $36 trillion debt-loaded USA , and then to exaggerate the negative implications for Russia.

Having confessed the other day that the Russian economy is not about to collapse as a result of high corporate debt, which was its last week’s meme, The Bell, neocon flunkey and sanctions-enthusiast as ever, today finds the end of the world lies at the end of Russian coal. The situation in the sector is so desperate, it says, that the government has already tasked Vnesheconombank to step in to save bankrupt coal companies. Every mining company that is not part of a large holding faces an unsustainable tax burden and social obligations, as the industry endures declining external and domestic demand and a double whammy from sanctions.

Russian coal companies have to sell at a discount, to compensate for the risk of their counterparties being hit with secondary sanctions, and also suffer from ever-increasing tariffs to use the railways thanks to the overloaded rail network because of how sanctions have hit Russian supply chains. As prices have dropped — to around $60-$90 a tonne at Far East terminals — costs have risen and there is no talk of investment or expansion in the industry.

Well, perhaps the world should welcome the fact that in Russia as in many other parts of the world including the US, the end of “dirty coal” is, if not in sight exactly, conceivable. There is nothing that coal can do that other forms of energy, in ways that are far more environmentally friendly, including nuclear power and natural gas, cannot. And Russia is very strong in both. But The Bell would prefer the world to end, and then Russia.

Oblivion for Europe

Will Europe slip into an oblivion of its own making, where its proxy war through NATO against Russia, will be settled through direct negotiation between Russia and the US? The thought is not inconceivable, especially in view of new evidence every day of great dissay among Europe’s NATO members and in the EC. No wonder, as John Henley of the Guardian has just argued on the basis of a recent survery (The Guardian) that European anxiety about Trump is not shared in much of the Global South. Switzerland, the UK, 11 EU nations surveyed and South Korea were alone in feeling Trump 2.0 would be bad for their country and for peace in the world.

“The report’s authors argued that their findings confirmed a general “weakening of the west” and the emergence of a far more transactional, à la carte world, pointing to a strong acceptance in many countries of Russia as an ally or a necessary partner.”

Southern Imagination: Mexico

Key to Trump’s imperial agenda will be Mexico, where Trump faces off against one of the more promising Mexican presidents for some time, Chaudia Sheinbaum, more promising even than her predecessor and mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

For the New York Times today Simon Romero notes that Mexico sends 80% of its exports to the US, so is intimately bound to its northern neighbor, which used to own about half of the US, and sends it much of its cheap labor (unwelcome to Trump though the undocumented portion of that labor may be). Declines in fentanyl deaths and migration (in the last quarter of 2024, Mexico detained about 475,000 would-be migrants to the US), are helping pave the way to better relations.

Trump’s threat of a 20% hike in tariffs is of course worrying, and Sheinbaum, inevitably, has said that Mexico is ready to reciprocate. The flow of Chinese cars into Mexico and Mexico’s $105 billion trade deficit with China have helped intensify Washington concerns. More important than any of that, though, is the power that Sheinbaum has to either block the growing presence of China in Mexico’s industrial sector (helping to explain why Mexico has surpassed China as a trading partner with the US), or, on the contrary exploit the Chinese presence in order to assert Mexico’s independence.

Sheinbaum has moved quickly in recent weeks to assuage concerns that China could use its foothold in Mexico as a way to gain greater access to the U.S. market. Mexico’s new industrial policy to reduce imports from China while bolstering supply chains to the United States might apply the brakes to Vice-President Vance’s enthusiasm for imposing taxes on remittances to Mexico valued at close to $70 billion annually and rising.

Perhaps the most singular point of concern is the influence of the cartels. However much one may blame the US for (1) permitting the growth of a market for drugs, (2) expediting the flow of highly lethal weapons to the cartels, on the back (3) of a history of abusive relations with Latin America that has fostered Latin dependency on criminal activity, the fact remains that the cartels pose an enormous threat to public order in many parts of Mexico, and also help feed criminal activity north of the border. There are plenty of potential pretexts here for forms of US intervention, including military, possibly in the name of a “war on terror,” that could also feed Trump’s imperial proclivities.

For the moment Sheinbaum is playing nice. A move by Sheinbaum towards China, by contrast, would still require the country to seek help in dealing with the cartels. But it would also push Mexico towards the BRICS and that would be a singularly unwelcome development for the US.

Southern Imagination: Nigeria

Ben Norton, writing for Popular Resistance (Norton) notes how in addition to the influence of the BRICS becoming ever more existential in South America, where Brazil is a founder member, so it will become in Africa, with the accession to partner status of Nigeria a country of almost 200 million people. (The population of Indonesia, which has just been accepted as a full member to the BRICS, is almost 270 million.

Together, the founding members, new full members and partner members of BRICS now account fo 55% of the global population (i.e. 4.32 billion of the world’s total 7.92 billion). Ten of the 20 most populous countries are part of BRICS, including seven of the 10 most populous. Nigeria is expected to have the second-largest growth in population in the upcoming decade, after BRICS co-founder India.

The three most populous countries in Africa are now part of BRICS: Nigeria, first, is a partner; while Ethiopia, is second and Egypt, is third. Africa alone will make up 38% of world population by 2100. By the end of the century, more than 8 out of every 10 people in the world will live in Asia or Africa.

With Nigeria added, BRICS members and partners now make up 42.2% of world GDP. \When measured at purchasing power parity (PPP) Nigeria has the second-largest economy in Africa, after Egypt, which became a BRICS member in 2024. The third-biggest economy on the continent is founder member of BRICS, South Africa. Africa’s fourth-largest economy, Algeria, was invited to become a BRICS partner last year in Kazan. The continent’s fifth-biggest economy, Ethiopia, also became a BRICS member in 2024. Nigeria is the top oil producer on the African continent, and the 15th-biggest crude producer on Earth. Five of the world’s top-10 oil producing countries are members of BRICS. Together, they represent more than 30% of global oil production.