Euphoria Popping
First, a quick reference to Gaza: latest reports confirm the handover by Hamas of 3 hostages and Israel’s proceeding with the release of over 360 Palestinian hostages, most of whom were rounded up by the IDF in the period since 10.7.23.
Trump did not rescind his demand that Hamas hand back ALL hostages today and said he would leave it up to Israel to decide how to react if Hamas did not.
Israel appears to be continuing with the original terms of the ceasefire (beyond the many violations of the ceasefire of which Hamas accuses Israel, violations which were behind Hamas’ threat not to hand over the 3 hostages that it has now actually handed over.
So it could be that Trump’s bargaining techniques have averted a crisis.
However, note that Hamas was prepared to risk a resumption of war and that Israel has been given a green light to start dropping some of the 1800 2000pound bombs furnished them by Trump, and doubtless has started to spend the $8 billion of US taxpayer wealth that Trump has just wired them (or is it sent in suitcases?).
In Munich the speech by J D Vance to Europe has focused on the hypocrisies of European elites - their fraudulent claims to military determination, free speech and democracy (with specific reference to the shocking cancellations on flimsy pretext of the results of elections in Romania) included, and has in this way provided the world with one more reason why the US need not bother with Europe any more.
Europe is no longer part of the great collective Western beacon on the hill, the paragon of freedom and democracy.
The collective West is decollectivizing
J D Vance has since had to angrily complain to the Financial Times that it the paper had twisted his words about possible US troops in Ukraine, denying he had said this was still on the table. So Vance, Walz and Trump appear to be singing from the same hymn sheet (see full details in my post of yesterday) - no US security guarantees!
Zelenskiy says the only security guarantees of any value are US guarantees. He also says the only Russian he can negotiate with is the man he has said neither he nor anyone else can legally negotiate with - Putin.
Zelenskiy has recently been trying to bribe the US with Ukrainian mineral wealth (which is actually either in private ownership and not for sale or under Russian control and not for sale). The US just offered him a deal for the US continuing the supply of weapons in return for 50% of all Ukrainian current and future mineral wealth. Even though Zelenskiy has no right to such an agreement and his signature is no longer legitimate since he is no longer a duly elected leader.
Zelenskiy rejected the offer noting, caustically no doubt, that there was no mention of security guarantees in the document.
But this has inspired Zelenskiy to try and interest Europe in ponying up a peace-keeping (i.e. war mongering) force and continuing to arm Ukraine in return for Ukrainian mineral wealth.
In the meantime Russian sources have noted (1) Zelenskiy is not a legitimate pointman for a mineral deal; (2) Russia controls a high percentage of these minerals; (3) Russia controls more and more of the minerals with each passing day of war; (4) Chinese investors are already in the Donbass sizing up deals with Russia for mineral exploitation inside Russian held territory.
The US offer may suggest to Russia that Trump’s attention can be so easily diverted by shiny objects, but latest reports indicate that the Kremlin continues to prepare for negotiations.