Enter South Korea

I have been pressed for time early this week, but wanted to provide a very quick update in advance of a return to more regular postings as soon as I can get back to my desk.

The global situation has not developed too much further forward since my Sunday posting. My overall impression is that the advances of rebel Turkish-backed troops in Syria have been stalled and that Syria with its many allies have demonstrated a convincing rallying. In Ukraine, as yet, US weapons are reportedly pouring in with a view to attempting to strengthen Ukraine’s hand in any peace negotiations that take place when Trump takes office. It is not at all inconceivable to me that these apparently desperate measures of the outgoing Biden administration also have the support of Trump if he believes that they are successfully “softening Russia up” in advance of his inauguration. Whether such a belief has a foundation in reality is debatable, since all Western negotiating positions that I have seen so far appeart to fall well short of even Russia’s most basic concern which is about a permenent, trustworthy, durable settlement that demonstrates respect for Russian security interests.

The most dramatic development today, however, comes from an attempted or perhaps actual implementation of martial law in South Korea which I suspect is another example of how the US pivot to the East in the interest of containing China is beginning to come apart at the seams, following earlier such signals as in Hong Kong some years ago and in the Philippines just last week.

AFP reports this morning that South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol on Tuesday declared martial law, accusing the opposition of being "anti-state forces" and saying he was acting to protect the country from "threats" posed by the North.

The National Assembly was sealed late on Tuesday night and helicopters were seen landing on the roof, as army chief General Park An-su took charge as martial law commander and immediately issued a decree banning "all political activities"…

Yoon's stunning announcement -- South Korea's first declaration of martial law in more than 40 years -- came as his his party and the opposition bicker over the budget.

"To safeguard a liberal South Korea from the threats posed by North Korea's communist forces and to eliminate anti-state elements plundering people's freedom and happiness, I hereby declare emergency martial law," Yoon said in a live televised address to the nation. Yoon did not give details of the North's threats, but the South remains technically at war with nuclear-armed Pyongyang…

“Opposition MPs last week approved a significantly downsized budget plan through a parliamentary committee.

“The opposition has slashed approximately 4.1 trillion won ($2.8 billion) from Yoon's proposed 677 trillion won budget plan, cutting the government's reserve fund and activity budgets for Yoon's office, the prosecution, police and the state audit agency”.