Electoral Tides in the Great Western Counteroffensive Against Multipolarity

Initial projections for the second round of France's snap legislative elections on Sunday show the New Popular Front leftist alliance leading both President Emmanuel Macron's ruling coalition and the far-right National Rally but falling short of an absolute majority. As of 13:45pm (California time) AP reports that the first projections in the 2024 French legislative election say a leftist coaltion, the New Popular Front, have won most seats, and that these surprise projections put President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance in second and the far right in third. This suggests a very unstable outcome of the election and, if confirmed, would seem to require some form of coalition government, leading the way to a very contentious and perhaps even inconclusive bickering process for the near future. It is too soon to make a judgment as to whether this outcome will or will not contribute to as strong a reversal of Macron’s position on Ukraine as, for example, was indicated last week by Marie Le Pen.

In Britain, consolidation of the results suggests that the Labour party’s success is less than momentous, exhibiting very little difference in terms of votes cast from its failure in the election of 2020, while the proportion of the electorate (including those who did not vote - 40%) voting Conservative has collapsed to around only 18%. Nigel Farage’s Reform Party ran a close second against Labour in many constituencies, and George Galloway’s Workers Party, after only a couple of months of exisence, performed quite respectably. In short, Labour Leader Keith Starmer’s knee-jerk pro-Ukraine stance demonstrates a reckless commitment to more of the same and, if not accompanied by very meaningful improvements in social and economic policy may soon see the demise of Labour.

In the USA, it appears that Biden is digging in both as President of the USA and as candidate for the presidency in November, even as evidence has grown of anxiety - in the light of private polling data - among major DNC financial sponsors, the “donor class”. Biden can justify his stance by reference to the 90% support for him in the primaries. If he is to be replaced, at such notice, it would most likely be in favor of Kamala Harris to take over as current President and as candidate for the election in November. Removal of Biden under the 25th Amendment would probably require more medical evidence than probaby exists. Impeachment of Biden on the grounds of his refusal to stand down in circumstances of public doubt about his fitness for office is very unlikely, given the Democratic majority in the Senate.

Elections in the US, the UK and France are arguably exposing a great gap between the governing elites (ruling on behalf of finance capital) and their electorates who, in each of these contexts know that their interests would be far better served by governments that focused on improving the conditions of life for ordinary people.

As I argued yesterday, the likelihood of any very major change in Iran is low, despite the electoral win of a so-called “reformist candidate, Pezeshkian. His expressed interest in better relations with the USA and the collective West does not, in my view, indicate anything more than a willingess to reenter negotiations that might lead towards a lifting of Western sanctions on Iran. However, in the light of US hardening of weapons support for a divided, fragile and murderous Israeli government and, it has to be said candidly, much of its electorate, I cannot see either the West demonstrating much interest in improving Iran’s economy, or Iran under Pezeshkian wanting to do anything that might reduce its support, at least in spirit, for the Palestinians.

So long as the Israeli genocide of Palestinians continues and the threat is sustained of an Israeli invasion of Lebanon, Iran cannot possibly forego its strong, developing alliance with Russia and the possibility that through Russia and perhaps also through China, that Iran can gain access to yet more advanced projectiles than it already has, including hypersonic and nuclear-capable missiles. The ability of Hezbollah yesterday to fire two hundred projectiles on Northern Israel in retaliation for an Israeli strike on a Hezbollah command center will advise Iran that its long-terms interests are best conserved in maintaining the alliances that it has, and that Israel, and the Western sponsors of Israeli genocide, are far from invincible and will be even further from invincible so long as Iran remains a significant military power in the region.

As for my main interest - the collective West’s counterrevolution against multipolarity in Ukraine, the Near East, and Taiwan, but with particular reference to Ukraine - my overall position remains the same as it has been for the past year namely, that while Putin appreciates, if only for legalistic reasons, the importance of keeping the door to negotiation open by offering concessions that he knows will be rejected by his oppenents, Russia is very unlikely to enter into actual negotiations any time soon. This is (1) because neither Zelenskiy nor Ukraine’s Western sponsors demonstrate a good faith indication of realistic interest in making concessions. Nor (2), have they said anything yet that would appear to meet Russia’s principal demands. And (3) nor do they do anything that could possibly reassure the Kremlin of Western sincerity, credibility, integrity, capability - not even appropriate knowledge, judgment or intelligence. Intimidation of Kiev by Azov, the Azov Brigade and comparable neo-Nazi elements in Ukraine, an electoral minority though they may be, consolidate an appearance of determination to fight to the end and to lose gloriously.

In short, I still hold to my view that the most likely outcome will be a continuation by Russia of a war of attrition that will eventually destroy all but - at best - a rump Ukraine and that will more and more enmesh the collective West in a military, economic and electoral crisis.

Russia’s position on the battlefield continues to support its progress in what is, in effect, a world war. Both sides are planning some war theater for the benefit of the NATO summit that begins on Tuesday. Ukraine may succeed in pushing Russia back from the village of Hlyboke in Kharkiv, where it has already taken control of part of Russian supply road to the village from Strilecha and has the second supply road from Pylna under FPV fire control. Russia, on the other hand, is making considerable progress in the Toretsk and Niu-York area south of Bakhmut and will continue to concentrate its offensive in that area.

In Kharkiv, Russia makes slow advances in the northern sector of Vovchansk, whose citadel area is all but destroyed and under Russian control while, to the east of Vovchansk, Ukraine has control over the territory that lies west of Bochmove across to Vovchansky Khutory and where Ukraine is concentrating forces for a likely counter-offensive in the direction of Russian-held Pletenivke. Russia is subjecting the troop concentration near the village of Tykhe to considerable bombardment.

In the Toretsk and Niu-York area Russia has established complete control over the settlement of Chigari and has subjected five Ukrainian brigades to heavy losses in the settlements of Artymovo, Druzhba, Vozdvizhenka, Timofeyevo, Toretsk, and Novgorodskoye. Ukrainian counter attacks have been repelled. The settlement of Pivdenne close to the border with Russia has been nearly encircled in a Russian pincer movement, and Russia’s next advance will likely take in Zalizne. The fact that one of the Ukrainian brigades, the 32 Mechanized, has been redeployed from the threatened Sumy area in the north suggests that Ukraine is running out both of reserves as well as weapons. Zelenskiy recently stated that Ukraine had 14 brigades in reserve but no weapons for them.

Elsewhere, Russia continues to make gains west of Adviivka. Having taken Sokil, it is advancing close to Voskhod to the west, is already concentrating artillery fire on Vovche and is close to encircling Novoselivka Persha. Future advances are likely towards the Karlivka Resevoir, Pohres and, most importantly, Pokrovsk. In Chasiv Yar reports continue to confirm that Ukraine has abandoned positions in the eastern microdistrict. Fierce clashes are ongoing west of Spirne close to Siversk. In Kupyansk, Russian forces have entered the village of Makiivka, which Ukrainian forces look set to abandon, and Russia has control of 80% of the southern part of the settlement of Pishchane and is moving westwards in pursuit of retreating Ukrainian forces towards the Oskil river.

Despite or because of these Russian advances the upcoming NATO summit looks set to (1) promise Ukraine entry, eventually, into NATO; (2) to supply more air defense missile batteries including Patriots (that are incapable of shooting down Russian Iskander missiles; although Ukrainians say that some of these Russian successes are actually strikes against fake air defense positions) and (3) another package of aid next year, worth $43 billion.

The US has said that Ukraine will be prioritized over other customers in the delivery of Patriots even as it has to scrape together Patriot batteries, missiles or other components that have been previously sold or supplied to US allies around the world. The “wonder weapons,” in short, are far short of wonderful. In recent days the absence of sightings of NATO global hawk surveillance drones suggests that NATO may have taken seriously Putin’s threat that Russia will shoot them down.