Double Down

I shall focus today’s post on the latest developments in Ukraine. I am somewhat constrained by other commitments, so this shall be relatively brief, perhaps subject to later development if time permits.

Aid for Ukraine

I notice, first of all, the continuation of assurances of further aid to Ukraine from NATO members, following up on the recent aid package voted by US Congress, such as extensive promises of more weapons from Canada and Germany, and a commitment from Poland to help Ukraine’s bid to compel young Ukrainian men who had previously fled to other European countries (including Poland), to return home.

The principal methodology for achieving this will be the refusal of Ukrainian consular offices to issue new passports, forcing these men to return to Ukraine to register for new passports, whereupon they will be drafted into the Ukrainian army.

For it to be effective, the EU as a whole has to discuss this measure because it is probably a breach in European and international law currently, as are some of the other measures that are being canvassed, such as the withdrawal by European countries of social security benefits from residents who are Ukrainian men of military age and, perhaps, the refusal to extend refugee status to them. This is what Ukraine previously did to its own people in the independent people’s republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. I notice that Poland is also mending economic fences with Ukraine such that the blockades by Polish farmers against food imports from Ukraine have been lifted.

Doubling Down

I see signs of gathering support for the idea of using frozen Russian assets in Europe as a further source of funding for Ukraine by the circuitous route of using them as a form of collateral for loans to be extended to Ukraine and which will later be deducted by the West from seized Russian assets if Russia refuses to agree to pay an equivalent sum in “reparations.” This is an extraordinary and extraordinarily devious, deceitful, criminal and counterproductive device that disregards, first, that for reparations to be made payable, there has to be a winner to the conflict, there have to be negotiations between the parties to the conflict, and there has to be an agreement by the loser to pay the reparations. Germany so far is opposing this logic on the sensible grounds that it may reopen a lot of uncomfortable stuff from World War Two. But the momentum, instigated first and foremost by Biden and his administration, is to ride roughshod over legal niceties and to proceed to grab anything that might be helpful in the short term.

What all this tells us is that the USA and Europe continue to double down on the war, and that they do so in ways that are increasingly sleazy and contemptuous of international law. Most important in this respect are the claims of European politicians, without any evidence, that Russia has a real intention to continue marching from eastern Ukraine to take the entirety of Europe - from Moscow to Lisbon, in other words. Russia has never expressed any such ambitions and it would be madess for Russia even to contemplate such a thing. Yet that is the kind of absurdity that European politicians, in particular, want their people to believe, so as, first of all, to cover up for the stupidity of the European ruling class; secondly, as a pretext for creating popular support for the idea of a more powerful machine of European governance that has the ability to raise its own money and armies and thirdly, as a pretext (not a bad one in intention, but a terrible one to puruse on the basis of lies) for creating a new Europe truly independent of both the US and Russia.

And they are doubling down on what is, very likely, a losing proposition or, at least, a proposition that has to be paid for with a million or more lives and the donations of vast amounts of taxpayer wealth to the US-dominated armaments industry.

Crimea

In reviewing recent developments I shall start with some of Ukraine’s moves, first of all, which seem to me to represent things that some pro-Russian commentators often prefer to look away from namely, the resilience of Ukraine’s fighters even in relatively desperate circumstances, a continuing flow of weapons that should by now have long been exhausted if these commentators’ assessment and predictions were correct, and the negative impacts of a longer-lasting war on, not Russia’s economy, which is robust, but on Russian lives and politics.

Ukraine has launched its third major missile strike on Crimea within the past few weeks, This one appears to have targeted an airfield near Hvardiisk, Simferopol in south-central Crimea and, for a second time, the airfield of Dzhankoy in the north of Crimea. This wave of attacks has involved 30 ATACMS altogether, of which eight were fired on Dzhankoy and four on Simferopol. The latest seemingly originated in Kherson region. Dima of the Military Summary Channel thinks that they signal yet another attempt by Ukraine to embarrass Putin by rendering Crimea relatively defenceless on the eve of the Easter holiday, the celebration of Putin’s reelection, and the historic march of Victory Day on May 9th.

Significantly, Dima also speculates that these are mere preludes to more serious attacks that Ukraine may be intending for the Kerch bridge during May. Pro-Russian commentators tend to dismiss worries about the Kerch bridge on the grounds that this is no longer a principal artery for the movement of military materiel, since Russia now has the road and rail landbridge to Crimea that it controls through Mariupol, as well as several ports and airports.

This view understates the symbolic significance of the Kerch bridge. This is indeed a triumph of engineering and of the success of the Putin Administration’s reaction to the US-supported 2014 Maidan coup d’etat against Yanukovych., and the persistent harrassment and bullying that Crimea suffered from Ukraine and Ukrainian forces following Crimea’s request to Russia to be absorbed within the Russian federation. It also represents a very significant and costly infrastructural achievement.

In addition, in other parts of Ukraine, Ukrainian forces have managed to recover the eastern section of Chasiv Yar, and are over-concentrating forces here who have evacuated from more difficult postions, pushing Russian forces back, at least for the time being, even while the settlement continues to be pummelled by Russian artillery, bombs and drones and may very well fall to Russia eventually if Russisa advances from the German Forrest area, crosses the Donetsk Kanal and attacks the main center of Chasiv Yar from the south, and if it also attacks from Bohdanivka to the north, once it has successfully expelled Ukrainian forces from Kalynivka.

Finally, Ukraine is continuing to pose a threat to Russia in Kherson along the east bank of the Dnieper in and around Krynky from islands of the Dnieper that it has captured and from which it can help prepare an assault from the west.

Russian Battlefields

Perhaps in retaliation for Ukraine’s attacks on Crimea (the extent of their damage, by the way, is still unkown), Russia has hit targets in Odessa, including a spectacular hit on the impressive architecture of the private law academy of Sergey Kivalov. Unusually in an urban setting of this kind, Russia deployed a cluster munition, likely to be highly dangerous to civilians. This may signal an escalation, or expresses a degree of anger that is rarely seen. Russia has also re-ignated the longstanding and rather tiresome fight for the seemingly meaningless land of Robotyne, this time appearing to take the majority of the settlement under Russian control and forcing Ukrainian forces back into the fields between Robotyne and Verbove.

To the east Russia continues its advances north towards Urozhaine and Staromaiorske and is shelling the settlement of Makarivka north of Staromaiorske. Elsewhere, Russia appears to be softening up Ukrainian positions in Prechystivka, Vuhledar, and Krasnohorivka. In Ocheretyne, Russia has established complete control over the industrial zone to the west of the settlement. It has established a landbridge between Ocheretyne and Novokalynove to the west. North of Ocheretyne, Russian forces are close to and may even have entered, or be within 700 meters of, Novooleksandrivka. Russia has control over Bakhmutivka and Soloviove, while west of Soloviove there have been clashes with Ukrainian forces. Further west lies the town of Sokil. Russia holds the southern end of the settlement of Keramik, to the east of Ochmeretyne, and is close to penetrating Arkhanhelse to the north. Its ultimate target may be to get to the main supply route in the direction - ten kilometers away (therefore, within artillery range) - of Vodiane Druhe, which connects with Konstantinivka. Further north, Russia is striking at the settlement of Vyimka near Siversk, and reaching out from Kyslivka near Central Kupyansk to settlements in the west such as Pishchane.

Russia continues to concentrate forces in the northern borderlands, attacking Ukrainian positions in places like Strilecha, Vesele and Slobozhanske. Areas of Kharkiv continue to be without power, or dependent on temporary powerlines from other settlements. Dima of the Military Summary Channel professes confidence that Kharkiv may be the site of a major Russian offensive after the holiday.